March med-long range disco thread 2

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

For those who like e9 -- its a Wednesday into Thursday storm

Keep pushing them back...lol

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Keep pushing them back...lol

Others like e11 start late Monday night into Tuesday morning... so there are some timing differences... but the 12z GEFS is heavy heavy favoring next week

[Thanatos_I_Am]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Others like e11 start late Monday night into Tuesday morning... so there are some timing differences... but the 12z GEFS is heavy heavy favoring next week

It's hard not to skeptical though. Three days ego the GEFS was sitting pretty with the Sunday threat.

[MD Snow]

A couple amateur  observations, thoughts and questions that I've had over the last couple days: 

1. For anyone thinking we're out of the game on any of these from Sunday-Wednesday, just look at the GGEM. Compare 12z hr 102 to 0z hr 90. Precip (though light) goes from va/nc border to dc.. in one run. One run and we jump 150 miles in the precip shield for the storm on Sunday that everyone has written off. I don't think it's going to amount to anything at all but I think this shows the volatility of the pattern we're in. 

2. The point has already been made but I'll make it again. It is March. It is going be hard to get it to snow in MD period. For areas east of 95 it will be even more difficult as shown on a number of the ensemble members. I think the only way we get accumulations is to either have a consolidated slug of moisture and intense vort moving west to east or a total bomb Miller B/A. If we are in it but close to being fringed don't get your hopes up. It's not happening. Story of the MA and story of our winter. 

3. I think there are still a number of options on the table for Sunday - Wednesday. I think we could still see the Sunday system gain in intensity and maybe be a DC south kind of deal. If that happens I think it greatly changes the impact on Tuesday. I think we need to get through the next 48hrs before Sunday is  even set in stone much less Tuesday. 

Questions:  

1. To get a miller a wouldn't we want the Sunday storm to get super squashed so it can get picked up by the northern branch as it moves through? 

2. Is it safe to say that tossing a coin is more effective at forecasting if areas south of the mason dixon line don't get any snow over the next week considering what the ensembles have been showing the last 3-4 days?

Thanks!   

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

For those who like e9 -- its a Wednesday evening into Thursday storm... and its a pounding of awesome proportions

E9 & E11 are good...E19 is kinda okay, but once again the rest are pretty low and confine snow to the climo spots.  

[Bob Chill]

Not a huge fan of this panel. It has a distinct skipdoolamadoo MA poo poo look

 

But then there's this so

 

 

I'm not going to worry about what any op says about anything for probably 3 more days. These things are tenuous. We've been here and done this too many times. 

 

The problem with the first image is the NS low cluster is just too far north. I can envision exactly how it would look with radar. Light overunning into a CAD setup that just fizzles. As the coastal gets going it robs the NS low (as it should) but the precip shield down south is tight and nothing is getting thrown back this far west. As it gains latitude a CCB will set up but only after the NS low is completely dead. So even with the better looking second panel, it doesn't really mean a wound up coastal yet. It's pretty early in the transfer process. 

I don't think anyone from Philly north feels bad right now though. It's a classic NE pummeler setup. 

 

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

E9 & E11 are good...E19 is kinda okay, but once again the rest are pretty low and confine snow to the climo spots.  

Sigh... when a majority show 6"+...

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

E9 & E11 are good...E19 is kinda okay, but once again the rest are pretty low and confine snow to the climo spots.  

Not a surprise that better "climo spots" will tend to show more especially this time of year.  But regardless of that, for the general metro DC-Balt area, I count nearly a dozen members that get us well into or right near the 6"+ "purple" colors.  That's not anything to scoff at and hardly "the rest are pretty low" (outside the 3 you list)...though admittedly many show quite a gradient.

(ETA:  Ninja'd by Yoda there...)

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Amped said:

I usually look for the 546DM and 552DM to split and form a troff somewhere in the midwest as a rule of thumb but not an absolute law.    528 DM lows almost never dig far enough south to slingshot moisture back into the MA.  This is why I'm rooting for a stronger southern stream.

A stronger southern stream is always better. And your rule is good just saying if there is ever a time to get it done despite those faults march is when it happens. That's all. 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

e9 and I will not complain the rest of the winter

All 2 weeks?  You sure you can make it?  Lol

[midatlanticweather]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a huge fan of this panel. It has a distinct skipdoolamadoo MA poo poo lootup. 

 

3

5

LOL!!!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a huge fan of this panel. It has a distinct skipdoolamadoo MA poo poo look

 

But then there's this so

 

 

I'm not going to worry about what any op says about anything for probably 3 more days. These things are tenuous. We've been here and done this too many times. 

 

The problem with the first image is the NS low cluster is just too far north. I can envision exactly how it would look with radar. Light overunning into a CAD setup that just fizzles. As the coastal gets going it robs the NS low (as it should) but the precip shield down south is tight and nothing is getting thrown back this far west. As it gains latitude a CCB will set up but only after the NS low is completely dead. So even with the better looking second panel, it doesn't really mean a wound up coastal yet. It's pretty early in the transfer process. 

I don't think anyone from Philly north feels bad right now though. It's a classic NE pummeler setup. 

 

 

Good description of the main concern here at this point.  If only those members in Ohio would be down around, oh, say TN/KY, we'd all feel a lot better.

And I'm sure Philly and north wouldn't mind this look at all!

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

LOL!!!!

