psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Why are you rooting for rain in my yard? I thought we were friends. What we want to root for is an identical trough axis that digs deeper then closes off just south or SW of us. We don't even really need much more improvement at h5, but I'll take it. The weird slow phase and strung out look initially limits it a bit. Get a cleaner phase and this could become bigger here. Of course one way to almost ensure that would be a slightly better dig/cutoff. So your right. This has absolute monster upside though. You have excellently covered the possible bust scenario as well. Interesting days ahead me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Nice clipper to go with it the following Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I know a lot will depend on the evolution of the storm Tuesday but that is one nasty vort dropping down thur/fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GFS takes a weak low north of us Thursday into Friday. Verbatim its just mid 30s rain down here while Pa 5-10" but another threat to look out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Gfs has a near miss on day 9 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: GFS takes a weak low north of us Thursday into Friday. Verbatim its just mid 30s rain down here while Pa 5-10" but another threat to look out for. Not with snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, poolz1 said: I know a lot will depend on the evolution of the storm Tuesday but that is one nasty vort dropping down thur/fri. 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Nice clipper to go with it the following Friday! Winter about to arrive. Cfs says we will have a snowy season. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Bob... could you take screen shot of a panel and put arrows on it to show us. It is not often we see a triple phase. I want to see exactly what you are looking at for my own education. Look at my graphic and then Bob's graphic...You can see the 3 streams when the trough is positive. Then when it goes neutral in Bob's graphic you can see them almost phase..Looks like the PJ lags slightly too much and trough closes off too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here you go. Polar, NS, and SS all lined up to shake hands. Thanks but I don't see a southern stream in that. I see the no and polar. Not questioning but just don't see it. Edit: when I go back to about 100 hours, I can see the ss energy. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I know a lot will depend on the evolution of the storm Tuesday but that is one nasty vort dropping down thur/fri. I don't think the tues storm is much worry if the vort is as strong (or stronger) than being advertised right now. Sucks that it's still at least 3 days away before we really know what we're dealing with there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Winter about to arrive. Cfs says we will have a snowy season. Lol It has said that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I don't think the tues storm is much worry if the vort is as strong (or stronger) than being advertised right now. Sucks that it's still at least 3 days away before we really know what we're dealing with there. Yep and modeled strength of these vorts has bit us in the ass more than once. Sunday in case anybody has forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It has said that before. Spring for Winter and Winter for Spring are not bad trade offs imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't think the tues storm is much worry if the vort is as strong (or stronger) than being advertised right now. Sucks that it's still at least 3 days away before we really know what we're dealing with there. I just take it as confirming that Tue will be a KU....That how we roll with most our biggies. Usually a follow up before the trough pulls out for good. Joking of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Wow. I haven't been on here such lunchtime and I had about 8 pages to catch up on! I've been rooting for the Tuesday storm instead of Sunday since Monday when it looked with a screwed Sunday storm would enhance Tuesday. And anyway, a weekend storm is a perfectly good waste of a snow day. I can't help but get excited about the positive trends with the models in the past 24 hours. I know that most people are pessimistic about getting any snow this winter, and March does make it more difficult, but we don't really have anything to lose at this point (except the cherry blossoms). Is there any potential of this Friday's clipper inching its way to Northern Virginia? I wasn't sure if it was completely gone or if there is still potential in the area. Clippers are so unpredictable and I saw someone mention it moving slightly south. Thanks for all the great input! I've learned a lot about Miller A's and B's... I just call them all "Coastal Lows"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 46 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Me likey http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017030818&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=0 I didn't get a chance to say more on this, so let me now. You knew it was going to be a better result than prior runs if you clicked on the left arrow where it says "Prev Runs." If you click the left arrow, the prior runs didn't have the blue shading in the Midwest and South meeting as this run did. That's an easy way to check on a phasings of the 2 streams. In the future, you should always compare the prior runs and it gives you a decent indication of the model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I didn't get a chance to say more on this, so let me now. You knew it was going to be a better result than prior runs if you clicked on the left arrow where it says "Prev Runs." If you click the left arrow, the prior runs didn't have the blue shading in the Midwest and South meeting as this run did. That's an easy way to check on a phasings of the 2 streams. In the future, you should always compare the prior runs and it gives you a decent indication of the model trends. For some damn reason, I can't get the 120 hour map to pull up in the link. Go to 120 hours and you'll see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Another h5 view at 144...BeautifulSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Winter about to arrive. Cfs says we will have a snowy season. Lol I don't take the highest depiction literally, but when they are all predicting a good amount of snow, even when it seems like winter is over, it usually ends up happening. I wouldn't underestimate their reliability... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I don't take the highest depiction literally, but when they are all predicting a good amount of snow, even when it seems like winter is over, it usually ends up happening. I wouldn't underestimate their reliability... CFS snow maps are an OK signal for cold (slightly above dart throwing) but terrible for snow. As you might imagine, the p-type isn't terribly sophisticatedSent from my Pixel using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I don't know if anyone's mentioned it but the DGEX is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: I don't take the highest depiction literally, but when they are all predicting a good amount of snow, even when it seems like winter is over, it usually ends up happening. I wouldn't underestimate their reliability... It was a joke. Those things are clown maps at best. But snowy is better then not and even by cfs standards those are crazy and by mid March standards unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I looked at the 12z JMA and it was similar to the euro but worse with the skip over. But then I saw this day 10 deal and can't resist...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Gefs? What's wrong with you guys. Do what we pay you for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z GEFS You get to keep your job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z GEFS I'd be ok with e11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd be ok with e11 Damn, I thought we were in this together. Screw u! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I looked at the 12z JMA and it was similar to the euro but worse with the skip over. But then I saw this day 10 deal and can't resist...lol Yea there seem to be more threats after this. I'm not really going there yet and it's kinda crazy for the time of year but the pattern still seems loaded going into later March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 What a frustrating setup but mainly because it's so late. Then again some aspects of it are only possible in a season like this because it is late. I've stood with the idea that it will be tough to get through this period without some snow. I wouldn't really rule out accumulation from any of the opportunities, although you can make your own educated assumptions based on how deep they are into the future. The third one is the hardest IMO but it's become the main focus obviously. It also has a high end ceiling it would appear. Obviously your odds are better if you are wester and higher and me. Happy hour GFS almost a classic. Root for the southern stream on 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.