Ian Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea there seem to be more threats after this. I'm not really going there yet and it's kinda crazy for the time of year but the pattern still seems loaded going into later March. This was my somewhat serious March outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd be ok with e11 E7 lol manages to get 30" in Hagerstown with nothing in DC... That is a remarkable accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ian said: This was my somewhat serious March outlook. Might have nailed that. Gefs is cold everyday in the next 16... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Well this is about the time the Sunday storm started downhill. Let's hope we can buck the trend in the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Might have nailed that. Gefs is cold everyday in the next 16... terrible. the models don't get these patterns when they start up. they are hard to kick. I don't think it will last into April but we could get 2-3 weeks of mostly it? which loses March at this point. tho euro ensembles haven't been as down every run, but do tend to favor more troughing than we've seen all winter into the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ian said: terrible. the models don't get these patterns when they start up. they are hard to kick. I don't think it will last into April but we could get 2-3 weeks of mostly it? which loses March at this point. tho euro ensembles haven't been as down every run, but do tend to favor more troughing than we've seen all winter into the extended. Yea this "colder" pattern probably lingers a while. I'm not sure when it ends but if it lingers into April. Obviously our snow chances diminish as we go and eventually it ends up an annoying cold rainy pattern. Up here I can still snow into early April though so perhaps I've got a few more weeks of tracking to go. The good thing is once late march we will get some nice days. It won't be really cold everyday. Even a -5 day isn't cold and if sunny would feel nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, Amped said: E7 lol manages to get 30" in Hagerstown with nothing in DC... That is a remarkable accomplishment. Looking at it on Ewall you can see it's a late bloomer that tracks right over DC, changing I95 to rain. Then it stalls over SNJ for another 12hrs with a deform band over NRN MD. Must be a closed H5 or that wouldn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I looked at the 12z JMA and it was similar to the euro but worse with the skip over. But then I saw this day 10 deal and can't resist...lol on the 18z gfs at 384 it still looks like a continuation of the same pattern and that storm is a 985 sitting right over your house. nothing like a winters worth of potential in the next 3 weeks. Crazy Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Incredible long stretch of cold daytime March highs.....gfs says upper 20's and 30s for at least 7 days straight starting Saturday That will translate to mostly 40s and low 50s in reality, and especially on full sunny days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, Amped said: Looking at it on Ewall you can see it's a late bloomer that tracks right over DC, changing I95 to rain. Then it stalls over SNJ for another 12hrs with a deform band over NRN MD. Must be a closed H5 or that wouldn't happen. Gefs thinks over amped and inland is a bigger threat then late blooming miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs thinks over amped and inland is a bigger threat then late blooming miller b. I think we would agree with that assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That or no storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z GFS looked like another step toward a big snowstorm. Oddly, I didn't think 18z GEFS was all that great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Hard to snow at 40 and 50 ...lol. you might be stretching it a tad with 50 next week. 30s for sure this weekend, probably low 40s Monday most places. If all goes "well" Tuesday and Wed, would be mostly 30s for highs. End of next week low to mid 40s. Back into the 50s by Sat. My educated guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think we would agree with that assessment. Looking at the h5 trough axis a west trend is possible and missing to the northwest might end up the bigger problem then missing to the northeast if things keep trending then go too far in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 18z GFS looked like another step toward a big snowstorm. Oddly, I didn't think 18z GEFS was all that great though. Yeah, I got mixed vibes from the GEFS. Seems like it was a step down at least in terms of the snowfall amounts in the mean and in many of the members (compared to the last cycle or two). But those aren't necessarily the best indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Looking at the h5 trough axis a west trend is possible and missing to the northwest might end up the bigger problem then missing to the northeast if things keep trending then go too far in that direction. Even as advertised it's trying its damnedest to pop a low in the mid Miss/Ohio valley area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The thing about March and cold is it can be 45-50 and sunny one day then sub freezing and snow the next. All it takes it is a cold feed to the north and a deepening low to the south to draw it down. Heck, it's going to be 65 tomorrow and could easily be a cold snowstorm by Saturday if things lined up. I don't care much about day to day temps. Pump the ridge to the west and over baffin/Davis straights and it can snow in April. I'm finding myself rooting for a big giant coastal bomb. One that could easily rain all over my yard for a time. But in exchange it would be an exciting event. March is prime time for nasty cutoff