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March med-long range disco thread 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Good! Last time they were impressive for Monday, well, you know...........:fulltilt:

Over 50% of the members have a complete non-event or a very minor one. That's probably the most important stat. The majority favors nothing to not much. Good benchmark moving forward. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS mean and low location plots show the biggest risk it too far east in general for everyone but inside of the means is really just shotgun blasts all over the place. 

How do heights look?

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure people are using the same definitions of Miller A's and Miller B's in here. Are people just talking about the surface low--- basically just one low during the lifetime from GOM northeastward being Miller A? Primary low in OH Valley/transfer to coast being Miller B? Does that primary low have to originate from northern stream energy? Or are people saying Miller B vs. Miller A is simply northern stream vs. southern stream (what to do about phasing then)? 

'Clean' Miller A's are rare, as pointed out earlier. Even some of our best events (like 2/5-6/10) have had a hybrid aspect of a decently strong primary drive into the OH or TN Valley. KU doesn't even use those terms, but instead focuses on whether coastal redevelopment happens. So they put PD1 in the redevelopment camp. 

 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

EPS change

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Over 50% of the members have a complete non-event or a very minor one. That's probably the most important stat. The majority favors nothing to not much. Good benchmark moving forward. 

why do we keep thinking its going to snow this winter. today has been a disaster. No Friday storm..no sunday storm and no tuesday storm and no other storm

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

LWX afternoon AFD re Tuesday: 

The suppressed and sheared out shortwave leaves behind a ribbon of
mid-level vorticity and a rather expansive baroclinic zone from the
Gulf of Mexico across northern Florida into the southwestern
Atlantic. As ridging builds over the western CONUS, a shortwave
trough digs south and taps into this baroclinicity and will likely
result in cyclogenesis somewhere near or over the eastern CONUS.
Guidance has trended towards a more amplified pattern for early next
week, but the details are far from certain this far out. This bears
close watching, though, especially given the antecedently cold
airmass

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, gymengineer said:

I'm not sure people are using the same definitions of Miller A's and Miller B's in here. Are people just talking about the surface low--- basically just one low during the lifetime from GOM northeastward being Miller A? Primary low in OH Valley/transfer to coast being Miller B? Does that primary low have to originate from northern stream energy? Or are people saying Miller B vs. Miller A is simply northern stream vs. southern stream (what to do about phasing then)? 

'Clean' Miller A's are rare, as pointed out earlier. Even some of our best events (like 2/5-6/10) have had a hybrid aspect of a decently strong primary drive into the OH or TN Valley. KU doesn't even use those terms, but instead focuses on whether coastal redevelopment happens. So they put 1/96 in the redevelopment camp. 

 

We have this discussion every other year or so. There are clear classics of each and a lot of in betweeners. I personally put them in 2 distinct camps. 

Any approach from the gulf coast is a good coastal track. Miller A,B, or Z...I don't care. When a low tracks from the gulf coast into the TN valley or even WV, it's usually a very good storm here. Basically, when the precip shield is tapping the gulf, we're in good shape. 

Any distinct NS vort that tracks through the country's midsection and turns north before jumping the coast is usually a sign of big problems here. Those are always called miller B's. Other ones like into the TN valley and such are typically hybrids. 

At the end of the day I don't care what they're called. You and me and a lot of regulars here know exactly what to look for. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Scraff said:

Curious. Does anyone think Sunday can still make a comeback? Or is that 100% DOA.

My vote is for it to make a comeback with Tuesday's event.  They will become one in the same. ;)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

And to add to my previous post. Miller A's transfer all the time. It's extremely uncommon for a low to first form off the SC coast then then cruise right up the entire gulfstream. 

The more typical miller A is a track over land through the deep south and then turn the corner into SC (over land) and then jump the coast somewhere around there. A transfer doesn't mean miller B. That disco can get muddy. 

Dropping all references to names, the problem storms are when a fairly moisture starved vort tracks anywhere into WV or north before jumping. The issue is we won't get much if any precip leading in. When a storm taps the gulf and heads into TN, we have a much better chance of WAA precip before the transfer so we'll always end up with something even if we get screwed out of re-development. 

Sure, Feb 2010 was a miller B. But it was also loaded up good before any transfer took place. The 12z euro shows a paltry moisture starved vort going into WV. There's basically light snow at best associated with that anywhere around it. Then it bombs and delivers. So we get nothing before the transfer. THAT is my issue with it. Those kinds of deals are the least likely to work out. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

And to add to my previous post. Miller A's transfer all the time. It's extremely uncommon for a low to first form off the SC coast then then cruise right up the entire gulfstream. 

The more typical miller A is a track over land through the deep south and then turn the corner into SC (over land) and then jump the coast somewhere around there. A transfer doesn't mean miller B. That disco can get muddy. 

Dropping all references to names, the problem storms are when a fairly moisture starved vort tracks anywhere into WV or north before jumping. The issue is we won't get much if any precip leading in. When a storm taps the gulf and heads into TN, we have a much better chance of WAA precip before the transfer so we'll always end up with something even if we get screwed out of re-development. 

Sure, Feb 2010 was a miller B. But it was also loaded up good before any transfer took place. The 12z euro shows a paltry moisture starved vort going into WV. There's basically light snow at best associated with that anywhere around it. Then it bombs and delivers. So we get nothing before the transfer. THAT is my issue with it. Those kinds of deals are the least likely to work out. 

fwiw, ku says hybrid A+Bs are the big hits.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, BTRWx said:

fwiw, ku says hybrid A/Bs are the big hits.

True miller A's that never transfer anywhere are very rare. And they also affect a much smaller piece of real estate. Hybrids can cover A TON of ground. Just like numerical indices, storm types are misleading. 

Dig the tues vort into say Arkansas or northern AL/MS and it can be called a Miller Lite and I couldn't care less because I'll be outside shoveling copious amounts of snow. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS mean and low location plots show the biggest risk it too far east in general for everyone but inside of the means is really just shotgun blasts all over the place. 

True but the mean did still increase about an inch across the area for the day 6-8 period. That's pretty good for that time range. It was a positive just not as positive as we would like. 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

And to add to my previous post. Miller A's transfer all the time. It's extremely uncommon for a low to first form off the SC coast then then cruise right up the entire gulfstream. 

The more typical miller A is a track over land through the deep south and then turn the corner into SC (over land) and then jump the coast somewhere around there. A transfer doesn't mean miller B. That disco can get muddy. 

Dropping all references to names, the problem storms are when a fairly moisture starved vort tracks anywhere into WV or north before jumping. The issue is we won't get much if any precip leading in. When a storm taps the gulf and heads into TN, we have a much better chance of WAA precip before the transfer so we'll always end up with something even if we get screwed out of re-development. 

Sure, Feb 2010 was a miller B. But it was also loaded up good before any transfer took place. The 12z euro shows a paltry moisture starved vort going into WV. There's basically light snow at best associated with that anywhere around it. Then it bombs and delivers. So we get nothing before the transfer. THAT is my issue with it. Those kinds of deals are the least likely to work out. 

Yup, I got what you were talking about in terms *this* scenario shown by the 12Z models. 

This is completely tongue in cheek, but maybe board mood is a simpler determiner. Nervous/complicated timing/wish it were 6 hours slower = Miller B. Lock it up/models unanimous/celebrate = Miller A. :)

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