Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pretty hard to put faith in ensembles, especially snow maps. As someone pointed out earlier, they looked great for Sunday just a few days ago. That's very true. But most are just commenting on what we see that's available right now in this moment; this actually showed up the other day as well (and maybe before?). We can't see what the ensembles will look like in a couple or so days...until a couple or so days from now! And as of this moment, it's a pretty good look even beyond what the snow maps indicate (which as you imply are perhaps a bit questionable to rely on totally). Others have mentioned the caveats and potential problems that could occur, but also that the Tuesday time frame is perhaps a better setup than what we were originally hoping for this weekend. I'll run with that for now. Of course, this may well all go the way of the formerly enticing Sunday event (whether squashed to nothing or some other screw job to our north), but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Whoah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Day 6 850 RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Finally shows up on the Euro....in spirit anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Day 6 850 RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest temps at 850 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't let me down, Robert E. Chill. His middle initial is "E"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 At least it's a WV to OBX transfer. That's not the worst but further south with the NS is obviously better. Sure is trending south run over run. No doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Whoah! Saw that happening earlier in the run. The Sunday "storm" was even more suppressed than last run and in turn the Tuesday storm had more energy to work with. Hopefully, it's a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Whoah! I moved my Sunday to Tuesday phase comment to banter at the last minute. Heck yea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: At least it's a WV to OBX transfer. That's not the worst but further south with the NS is obviously better. Sure is trending south run over run. No doubt about that. Yeah, was gonna mention...it's not the best, but it's not bad either, especially sitting at this time frame. We need this thing to dig for oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: At least it's a WV to OBX transfer. That's not the worst but further south with the NS is obviously better. Sure is trending south run over run. No doubt about that. That is the problem we have hard all year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 DIGGGG DIGGGGGG vort cut off and go BOOOOOOM!! Please all I want is one monster storm stop teasing US weather GODS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: His middle initial is "E"? Yes. Stands for Ethel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Day 6 850 moisture convergence suggests best lift just on the NE side of DC....caution, colors are funky on the map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=mconv&in=1&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that one is the great mystery to me. All the time we have been told that "sampling" is over rated and that data is good over the Pacific, so I am at a loss as to why the models "see" them as strong and then reality is that they are weak as water. Just a guess but other then sampling a tendency to hold vorts together on their track across the pacific could be part of it. Or an overall bias of over estimating those features. Or most likely just chaos playing its role the further out in time you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Eh, not too good for the DC folks and burbs. Pretty classic NE MD and northward miller B storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Day 6 850 moisture convergence suggests best lidt just on the NE side of DC....caution, colors are funky on the map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1024x768&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=mconv&in=1&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest OT: Did they make this site when Atari first came out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 If DT ain't woofing on facebook, it must not be a good enough Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yes. Stands for Ethel I think you mean Edsel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least it's a WV to OBX transfer. That's not the worst but further south with the NS is obviously better. Sure is trending south run over run. No doubt about that. Yes...not "great" yet, but much better. Also certainly better than those several GEFS members that had the primary low in Ohio (I know, different model here, but anyhow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Eh, not too good for the DC folks and burbs. Pretty classic NE MD and northward miller B storm. Considering the trends lately, I disagree. That thing is so close to phasing where we need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Eh, not too good for the DC folks and burbs. Pretty classic NE MD and northward miller B storm. It still shows 2-3" for DC... we would take that... but we just need it the SLP to be a bit further south... with this winter... may be a good bet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 It's a SE Mass nuke job. Basically a full on blizzard up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Psychologically, I know it's hard to root for, but I'd rather not see the perfect storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: It still shows 2-3" for DC... we would take that... but we just need it the SLP to be a bit further south... with this winter... may be a good bet lol Eh, what the model shows verbatim can't override my memory. I know exactly how that scenario plays out in my yard. And it's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's a SE Mass nuke job. Basically a full on blizzard up there. Good to know. Worried about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eh, not too good for the DC folks and burbs. Pretty classic NE MD and northward miller B storm. How did the 00Z look on this (can't recall, didn't really see it earlier), i.e., is this still actually an improvement? Get that primary a bit more south of WV, and we'd fare a lot better I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Congrats SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Eh, what the model shows verbatim can't override my memory. I know exactly how that scenario plays out in my yard. And it's not good. Yes...the Storm Which Shall Not Be Named in particular...the one in, oh, about December 2010! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: How did the 00Z look on this (can't recall, didn't really see it earlier), i.e., is this still actually an improvement? Get that primary a bit more south of WV, and we'd fare a lot better I'd think. There's really no comparison. 0z was NS only and a cut up through the interior of the NE. There is no transfer. So this run was a wholesale change for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.