bombs. It's been so god awful boring this winter except for a couple wind events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 18z GFS looked like another step toward a big snowstorm. Oddly, I didn't think 18z GEFS was all that great though. They trended more amped but several too much so and so for DC the snow mean went down some while to the nw it actually increased. The number of hits vs misses stayed the same nw but decreased slightly along 95 due to the inland runners that go to rain. I'm not sure an improvement over the 12z gefs was possible though. Given the complicated setup and time of year that's about as good a signal as you can get 120 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The thing about March and cold is it can be 45-50 and sunny one day then sub freezing and snow the next. All it takes it is a cold feed to the north and a deepening low to the south to draw it down. Heck, it's going to be 65 tomorrow and could easily be a cold snowstorm by Saturday if things lined up. I don't care much about day to day temps. Pump the ridge to the west and over baffin/Davis straights and it can snow in April. I'm finding myself rooting for a big giant coastal bomb. One that could easily rain all over my yard for a time. But in exchange it would be an exciting event. March is prime time for nasty cutoff bombs. It's been so god awful boring this winter except for a couple wind events. Very true. I just checked to refresh my own memory, but at DCA it was 60 and 70, respectively, the two days before the St. Pat's storm in 2014. And even the day snow started (late day on the 16th) it was in the upper 40s before it cooled off. This has been quite the boring winter, and not just due to lack of snow. We did, however, excel in strong wind events it seems! One could argue that means the winter just "blew" all that much more, hahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The thing about March and cold is it can be 45-50 and sunny one day then sub freezing and snow the next. All it takes it is a cold feed to the north and a deepening low to the south to draw it down. Heck, it's going to be 65 tomorrow and could easily be a cold snowstorm by Saturday if things lined up. I don't care much about day to day temps. Pump the ridge to the west and over baffin/Davis straights and it can snow in April. I'm finding myself rooting for a big giant coastal bomb. One that could easily rain all over my yard for a time. But in exchange it would be an exciting event. March is prime time for nasty cutoff bombs. It's been so god awful boring this winter except for a couple wind events. Sign me up. Going back through the 122 years of data I compiled some of the biggest snows up here were late march and even some in early April way back. Have to believe that will eventually happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z GEFS probability of 3"+ of snow for the Tuesday event is 50% for DC and 60% for favored areas. 6"+ is 20% for DC and 40% for favored areas. Pretty good signal this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Very true. I just checked to refresh my own memory, but at DCA it was 60 and 70, respectively, the two days before the St. Pat's storm in 2014. And even the day snow started (late day on the 16th) it was in the upper 40s before it cooled off. This has been quite the boring winter, and not just due to lack of snow. We did, however, excel in strong wind events it seems! One could argue that means the winter just "blew" all that much more, hahaha! Exactly. I had a typo in my post. I meant 55-60. March averages are typically made up of extreme ups and downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 ERS since your in the "it's gonna fail" camp I'm curious do you think it ends up an over amped inland rainstorm like several of the gefs or a late developing miller b. Oddly they are the two ways we fail on runs that have no snow yet they are opposite ends of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ERS since your in the "it's gonna fail" camp I'm curious do you think it ends up an over amped inland rainstorm like several of the gefs or a late developing miller b. Oddly they are the two ways we fail on runs that have no snow yet they are opposite ends of the spectrum. The seasonal trend is a weak vort that leaves an area of light precipitation in the OV and our storm sliding out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The seasonal trend is a weak vort that leaves an area of light precipitation in the OV and our storm sliding out to sea. I would agree with this. I don't see us failing due to an overamped system and even though there's a mix of those in the 18z GEFS, interestingly enough the MSLP shifted a bit east and is slightly weaker at 18z from 12z. To me, that would be how we fail instead of an inland runner that went negative too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z GEFS probability of 3"+ of snow for the Tuesday event is 50% for DC and 60% for favored areas. 6"+ is 20% for DC and 40% for favored areas. Pretty good signal this far out. That's a pretty good signal... I would love to see it go up as we get closer... starting with the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: That's a pretty good signal... I would love to see it go up as we get closer... starting with the 00z run This is about when the wheels came off the Sunday train so hopefully 00z continues to improve at H5 as the 18z OP did. I want a coastal bomb even if it means I changeover for a bit -- this winter has been so boring in the storm department here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The seasonal trend is a weak vort that leaves an area of light precipitation in the OV and our storm sliding out to sea. Thanks, ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Thanks, ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.