stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I'd say The hole is right over your house. That's definitely happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I'd say Would almost double my total. la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: The hole is right over your house. That's definitely happening. with the way this winter has gone, nothing would surprise me anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GGEM analysis. Its way more more amplified with the front runner Sunday, gets decent snows across NC and Southern VA now, and so it takes the southern stream energy off the coast with it. That leaves less to get going and so it struggles to develop the Tuesday storm. That is the bad The good, it still manages to pop something along the mid atlantic coast, actually misses us to the south for the most part, and goes out, but it obviously still sees the potential and even without any energy left behind it still manages to try to pop another low. The guidance is going to struggle to see "beyond" Sunday and I have seen this play out before, once they figure out exactly what to do with the front runner they will suddenly figure out whats going on behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I'd say Now that's the winter I've grown to hate. Lock this up. Never a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I am no fan of Miller B storms at all. They tend to miss us to the north and with it being March that is a real possibility. I'may hoping the Sunday storm starts drifting northward. I think in the end it's our best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: UK looks good to me...maybe better than last night? I believe so... it looks like the best we have seen for the possible Tuesday system from any OP model... I think the h5 depiction on that map would show a phase shortly after with a deepening SLP as it goes up the coast after 144, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: UK looks good to me...maybe better than last night? It depends what happens right after that. Its coming together but it needs to phase and pop a low pretty quick from that point. Also the h5 energy seems to be coming down in two peices, I dont like that as much. But it could work if that second stronger piece pulls everything back in and really bombs it out as it comes up. The UKMET has the setup there so at this range thats all that matters. The GGEM and GFS have it too. If you just look at H5 the potential is clearly there. Its still 144 hours out, and I know after losing Sunday and the totally crap year we want to make this closer and happen NOW but its still way too far out to be delving into details like this. Having the H5 look there is what I want the most at this point. I won't lie though I don't want to see the ensembles back off and seeing a euro op move in the right direction would be nice. I don't need a big hit just for it to see what the others are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 One thing GFS is sure of: spring isn't coming back anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GGEM analysis. Its way more more amplified with the front runner Sunday, gets decent snows across NC and Southern VA now, and so it takes the southern stream energy off the coast with it. That leaves less to get going and so it struggles to develop the Tuesday storm. That is the bad The good, it still manages to pop something along the mid atlantic coast, actually misses us to the south for the most part, and goes out, but it obviously still sees the potential and even without any energy left behind it still manages to try to pop another low. The guidance is going to struggle to see "beyond" Sunday and I have seen this play out before, once they figure out exactly what to do with the front runner they will suddenly figure out whats going on behind it. Stupid CMC lol. It has been leading the way with crushing the first sw into oblivion, and now it does what I thought could happen to make the Sunday storm work- it involves the southern stream energy, amps up a bit and gains some latitude. But its not going to get up here(not likely anyway), and you are right, that screws things up somewhat for the now "main event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: One thing GFS is sure of: spring isn't coming back anytime soon. For good reason we are all focused on the next 10 days, but both the GEFS and EPS are really hitting another cold blast and possible storm threat around day 15. It is really a shame this pattern is finally setting in mid March. If we got this kind of same look in our prime climo we would probably end up pretty good, this late we may end up with a muted result or a total fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That whole thing on the GFS looks whacky to me. Of course, I don't expect to see the final solution for Tuesday 144 hours in advance. As for the weekend, I still say it will be well north of where it's modeled. If there is actually any storm, that is. How that affects Tuesday, I'm sure I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Looking at the GEFS snowfall ensemble mean (it comes out faster than the individual ensembles) shows a def increase starting at 138 going to 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That whole thing on the GFS looks whacky to me. Of course, I don't expect to see the final solution for Tuesday 144 hours in advance. As for the weekend, I still say it will be well north of where it's modeled. If there is actually any storm, that is. How that affects Tuesday, I'm sure I don't know. Levi Cowan was stating on Twitter that some of the short waves are SE of Japan at this time regarding the Sunday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: Levi Cowan was stating on Twitter that some of the short waves are SE of Japan at this time regarding the Sunday system. Seriously? Wow. Those things must be screaming across the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 For a miller a we need a much deeper further west southern stream. 