PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: 6z GFS is decent, 6 inches for D.C on IWM. This run features low pressure developing off the coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'd take this and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'd take this and run Better than that. 24 hr. snowfall http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2017030906&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'd take this and run We all would. I am skeptical of getting 6 inches of snow to accumulate over a 24 hour period in march. I guess the one 6 hour panel looks decent and I suspect that's where we get most of this. we are definitely still in the game. I honestly thought it would be out to sea. looked like that's where it was going. On to the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Someone showed a vort max panel yesterday and mentioned "triple phaser".. is that still the case? looking at the surface.. to my untrained eyes... it looks like it just barely...misses the phase .. but I think phasing has something to do with the northern and southern jets.. upper level stuff that I don't really get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Better than that. 24 hr. snowfallhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2017030906&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=183Oh I definitely approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We see an improvement at 500mbs for Tuesday on the Eps. Sharper through that initially isn't as deep as the 12 Z run but then digs deep quickly as it approaches the east coast. At this point the trough sits at a slight positive tilt as it moves through our region. The way it is reacting with the dig have to question whether it is seeing a phase to our south. The overall look is so close to something more for our region. Right now it looks as if we would cash in on the initial ramping up of the storm. But if we could see that occur farther south we would probably be in the money. Just an adjustment here or there would put us in a great position as this low bombs. Slightly higher heights to the east to turn the trough to a neutral or even slight negative tilt as it enters our region giving the low room to intensify quicker. A little deeper dig to allow for a possibly quicker phase. Even a slight shift of the mean trough westward would allow better placement for intensification to benefit our region.. Wouldn't take much. That being said watch it go into the crapper now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 One thing that hasn't been mentioned wrt the EURO run is that temperatures at DCA spike to 40 Tuesday afternoon during the lull. The first part of the storm with surface temperatures near freezing would begin Monday evening around 10 PM and end around 9 AM. 850 temperatures rise from -4C to -1 C during the first part The second part is colder upstairs and begins around 8 PM on Tuesday evening and ends by 3 in the morning or so. 0.60" of precipitation with the first batch and 0.2" with the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: One thing that hasn't been mentioned wrt the EURO run is that temperatures at DCA spike to 40 Tuesday afternoon during the lull. The first part of the storm with surface temperatures near freezing would begin Monday evening around 10 PM and end around 9 AM. 850 temperatures rise from -4C to -1 C during the first part The second part is colder upstairs and begins around 8 PM on Tuesday evening and ends by 3 in the morning or so. 0.60" of precipitation with the first batch and 0.2" with the second. Sounds like part 2 is the upper level low passing over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, PDIII said: Someone showed a vort max panel yesterday and mentioned "triple phaser".. is that still the case? looking at the surface.. to my untrained eyes... it looks like it just barely...misses the phase .. but I think phasing has something to do with the northern and southern jets.. upper level stuff that I don't really get. IT looks to still be on the table but it misses this go round. Close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Much better look at 500's on the 06z gfs vs the 00z. Deeper dig and the trough is going negative tilt entering our region vs the nuetral tilt seen with the 00z. Now also is making an attempt to close of the 500's within our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Trending Better at 6z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Much better look at 500's on the 06z gfs vs the 00z. Deeper dig and the trough is going negative tilt entering our region vs the nuetral tilt seen with the 00z. Now also is making an attempt to close of the 500's within our region. Spot on assessment, as usual. Looking forward to the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: Spot on assessment, as usual. Looking forward to the GEFS Thank you. Really liked what I saw from the overnight runs and now the 06z. But we have been here done that so often it is hard to get excited quite yet. If we still have this look at within day 4/5, when the models hopefully have a good handle on the Sunday storm, then it will be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z op gfs looks much colder for Friday am then 0z...fwiw Nam, otoh, is uncharacteristically dry for the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z op gfs looks much colder for Friday am then 0z...fwiw Don't know if you have the snowfall means for the GEFS but if you don't there was a noticeable shift south with our Friday system. Now brings the 2 inch mean across the MD/PA line. Half inch is just north of DC and the inch line is just north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Its called reverse trend...Sunday system looked great too for a while. This isnt our winter, period. You may end up right but your justifications and analogies aren't valid. Sunday never reverses trends. That started as a New England storm then around day 8 started trending south and kept trending the same way until now which is about day 3. There was no reverse trend we only looked good for a hot second as the models shifted across our area on the way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam, otoh, is uncharacteristically dry for the whole thing. Nam is farther north then the globals so we see very little precip into our region. But we did see a slight shift south from the 00z run. Getting into the NAM's range so the farther north solution it has VS the globals has to be taken into account somewhat. The 12z and especially the 18z will give a much clearer picture on where we stand as the Nam broaches the 24 hour mark which is my threshold for taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You may end up right but your justifications and analogies aren't valid. Sunday never reverses trends. That started as a New England storm then around day 8 started trending south and kept trending the same way until now which is about day 3. There was no reverse trend we only looked good for a hot second as the models shifted across our area on the way south. That guy is just a negative nelly...last time he went off on a rant he blamed alcohol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Better watch out on the 6z gfs. It's trying like hell to develop on Ohio/Tn valley low for Tuesday. More amped and warmer is still on the table IMO. Anybody got the gefs for 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You may end up right but your justifications and analogies aren't valid. Sunday never reverses trends. That started as a New England storm then around day 8 started trending south and kept trending the same way until now which is about day 3. There was no reverse trend we only looked good for a hot second as the models shifted across our area on the way south. Why do you bother? Now if someone came out with a sound reason why this could/would fail then give them a response. Otherwise responding to this repetitive, "It will fail because the whole winter sucked' or any such other nonsense that revolves around this general theme is just a waste of your time that could be better spent looking over the models of which you hopefully enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: After thinking about it for a day I decided to up my weatherbell for 1 more month. I say, 'In for a penny, in for a pound'. For you youngsters that have no idea what that means. It means that after spending all winter chasing crap I might as well see this through till the very end. You, me, Bob, and Cape....to the finish line. The crowds will be long gone and we will have the worst time ever but we're gonna cross that line damnit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Definitely an improvement for Tuesday on the mean snowfall I thought it maybe was a slight one at best. The Friday system muddies the water somewhat so the 7 day total is better but the Tues system looks to be close to the same in my eyes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 06z GFS (along with 00z Euro) brings me back. GFS had 8-12 inches on IWM and looked noticeably colder - big improvement from 00z GFS. Now if only we can lock it in... 5 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 For those who can't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely an improvement for Tuesday on the mean snowfall First time in a long time that cold air advection increases at the same time that a generous slug of moisture transits our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: For those who can't see. I count 8 hits for DC (6 inches) and 8 total fails. Pretty decent odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: For those who can't see. Looks like a 4.5 inch mean for DC - not bad at all. Every member has DC at .5 inch or more. 8 members I believe with 6+ inches. I might be on my own but my goal is to beat the inch snowfall I had earlier in the year. Small steps to finish the season --- but I will gladly take a much larger snow (it's gonna be cold so why not!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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