dallen7908 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I remember driving from Greenbelt (trace) to east-Bowie (1/2 inch and "blizzard-like" conditions) and thinking I was lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Hatteras transfer or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Maybe I'm a glass half full guy, but the Euro just did a complete 180 with its evolution vs 0z (trending way better in that department). Yes, its current depiction is generally a heartbreak for us as we need a more southern transfer but it was a nice step in the right direction. Exactly. Look, if it was Saturday or Sunday, I would get the frustration and want to start kicking babies and dogs, too. It's Wednesday afternoon. Look at what just happened with this last storm. It started as a big storm in PA and is now nowhere to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's still obviously way early to get fired up about this storm, but I'm surprised how upset people are. This run of the Euro is a HUGE improvement and big snows are literally just up 95. A slightly earlier transfer/slightly stronger storm and we are in the big snows. As it is, even Baltimore is close to double digits on this run. I'm not really understanding why people are upset. If the Euro jumps as much with the next run as it did this run, we would get pummeled. The problem is, there is way too much "luck" involved here. Anything close has NOT worked out here this year. And as somebody else just said, this is almost the same as December 2010--which was also a La Niña, btw. That's why folks are upset, lol This has screwjob written all over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Well I guess with each model run... we will wait to see how far it digs... We should be able to tell pretty early in each run to the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: As I said earlier, it's not the verbatim output. It's the evolution. Central WV to OBX/VA Beach transfers have a long and storied history here. Verbatim it's a solution loaded with heartbreak. Time to root for a Memphis to Myrtle transfer. Isn't this about when things kept trending south for Sunday? Just saying. I'm VERY aware of the downside here but if the recent trends hold its movingbthe right way. Get another 150 miles south and we're ok. I say 150 so we're safe when the inevitable 50 mile north shift at the last minute happens. Of we're sitting on the edge like this 48 hours out we're in trouble. But I kind of expect some more trending in our favor before then. Hopefully enough to survive a late adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Amen to that! Yeah, I was up in Philly visiting my parents for Christmas that year, and came home a bit early, knowing they'd get hit (didn't care to drive in that!). They got about a foot in Philly I recall, and northeast MD got maybe a couple inches I think. I actually ended up with 5, but it was only because I somehow stayed in the light to moderate snow bands for many hours on the southwestern edge, while places literally a few miles east were getting heavy snow. It was the most pathetic 5" storm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The h5 buckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's still obviously way early to get fired up about this storm, but I'm surprised how upset people are. This run of the Euro is a HUGE improvement and big snows are literally just up 95. A slightly earlier transfer/slightly stronger storm and we are in the big snows. As it is, even Baltimore is close to double digits on this run. I'm not really understanding why people are upset. If the Euro jumps as much with the next run as it did this run, we would get pummeled. I understand the skepticism but I'm with you on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Isn't this about when things kept trending south for Sunday? Just saying. I'm VERY aware of the downside here but if the recent trends hold its movingbthe right way. Get another 150 miles south and we're ok. I say 150 so we're safe when the inevitable 50 mile north shift at the last minute happens. Of we're sitting on the edge like this 48 hours out we're in trouble. But I kind of expect some more trending in our favor before then. Hopefully enough to survive a late adjustment. The eastern trough is steadily getting deeper. Look at the z500 48hr forecast trend on TT for the GFS next week. Look at my gif of the Sunday storm up thread. Hell, given the trend, we should still worry about suppression and this wave getting squashed to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im just gonna relax and wait till 2:30 or so when Bob tells us the EPS look fantastic. Well, what you should be waiting for are the snow maps. I know those are my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I don't think people are upset. This is just how some of us have fun. I'm sure my feelings have nothing to do with what ends up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 im ups Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I don't think people are upset. This is just how some of us have fun. I'm sure my feelings have nothing to do with what ends up happening. im upset. i havent seen snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 24 minutes ago, BTRWx said: p.m. or a.m.? I thought Chill naps in the afternoon. LOL Pretty damn excited to see what the happy hour GFS brings. Feeling some boom potential is oh so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Hasn't there been a trend with systems for the trough to sharpen ever so slightly with each run for some of the storms this year? I seem to remember watching a lot of Bernie's videos and just following each model run and seeing a slight sharper trough. It wasn't huge changes, but we don't need huge changes if the current Euro/GFS is a legit solution. Just small tweaks here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 One of the reasons why the Miller-B's have a bad reputation south and west of Baltimore is that the transfer more often than not occurs a bit later than modeled. In the best case scenario, we'll be on pins and needles till the snow begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Its only Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Let's play the odds card. How many miller B's have produced and how many have left us wanting to walk the streets to find small animals to kick? I don't have exact #'s but I'm pretty sure it's at least 3/1 in the fail to acceptable ratio. Maybe 4-5/1. They all start the same way. Models have this good solutions in the med ranges with some monster solutions in the mix. We all buy into the monster. Then accept just a "good" solution. Then start talking like "as long as I get 3" I'll consider this a win". Then as we sit looking outside the window as snow spits and radar dries up before the transfer we're like "wait till the coastal takes over!!!". Then it does but the returns never press westward. Then the sinking feeling sets in. Then despair as some jackass from philly jumps in and says "Rakage! Thundersnow! 