HighStakes Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z op gfs looks much colder for Friday am then 0z...fwiw And Saturday has high of 23 up here. Pretty cold for March That caught my attention too. Even the Euro has us at only 26-27 for the high. In fact the 7 day period starting tomorrow is about as impressive a cold snap in mid March as you'll just about every see on both the gfs and euro. Of course what verifies is a different story but even if the models are 3-5 degrees too warm that's still very cold. BTW we are definitely in play for a couple sloppy inches tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely more (large) hits then 0z . Low clustering looks slightly west of 0z to Me. Don't get me wrong. Just because I didn't see a notably change in snowfall means doesn't mean I didn't see improvements. A notably better look at 500mb on the 06Z gefs. Trough digs deeper and goes negative tilt entering our region vs the nuetral look on the 00z. Mean trough has shifted slightly to the west. And there is a sharpening of the low off the coast in a good spot for us that probably signifies that the ensembles see a quicker intensification of the low. It was a good run and a step up from the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You, me, Bob, and Cape....to the finish line. The crowds will be long gone and we will have the worst time ever but we're gonna cross that line damnit. Although 007 killed us all. Dude got really impatient waiting for the die-hards to capitulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I looked at the evolution of the "not good" 6z GEFS members: e1: Miller B that transfers from WV to the coastal. Mostly rain from 95 East. e2: Great Lakes low ruins our thermals e5: Miller B that transfers from WV to the coastal. A little better than e1 with front end snow. e6: Strung out system but we get front end snow. e8: Weak coastal and a tad too far east e9: Weak coastal, way east E10: Great Lakes low becomes the primary low and robs the coastal E11: Strung out, no coastal e12: Miller B, transfers from PA to coast. e13: Weak coastal, never really gets going until north of the Cape E15: Low bombs out a bit too far east and north for us e18: Coastal too far east Basically a mix of too far east, Great Lakes lows, and late transferring Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Although 007 killed us all. Dude got really impatient waiting for the die-hards to capitulate. I am still alive and kicking. He couldn't catch my fat and slow ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 A bit OT, but the 3k NAM, and to a lesser extent the 4k, has some hefty snow squalls moving through with the arrival of the real deal colder air tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I am still alive and kicking. He couldn't catch my fat and slow ass. Watch yourself. He is always close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Anyone that is counting on accumulations for tomorrow. Remember that we are in March and that we have had a couple of very warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Thank you. Really liked what I saw from the overnight runs and now the 06z. But we have been here done that so often it is hard to get excited quite yet. If we still have this look at within day 4/5, when the models hopefully have a good handle on the Sunday storm, then it will be a different story. Thanks for the breakdown. Agree on the whole it was another good cycle. People are acting like this is 24 hours away with the wild swings on every op run. I think the bad winter has made some go full tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ok we all good now??? I step out for a second, one bad op run and half the train goes crazy. I never said it would be a smooth ride so buckle up this train is going to its final destination, whatever that may be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Although 007 killed us all. Dude got really impatient waiting for the die-hards to capitulate. I faked my death. I'm tracking from exhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, nj2va said: I looked at the evolution of the "not good" 6z GEFS members: e1: Miller B that transfers from WV to the coastal. Mostly rain from 95 East. e2: Great Lakes low ruins our thermals e5: Miller B that transfers from WV to the coastal. A little better than e1 with front end snow. e6: Strung out system but we get front end snow. e8: Weak coastal and a tad too far east e9: Weak coastal, way east E10: Great Lakes low becomes the primary low and robs the coastal E11: Strung out, no coastal e12: Miller B, transfers from PA to coast. e13: Weak coastal, never really gets going until north of the Cape E15: Low bombs out a bit too far east and north for us e18: Coastal too far east Basically a mix of too far east, Great Lakes lows, and late transferring Miller Bs. Highlights the concern I mentioned. 5 have primary lows west of us. Matters not. We won't know what we are dealing with for a few more runs. Just commentary on one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, nj2va said: I looked at the evolution of the "not good" 6z GEFS members: e1: Miller B that transfers from WV to the coastal. Mostly rain from 95 East. e2: Great Lakes low ruins our thermals e5: Miller B that transfers from WV to the coastal. A little better than e1 with front end snow. e6: Strung out system but we get front end snow. e8: Weak coastal and a tad too far east e9: Weak coastal, way east E10: Great Lakes low becomes the primary low and robs the coastal E11: Strung out, no coastal e12: Miller B, transfers from PA to coast. e13: Weak coastal, never really gets going until north of the Cape E15: Low bombs out a bit too far east and north for us e18: Coastal too far east Basically a mix of too far east, Great Lakes lows, and late transferring Miller Bs. That spread of solutions seems preferable to consensus among the options that fail towards a single failing solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS is lol 00z: 2.6" snow (Westminster) 06z: 14" snow (Westminster) Euro has ~9.5" through Wednesday, but that includes the 2-3" that it shows for tomorrow (my backyard based on map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Highlights the concern I mentioned. 