WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Congrats SE Mass LOL, this is what all the hubub is about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 At this point, I would happily track a miller B that had a nice phase with 3-6" imby along with some backbuilding before it bombed the northeast. The likelyhood of a Miller B giving me 3-6" imby with some backbuilding is close to none. It's usually all or nothing with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Congrats SE Mass More like Congrats everybody north of us. Shades of 12/30/2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, was gonna mention...it's not the best, but it's not bad either, especially sitting at this time frame. We need this thing to dig for oil now its to cheer for a southern trend....of course....when we need a southern trend....never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Euro is a tease. It would be just another gut punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yes...the Storm Which Shall Not Be Named in particular...the one in, oh, about December 2010! lol I was literally just about to post this. And the snow map looks eerily similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: There's really no comparison. 0z was NS only and a cut up through the interior of the NE. There is no transfer. So this run was a wholesale change for sure. Ah, OK...thanks. I sort of wondered that from reading the description a bit earlier, it sounded like it was a different evolution. Again...not the best as shown here, but if the phasing can occur earlier and get the primary to dig more southward, we'd be a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol I was literally just about to post this. And the snow map looks eerily similar. I had nowhere near that much snow in Dec 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 At least we're not in the bullseye 6 days out. You could count on a gut punch then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol I was literally just about to post this. And the snow map looks eerily similar. The snow map is quite similar (in terms of coverage, at least?), though there was much less than this even shows around here in Dec. 2010. I got literally a dusting, the most exciting thing was the raw cold and gusty winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, this is what all the hubub is about? As I said earlier, it's not the verbatim output. It's the evolution. Central WV to OBX/VA Beach transfers have a long and storied history here. Verbatim it's a solution loaded with heartbreak. Time to root for a Memphis to Myrtle transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Im just gonna relax and wait till 2:30 or so when Bob tells us the EPS look fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, MD Snow said: At least we're not in the bullseye 6 days out. You could count on a gut punch then. Yeah. We were closer in than this with the Sunday storm with ensemble support and the whole thing fell apart pretty quick. I'll be interested to know how the ensembles look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I had nowhere near that much snow in Dec 2010. Exactly. Remember what the models looked like 4-5 days out? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Im just gonna relax and wait till 2:30 or so when Bob tells us the EPS look fantastic. p.m. or a.m.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. Remember what the models looked like 4-5 days out? lol I remember what they looked like even a day before (at least the GFS, it sucked us back in on Christmas Eve). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Timing messing with my flight into BDL and drive to Worcester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 It's still obviously way early to get fired up about this storm, but I'm surprised how upset people are. This run of the Euro is a HUGE improvement and big snows are literally just up 95. A slightly earlier transfer/slightly stronger storm and we are in the big snows. As it is, even Baltimore is close to double digits on this run. I'm not really understanding why people are upset. If the Euro jumps as much with the next run as it did this run, we would get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GEFS gives lows for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: It's still obviously way early to get fired up about this storm, but I'm surprised how upset people are. This run of the Euro is a HUGE improvement and big snows are literally just up 95. A slightly earlier transfer/slightly stronger storm and we are in the big snows. As it is, even Baltimore is close to double digits on this run. I'm not really understanding why people are upset. If the Euro jumps as much with the next run as it did this run, we would get pummeled. These storms often don't work out for us. It's asking a lot for the transfer to happen 100 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's still obviously way early to get fired up about this storm, but I'm surprised how upset people are. This run of the Euro is a HUGE improvement and big snows are literally just up 95. A slightly earlier transfer/slightly stronger storm and we are in the big snows. As it is, even Baltimore is close to double digits on this run. I'm not really understanding why people are upset. If the Euro jumps as much with the next run as it did this run, we would get pummeled. I think it just brings back memories of many infamous screwjobs from years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: It's still obviously way early to get fired up about this storm, but I'm surprised how upset people are. This run of the Euro is a HUGE improvement and big snows are literally just up 95. A slightly earlier transfer/slightly stronger storm and we are in the big snows. As it is, even Baltimore is close to double digits on this run. I'm not really understanding why people are upset. If the Euro jumps as much with the next run as it did this run, we would get pummeled. Why... this winter has screwed us every way possible!!! If you only get a dusting and 100 east gets a foot!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: It's still obviously way early to get fired up about this storm, but I'm surprised how upset people are. This run of the Euro is a HUGE improvement and big snows are literally just up 95. A slightly earlier transfer/slightly stronger storm and we are in the big snows. As it is, even Baltimore is close to double digits on this run. I'm not really understanding why people are upset. If the Euro jumps as much with the next run as it did this run, we would get pummeled. You're right. The EURO is still evolving into the Miller B setup. Hopefully it transfers down south of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: The snow map is quite similar (in terms of coverage, at least?), though there was much less than this even shows around here in Dec. 2010. I got literally a dusting, the most exciting thing was the raw cold and gusty winds! Yeah if you trim off the few inches on the SW part, the real deal snow is in the same places. There was almost a foot of snow not too far east of me in DE, and up to 2 feet in NJ. But enough with the bad vibes. Lets hope this trends the other way from that debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's still obviously way early to get fired up about this storm, but I'm surprised how upset people are. This run of the Euro is a HUGE improvement and big snows are literally just up 95. A slightly earlier transfer/slightly stronger storm and we are in the big snows. As it is, even Baltimore is close to double digits on this run. I'm not really understanding why people are upset. If the Euro jumps as much with the next run as it did this run, we would get pummeled. I don't think it's so much that people are upset at how things look right now, just wary. The type of setup shown is very tricky for this area, and most often we get screwed by it. That said, you are correct that it's a big change and improvement over what the Euro was showing before from what I've read in here (haven't seen much of the actual maps from last night). And the potential sure is there for this event...if the northern stream can dig more and we can get phasing a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Let's play the odds card. How many miller B's have produced and how many have left us wanting to walk the streets to find small animals to kick? I don't have exact #'s but I'm pretty sure it's at least 3/1 in the fail to acceptable ratio. Maybe 4-5/1. They all start the same way. Models have this good solutions in the med ranges with some monster solutions in the mix. We all buy into the monster. Then accept just a "good" solution. Then start talking like "as long as I get 3" I'll consider this a win". Then as we sit looking outside the window as snow spits and radar dries up before the transfer we're like "wait till the coastal takes over!!!". Then it does but the returns never press westward. Then the sinking feeling sets in. Then despair as some jackass from philly jumps in and says "Rakage! Thundersnow! 3"/hr!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Maybe I'm a glass half full guy, but the Euro just did a complete 180 with its evolution vs 0z (trending way better in that department). Yes, its current depiction is generally a heartbreak for us as we need a more southern transfer but it was a nice step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah if you trim off the few inches on the SW part, the real deal snow is in the same places. There was almost a foot of snow not too far east of me in DE, and up to 2 feet in NJ. But enough with the bad vibes. Lets hope this trends the other way from that debacle. Amen to that! Yeah, I was up in Philly visiting my parents for Christmas that year, and came home a bit early, knowing they'd get hit (didn't care to drive in that!). They got about a foot in Philly I recall, and northeast MD got maybe a couple inches I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The reality is, with both the GFS and the Euro, the western ridge has trended stronger and stronger with each passing run. Trof digging more too. Looks great at h5 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Let's play the odds card. How many miller B's have produced and how many have left us wanting to walk the streets to find small animals to kick? I don't have exact #'s but I'm pretty sure it's at least 3/1 in the fail to acceptable ratio. Maybe 4-5/1 That's a lot of hurt puppies, kittens, and bunnies there! Only good one I recall recently was of course Feb. 10, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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