3"/hr!". I remember expecting no more than 2-3" from a Miller B in early Jan 2014 and then getting 5-7". Also there was Feb 10, 2010. Of course the fails that stand out to me are Dec 2000 and Jan 2005 (even though the latter had 6" IMBY, but I wanted 12"+ so I was disappointed and jealous of 40N). IIRC, Dec 2010 was actually a Miller A, but it seemed to have all of the traits of the very worst Miller Bs that we all dread. Someone should come up with a list of recent Miller Bs and then tally up what percentage of them are fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Let's play the odds card. How many miller B's have produced and how many have left us wanting to walk the streets to find small animals to kick? I don't have exact #'s but I'm pretty sure it's at least 3/1 in the fail to acceptable ratio. Maybe 4-5/1. They all start the same way. Models have this good solutions in the med ranges with some monster solutions in the mix. We all buy into the monster. Then accept just a "good" solution. Then start talking like "as long as I get 3" I'll consider this a win". Then as we sit looking outside the window as snow spits and radar dries up before the transfer we're like "wait till the coastal takes over!!!". Then it does but the returns never press westward. Then the sinking feeling sets in. Then despair as some jackass from philly jumps in and says "Rakage! Thundersnow! 3"/hr!". Miller bs are not our best bet. But I think we're too negative on them in general. Especially for the Maryland half of this forum. There are some classic examples of absolute screw jobs like dec 2000 where we get nothing and NYC is crushed. But that is pretty rare. First dec 2010 was a miller a. Yes I know it involved some energy coming in late to pull it back into New England but the low was a miller a that simply missed us to the east then as it amplified and phases turned due north to save philly east. But that doesn't make it a miller b so throw that nonsense out. Then there is the philly thing. There aren't many miller b storms I can think of that crushed philly and left nothing here. Dec 2000 was about 8" there so that's one. But most that give Philly 8"+ are at least respectable here. Jan 2005 wasn't some epic fail. Philly got 10". Out area got 3-8" sw to ne. How is that some epic fail??? I guess if we obsess over bostons 20" but they are in another climo universe. Most of the miller bs I can think of that really crushed philly northeast we got snow. A few we got slammed. Feb 9 2010... honestly miller b storms that cut off just in time to crush Philly and NYC and miss here are pretty rare. It's way more common for Boston and NYC southwest misses. But why are we worried about Boston. Now that said the bad it miller b storms do tend to have a nasty cutoff across our forum. They are region dividers. Those southwest of DC have way more reason to be worried then those northeast. That's just reality. Even some of the big ones like feb 78 and feb 2010 managed to rapidly diminish southwest of DC. But some of the people piling on the miller b hate train are in Maryland and it seems overly exaggerated to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The eastern trough is steadily getting deeper. Look at the z500 48hr forecast trend on TT for the GFS next week. Look at my gif of the Sunday storm up thread. Hell, given the trend, we should still worry about suppression and this wave getting squashed to hell. That was exactly what I was seeing. If that trend continues developing too far north might not be a problem we're worried about much longer. I see their concern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The eastern trough is steadily getting deeper. Look at the z500 48hr forecast trend on TT for the GFS next week. Look at my gif of the Sunday storm up thread. Hell, given the trend, we should still worry about suppression and this wave getting squashed to hell. The deepening eastern trough you mentioned...Any analogs of what that looked like in previous Miller B failures (or sucesses)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Well at least we have a parade of Highs to the north of us at 120 on the12z EURO Control lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I will buy the 12z EURO control at 144 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I will buy the 12z EURO control at 144 please Euro Control Run = DGEX = CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I will buy the 12z EURO control at 144 please ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Euro Control Run = DGEX = CRAS euro control=euro out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 EPS isn't impressive. An equal mixed bag of every possible solution. It basically told us to shut up and stop thinking so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: nice map! I wore a shirt like that in the 70's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 EPS mean and low location plots show the biggest risk it too far east in general for everyone but inside of the means is really just shotgun blasts all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS isn't impressive. An equal mixed bag of every possible solution. It basically told us to shut up and stop thinking so much. Good! Last time they were impressive for Monday, well, you know........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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