yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I like the look of the 00z UKIE... tad east for our liking tbh, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 00z UKIE at 96 00z UKIE at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ukie a new solution. Turns Sunday into a Miller a out of the Gulf of Mexico that misses us then goes all northern stream on Tuesday which is probably not good, but no real maps to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 UKMET has 2 storms, and they both probably give us very little if any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 What a cluster these models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: Hahaha. Stouts are my second favorite. This outcome for next week is far from set in stone. Swear I said that a few days ago about Sunday....and look how that turned out. Technically, it's not, but...I'm telling ya...it's like something has been at work this winter to ensure it doesn't snow here for whatever reason. I mean really, this would be the second time this winter we have one storm miss because of another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro totally flat with Sunday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 nice little event for eastern TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Euro What is it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: What is it showing? I'll post maps. The southern stream runs ahead but the trough is much more favorable. It is the weirdest, most convoluted event ever. I'll post maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's your typical Euro, weird 30 hour event that always ultimately consolidates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This is QPF....subtract about 0.15" for Friday's event. And don't assume it is all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It starts Monday evening and ends like 2am on Wednesday..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'll post snow maps once W****l is in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Seems like a sloppy progression... did it miss a phase or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Seems like a sloppy progression... did it miss a phase or something? yes....front running wave develops off coast and then by the time the northern stream closes off, our storm is over...I wouldn't pay too much attention to the details...it is totally bizarre and goofy...but fun...and gives us hope..maps in a min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 SV is a bit faster than wxbell so may take another couple minutes for the pretty maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10:1....I'll post Kuchera when it is ready...standard wxbell algorithm where it snows as long as it is under 75 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 10:1....I'll post Kuchera when it is ready...standard wxbell algorithm where it snows as long as it is under 75 degrees Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 SV 10:1 which usually tends to be more realistic with the surface....nice swath of 4-8". All of these maps include the Friday snow..which isn't anything for immediate DC metro, but depending on the map it affects North and west to some extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Thanks Matt.... seems like wxbell just changed their colors a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 low of 14 in DC for St Patty's day. I love models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 After thinking about it for a day I decided to up my weatherbell for 1 more month. I say, 'In for a penny, in for a pound'. For you youngsters that have no idea what that means. It means that after spending all winter chasing crap I might as well see this through till the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: After thinking about it for a day I decided to up my weatherbell for 1 more month. I say, 'In for a penny, in for a pound'. For you youngsters that have no idea what that means. It means that after spending all winter chasing crap I might as well see this through till the very end. I hope you get every pennys worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 EPS says not to dismiss the Friday storm just quite yet. Slows the storm's progression a touch and this delay is allowing it to strengthen in a much better location for our region. We are also seeing a slight shift south with this low where we now have a 1008mb low sliding through southern MD vs 1012 mb low running through central MD. Snowfall means reflect these changes very well as we are seeing a very noticeable uptick in snowfall amounts in Central PA as well as a subsequent shift south into our region. We now see trace amounts reaching into southern MD vs the 12z that had them placed through DC. The half inch line that was running about 20-25 miles south of the MD/PA line has shifted south to where it is just a north of DC. And this is a gradient pattern of increasing totals until you reach the Mason Dixon of which the 2 inch line is just north of it. For those Baltimore members the 1 inch line is just through the northern portions of the city. For those worrying about how this may effect the Tuesday event a casual glance @ 500mb suggests that there is little to no impact though a more careful look may show otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I hope you get every pennys worth. I have felt good about this pattern for quite awhile now. And as I told the reaper in his thread I am on the pattern train and not one particular storm train. So I might as well see it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6z trended better for Friday. northern md gets into the action on this run. would be funny if this was the wave that actually produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 EPS mean snowfall otherwise. Very noticeable down-tick with snowfall amounts to the south for the Sunday storm with no change with the heaviest strip. Looks for the most part a N Carolina event with very little impact north of the VA. line. For the Tuesday event, of which a look at the stronger surface low suggested might be better, is indeed better and somewhat noticeably so. Has the signature distribution of snow seen with a low that is rapidly intensifying as it slides up off the coastal waters of the eastern shore with the heavier amounts in northeast MD. The gradient of the pattern is from lesser amounts southwest to higher amounts Northeast. We now see Washington firmly within the 5 inch zone. Baltimore for the most part sits within the 6 inch zone and northeast MD now sees 7 inches. Definitely an increase of snowfall from the 12z where DC sees an increase of 2 inches, with ever increasing upticks to the northeast where northeast MD sees an increase of 3 1/2 inches. As far as the rest of the run there are slight upticks in snowfall scattered throughout but nothing to signify a strong signal for a storm until possibly the end of the run. Final totals for the 15 day period, in a west to east gradient pattern for the most part, show the six inch line just north of DC. 7 inch line just tickling northern Baltimore and the 8 inch line just crossing the Mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6z GFS is decent, 6 inches for D.C on IWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.