1015 100 miles off the SC coast isn't going to cut it. Needs to be more like 1005 MB over Charlestown. That 528dm northern stream mauler isn't going to make for a decent mid atlantic Miller B, it's got dryslot written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Stupid CMC lol. It has been leading the way with crushing the first sw into oblivion, and now it does what I thought could happen to make the Sunday storm work- it involves the southern stream energy, amps up a bit and gains some latitude. But its not going to get up here(not likely anyway), and you are right, that screws things up somewhat for the now "main event". Yea, go back to my post the other day about being frustrated by "complicated" this is not complicated. No simple wave or overrunning, we are talking intricate balances of energy and phasing and all that jazz and thats hard to figure out at long leads. This year even the simple stuff is difficult because the models have been awful and the fast flow is moving features around every run but at least the idea of what the storm will look like is there. With this even the way it will develop is a crap shoot. But again, if we just look at the H5 loop Tuesday sticks out like a sore thumb as where the best potential is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Seriously? Wow. Those things must be screaming across the Pacific. Yup, The overall tone on social media from those who are really good mets seems to be positive. Just a lot to digest for the models , and the block is a big player along with the trends in the PNA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: For a miller a we need a much deeper further west southern stream. 1015 100 miles off the SC coast isn't going to cut it. Needs to be more like 1005 MB over Charlestown. That 528dm northern stream mauler isn't going to make for a decent mid atlantic Miller B, it's got dryslot written all over it. normally yes, especially in winter, but look at some of our March storms and with the shorter wavelengths and ability for things to cut off and amplify on a dime that is not necessarily true. I know march 58 has an inland reflection and something way off NC and they came together and bombed due north then cut off. That kind of crap happens this time of year. Your point is valid during mid winter though or without a crazy H5 dig like were seeing with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Hmmmm... I like through 198... has to be some monster individual runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Have to look at the individual members but the mean on the GEFS screams hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Through 198 there are 8 hits of 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: normally yes, especially in winter, but look at some of our March storms and with the shorter wavelengths and ability for things to cut off and amplify on a dime that is not necessarily true. I know march 58 has an inland reflection and something way off NC and they came together and bombed due north then cut off. That kind of crap happens this time of year. Your point is valid during mid winter though or without a crazy H5 dig like were seeing with this. Did you hear about the off the charts - 300 WPO, crazy HM talking about it , together with the - NAO combo these levels only seen 5 times since 1948 !!! ( As per HM ) I love his stats , awesome . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmmm... I like through 198... has to be some monster individual runs Nice, thanks Yoda! Can't wait to look through the individual members as that definitely continues a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Mmmm... tasty... I went out to 216 because a few individual members have accumulating snow until Day 9... but majority are through Day 7... 7 or 8 members have DC proper in 10"+... lets take e11 or e9 and all it a winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: normally yes, especially in winter, but look at some of our March storms and with the shorter wavelengths and ability for things to cut off and amplify on a dime that is not necessarily true. I know march 58 has an inland reflection and something way off NC and they came together and bombed due north then cut off. That kind of crap happens this time of year. Your point is valid during mid winter though or without a crazy H5 dig like were seeing with this. I usually look for the 546DM and 552DM to split and form a troff somewhere in the midwest as a rule of thumb but not an absolute law. 528 DM lows almost never dig far enough south to slingshot moisture back into the MA. This is why I'm rooting for a stronger southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 WRT -300 for WPO: From weatheradvance.com "The negative phases of both of these oscillations feature a stronger, more extensive than normal Pacific Jet with coincident reduction in the meridional height gradient in the North Pacific & downstream cyclonic circulation anomalies over eastern North America that thereby tend to favor significant arctic air intrusions east of the Rockies, hence increasing the probability for cold & snow in the Eastern-Central US & vis versa. Some recent research I’m currently undertaking suggests that while wintry weather even in the southern US is more common in the negative phase of the EPO & WPO, the potential for Miller B/Overruning/CAD (Cold Air Damming) events increases rather dramatically when the EPO & WPO are negative, ..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 e9 and I will not complain the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 e9 and I'll forgive and not complain about this entire winter and the majority of next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 For those who like e9 -- its a Wednesday evening into Thursday storm... and its a pounding of awesome proportions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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