I try not to be too technical with my analysis but sometimes I can't help it. Hopefully the EPS will show the highly techincal bingbangboomeroo MA crushermadoo. That means this in layman's terms:

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I try not to be too technical with my analysis but sometimes I can't help it. Hopefully the EPS will show the highly techincal bingbangboomeroo MA crushermadoo. That means this in layman's terms:

4

If we get to Thread time.. call it that! 

bingbangboomeroo MA crushermadoo

[eurojosh]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

If we get to Thread time.. call it that! 

bingbangboomeroo MA crushermadoo

Is it still true that the Euro is "better" with southern stream systems?

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a huge fan of this panel. It has a distinct skipdoolamadoo MA poo poo look

 

But then there's this so

 

 

I'm not going to worry about what any op says about anything for probably 3 more days. These things are tenuous. We've been here and done this too many times. 

 

The problem with the first image is the NS low cluster is just too far north. I can envision exactly how it would look with radar. Light overunning into a CAD setup that just fizzles. As the coastal gets going it robs the NS low (as it should) but the precip shield down south is tight and nothing is getting thrown back this far west. As it gains latitude a CCB will set up but only after the NS low is completely dead. So even with the better looking second panel, it doesn't really mean a wound up coastal yet. It's pretty early in the transfer process. 

I don't think anyone from Philly north feels bad right now though. It's a classic NE pummeler setup. 

 

That's what I was saying about the Op. Recipe for potential disaster. But the GEFS looks better, IMO. That mean looks biased by two members with really strong Midwest lows in OH. Take those away and it's probably a better look even. I like that even the mean closes off a low near Hatteras by that second panel.

Almost every storm this winter, s/w's look weaker the closer we get to go time. Let's see if we can get a strong wave to keep showing up for the next day or two.

 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a huge fan of this panel. It has a distinct skipdoolamadoo MA poo poo look

 

But then there's this so

 

 

I'm not going to worry about what any op says about anything for probably 3 more days. These things are tenuous. We've been here and done this too many times. 

 

The problem with the first image is the NS low cluster is just too far north. I can envision exactly how it would look with radar. Light overunning into a CAD setup that just fizzles. As the coastal gets going it robs the NS low (as it should) but the precip shield down south is tight and nothing is getting thrown back this far west. As it gains latitude a CCB will set up but only after the NS low is completely dead. So even with the better looking second panel, it doesn't really mean a wound up coastal yet. It's pretty early in the transfer process. 

I don't think anyone from Philly north feels bad right now though. It's a classic NE pummeler setup. 

 

Your 100% right in what the biggest risk here is. But the h5 look is pretty good to me and is digging pretty far west and that's good. The southern energy seems to take over pretty fast on most of the members. Time of year would also argue for a faster cut off and bombing solution. We have some things going for us but your skepticism is justified. There is always a "how it goes wrong" option and you nailed it. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Pretty hard to put faith in ensembles, especially snow maps.  As someone pointed out earlier, they looked great for Sunday just a few days ago.

[Bob Chill]

Really like the trailing vort @ hr 102 on the euro. Much more energy riding down the ridge. Regardless of the solution down the line, seeing a vort trend STRONGER @ d4ish is sorta new. lol

[yoda]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Really like the trailing vort @ hr 102 on the euro. Much more energy riding down the ridge. Regardless of the solutions, seeing vort trend STRONGER @ d4ish is sorta new. lol

I was about to post the same... looks good at 108

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Pretty hard to put faith in ensembles, especially snow maps.  As someone pointed out earlier, they looked great for Sunday just a few days ago.

And about 5 or 6 other times this year we've had a 4" mean.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Pretty hard to put faith in ensembles, especially snow maps.  As someone pointed out earlier, they looked great for Sunday just a few days ago.

It's this "day 5 barrier" all winter where the NWP shows strong vorts up til then and then starts clueing in that they're all really weak strung out hot messes. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Really like the trailing vort @ hr 102 on the euro. Much more energy riding down the ridge. Regardless of the solutions, seeing vort trend STRONGER @ d4ish is sorta new. lol

Don't let me down, Robert E. Chill.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Pretty hard to put faith in ensembles, especially snow maps.  As someone pointed out earlier, they looked great for Sunday just a few days ago.

It was a mirage. It used to be around day 2-3 now it's more like day 5-7 but as guidance starts to get a better handle on a system that is going through a rapid trend towards the final solution it's dangerous. We were just a pit stop on the way to the final destination. We looked good for one day as the system trended south across our area. 

Now we are in that same period of rapid adjustment with Tuesday so we have to be careful but the difference is the trends are ebbing and flowing towards a more amplified system this time and with a pretty good trough axis that's pretty good for us. Maybe it trends too amped or develops too late but this is a better h5 look then the Sunday wave ever was. Doesn't mean we don't fail though. 

[mitchnick]

that looks good for a day 5 850 map and slp

[tstate21]

12z Euro at 120 looks much better than yesterday's 12z run. Deeper trough and northern stream vort digging more as well. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, tstate21 said:

12z Euro at 120 looks much better than yesterday's 12z run. Deeper trough and northern stream vort digging more as well. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It's this "day 5 barrier" all winter where the NWP shows strong vorts up til then and then starts clueing in that they're all really weak strung out hot messes. 

And that one is the great mystery to me.

All the time we have been told that "sampling" is over rated and that data is good over the Pacific, so I am at a loss as to why the models "see" them as strong and then reality is that they are weak as water.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Don't let me down, Robert E. Chill.

I liked everything I saw through hr96. Euro is really good in general through d4. It's a great trend towards a phase and/or amplification without being on the outside looking in. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'll bet the euro isn't much of a system for Sunday.