yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: gotta' wait for the 84 hrs. map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: gotta' wait for the 84 hrs. map 12z NAM extrapolation regarding next Tuesday........ its up in the air. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 500mb pattern depicted on the overnight model runs, even the GFS does not support a significant winter storm at our latitude. We need the trough to dig further south, deepen more and go negative tilt quicker. That would help deepen the low, keep it closer to the coast before pulling northeast. It's a Northeast to New England storm currently. Tuesday that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, MDstorm said: Isn't it about time for someone to offer up their opinion about next Tuesday based on "NAM extrapolation"? I'll keep my eyes on the DGEX for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: gotta' wait for the 84 hrs. map Im gonna say it. It actually looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: 500mb pattern depicted on the overnight model runs, even the GFS does not support a significant winter storm at our latitude. We need the trough to dig further south, deepen more and go negative tilt quicker. That would help deepen the low, keep it closer to the coast before pulling northeast. It's a Northeast to New England storm currently. Agreed, but as we all know, there is enough time for any of the options needed to materialize.....or go poof. as snakebit as I am, 500 still looks closer to something good than we've seen in some time. That in itself raises weary eyebrows. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Agreed, but as we all know, there is enough time for any of the options needed to materialize.....or go poof. as snakebit as I am, 500 still looks closer to something good than we've seen in some time. That in itself raises weary eyebrows. Nut It has certainly caught my interest and the weenie in me is semi excited, but guarded :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im gonna say it. It actually looks pretty good I remember posting last year after the 1/19/16 0Z NAM that at 84 hrs., it looked like I'd expect it to look if it was in agreement with the globals. BUT, my comment about waiting for the 84 hrs. NAM was said in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It has certainly caught my interest and the weenie in me is semi excited, but guarded :-) guarded weenie, ehh....so you're wearing a cup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It has certainly caught my interest and the weenie in me is semi excited, but guarded :-) but you already cancelled winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: It has certainly caught my interest and the weenie in me is semi excited, but guarded :-) Duly noted and understood. but its time to let your weenie out and play along (not with). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Think we need a thread for tomorrow morning, at least for the northern tier. Things keep trending better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think we need a thread for tomorrow morning, at least for the northern tier. Things keep trending better and better. Maybe expect the NWS offices to add wording in the afternoon updates regarding the potential , already posted about the ones in PA doing so. White out conditions, the event of the winter :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: guarded weenie, ehh....so you're wearing a cup? In this region with how things can go, wearing a cup is a requirement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4k NAM says nada for DC tomorrow, 3k NAM says 3" just north of Silver Spring. Not much physical distance between the two options, so the difference is comprehensible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: 4k NAM says nada for DC tomorrow, 3k NAM says 3" just north of Silver Spring. Not much physical distance between the two options, so the difference is comprehensible... Honestly, if you check the 850s, I think the 4k nam would be snow for a while at the end. Might be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 chances this keeps trending south up until game time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Temps never drop below freezing anywhere close to the cities tonight and tomorrow am. I don't doubt snow falling from the sky. And I'm looking forward to it if it happens. But there will be no accumulations near the cities except maybe temporary slush on some mulch and grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Wife and I are thinking of driving to Philly tomorrow night to meet family. Would this be a perilous journey for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This is during the "height" near the cities. Accums. lol. And it's in the low to mid 40's several hours before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think we need a thread for tomorrow morning, at least for the northern tier. Things keep trending better and better. Before anyone gets too excited, you should compare the NAM family of 12K, 4K, and 3K, which is the one above, qpf output from all 3 below respectively because the 3K is off it's rocker: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is during the "height" near the cities. Accums. lol. And it's in the low to mid 40's several hours before this. Not to mention all models are usually too cold with anafronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Not to mention all models are usually too cold with anafronts. Truth. This could be a good test of theories irt how warm the surface can be while still having snowflakes reach the ground though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z RGEM looks nice. Legit snow TV trend happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 FWIW, here are the 3 km NAM nest (to become operational perhaps next week) 2m temps for BWI tomorrow morning: 724060 170310/1100 6.50 724060 170310/1200 4.30 724060 170310/1300 2.70 724060 170310/1400 1.50 724060 170310/1500 1.00 724060 170310/1600 0.90 724060 170310/1700 1.70 724060 170310/1800 3.00 If its big rates were correct, this would be plausible. But as been noted, it seems to be a wet outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think we need a thread for tomorrow morning, at least for the northern tier. Things keep trending better and better. I started a thread for tomorrow's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z RGEM looks nice. Legit snow TV trend happening. Maybe the melting tomorrow will help cool the surface for Tuesday. sure, will go with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, eurojosh said: 4k NAM says nada for DC tomorrow, 3k NAM says 3" just north of Silver Spring. Not much physical distance between the two options, so the difference is comprehensible... Looks like 4k has picked up on the DC snow hole, maybe it has become 'self aware'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z GFS out to 45... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Friday system more bullish on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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