5 have primary lows west of us. Matters not. We won't know what we are dealing with for a few more runs. Just commentary on one model run. Not a new development though. There has been a primary tracking into WV on the GEFS mean. It actually looks similar to yesterday's 6z , but its a bit further north this run. But like you said, it really doesn't matter at this point. Still a range of possible outcomes on the table. If I were a forecaster, I would be very general and lean heavily on climo and say mostly snow nw of the cities, and r/s se. The other unknown is if/where there might be a jip zone with any transfer that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Was on SEPTA Regional Rail to University City this morning and overheard the conductor saying that "Tuesday's storm" had the "potential to drop three feet of snow according to Facebook." Ah yes, the infallible FCEBK weather model. Oh Dear... If it is on Facebook, then it must be true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I really want to see this trend better today. It seems like the 120 hour range is a threshold that's been tough to get past this winter. If we can keep this thing trending in our direction today I'll start to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Was on SEPTA Regional Rail to University City this morning and overheard the conductor saying that "Tuesday's storm" had the "potential to drop three feet of snow according to Facebook." Ah yes, the infallible FCEBK weather model. At least we finally know the answer to the age-old question "How much for Philly?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 All awesome FB snow maps should be posted in their own thread for lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I really want to see this trend better today. It seems like the 120 hour range is a threshold that's been tough to get past this winter. If we can keep this thing trending in our direction today I'll start to believe. I'd be happy with a hold of a 6z GFS/0z Euro compromise through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 When do we start a Thread for tomorrow? We have done it for much less this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I'd be happy with a hold of a 6z GFS/0z Euro compromise through Tuesday. Yeah me too. I guess instead of trend better I just mean not trend worse. But I also wouldn't mind a full phase and capture a la January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: When do we start a Thread for tomorrow? We have done it for much less this year not worth it. just put obs in the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: A bit OT, but the 3k NAM, and to a lesser extent the 4k, has some hefty snow squalls moving through with the arrival of the real deal colder air tomorrow evening. Been pretty much just following the snowfall mean on the ensembles thus far in regards to Friday and nothing more. After all the models have been showing a weak disturbance riding along the boundary only amplifying after passing well east of our region and with bigger fish to fry it was an afterthought. But your comment above had me looking back at the projected radar images on the different NAM's and I noticed something that stood out right away. For days now the models have been showing the typical look of an boundary over running event with the light snow on the north and the lighter rain to the south with all for the most part moving due west to east. The last two cycles of the NAM suite has shifted away from this and we now see the more typical look of a strengthening storm with the comma head shape of the precip as it moves through the region. Went back and looked at the GFS op runs and within the last two cycles they have done the same thing. We have also seen this as well on the Euro. Makes you wonder of what we may see on future runs. I for one will be following this much closer from now on because you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Good morning all! How close are we to having this go full phase and lock off? What should we be looking for today? Just a matter of digging a bit deeper allowing the trough to go negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Good morning all! How close are we to having this go full phase and lock off? What should we be looking for today? Just a matter of digging a bit deeper allowing the trough to go negative? Look for a V instead of a U is what I got out of last night....that and if that Balt guy is or is not posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 46 minutes ago, mappy said: GFS is lol 00z: 2.6" snow (Westminster) 06z: 14" snow (Westminster) It's just doing what is typical for a developing Miller B. That type of gradient is normal from SW to NE and we just happen to be on the edge so the run to run variances will have a huge impact over a very small area just to the SW of the sweet spot. The good thing is it is being pretty consistent with the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Its starting to look like tmrws clipper is going to be quite the over achiever for those of us in the far northern half of the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, das said: It's just doing what is typical for a developing Miller B. That type of gradient is normal from SW to NE and we just happen to be on the edge so the run to run variances will have a huge impact over a very small area just to the SW of the sweet spot. The good thing is it is being pretty consistent with the idea. Oh I know. Just had to laugh at the huge variation in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, mappy said: not worth it. just put obs in the obs thread. Posted at the same time as you but I am kind of the thought maybe there might be something more in regards to Friday. More so for the northern portions of MD then the southern portions. If there are no objections from anyone I wouldn't mind starting a thread though it has been years since I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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