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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I didn't think anyone really looked at the RE-GEX very seriously, but that 06Z snow chart was fun to look at all the same!

Next, someone will have to post the CRAS.

Saving this post for when it gets close enough that I can post the 48-hr CRAS plot.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

I don't understand

I didn't get it first either...but in looking at the radar simulation of rain/frozen (on TT), the "shape" sort of does look like a duck in the midwest, then a T-Rex as it moves east.  Kinda stretching it a bit though.  Maybe it's like a meteorological version of a Rorschach test!

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I didn't get it first either...but in looking at the radar simulation of rain/frozen (on TT), the "shape" sort of does look like a duck in the midwest, then a T-Rex as it moves east.  Kinda stretching it a bit though.  Maybe it's like a meteorological version of a Rorschach test!

;)

or more like, what you see when looking at abstract art.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

It has probably been mentioned and I've missed it in the flurry of pages, but the 06z GFS and 00z GGEM look nothing alike.  The GGEM digs the northern stream really deep and has an associated 850 low riding up from the Gulf region.  The GFS has none of that, and simply tracks an 850 low W to E. 

One thing I like about this threat though is for a chance a "compromise" solution between the majority camps here (GFS/GGEM/JMA/UKMET/EPS) would work out very well for us.  In the past this winter we have had one outlier camp and we needed it to win completely to get snow and when the inevitable compromise happened that left us close but no cigar.  The one thing I would have on my wish list today would be to see Dr No get on board.  The op euro being insistent that this is less amplified and basically a northern stream system going to our north bothers me a little.  If the op euro gets on board I would feel a lot more comfortable. 

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40 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol @ folks from NC posting the DGEX in our thread. 

Well, the storm in question could effect both of our regions.  I often read what's going on in your forums to get more analysis.  Bob Chill posts in the SE forum quite often.  I wasn't trolling.  The DGEX is often good for fantasy snow and no one had mentioned it here yet.  Just spreading the good word.  I wasn't trying to be a troll.  Good luck everyone!

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Honestly, when he said we got hit with two storms and it was epic, I was expecting a lot more than dark purple on that map. Not that it matters at all being a 192 hr forecast AND the DGEX.

Some of you have unrealistic expectations for March.  If we actually got 18+" from two storms in Mid March that is historic and a 1 in 30 year type event. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing I like about this threat though is for a chance a "compromise" solution between the majority camps here (GFS/GGEM/JMA/UKMET/EPS) would work out very well for us.  In the past this winter we have had one outlier camp and we needed it to win completely to get snow and when the inevitable compromise happened that left us close but no cigar.  The one thing I would have on my wish list today would be to see Dr No get on board.  The op euro being insistent that this is less amplified and basically a northern stream system going to our north bothers me a little.  If the op euro gets on board I would feel a lot more comfortable. 

Good points.  Yes, we may be in a better spot with some kind of compromise, as you call it, between the majority of the models.  Maybe an indication that there's more of a consensus rather than totally chasing a unicorn.  At this point, we're not rooting for one or two solutions that look good (the outlier camp that you mention).  That said, I agree it would be nice for the Euro to come on board more...though having the EPS show the Tuesday possibility is encouraging.  Thought I saw someone earlier say that the 00Z Euro was a miss, but perhaps "closer" at least compared to yesterday?

I am a bit concerned about the Miller-B redevelopment type look on this and how that could screw us, but it's enough out in time that worrying about such details might not be worth it (yet).

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some of you have unrealistic expectations for March.  If we actually got 18+" from two storms in Mid March that is historic and a 1 in 30 year type event. 

I guess. When someone says epic two storms, I think 3 feet of snow. That map was a lot of 12-18. But yeah, for March, 18 inches of snow even from multiple systems is very significant.

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5 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Well, the storm in question could effect both of our regions.  I often read what's going on in your forums to get more analysis.  Bob Chill posts in the SE forum quite often.  I wasn't trolling.  The DGEX is often good for fantasy snow and no one had mentioned it here yet.  Just spreading the good word.  I wasn't trying to be a troll.  Good luck everyone!

OK

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4 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Well, the storm in question could effect both of our regions.  I often read what's going on in your forums to get more analysis.  Bob Chill posts in the SE forum quite often.  I wasn't trolling.  The DGEX is often good for fantasy snow and no one had mentioned it here yet.  Just spreading the good word.  I wasn't trying to be a troll.  Good luck everyone!

No, didn't think you were trolling...and there are some really good people in here who give great analysis.  I will say, as much as it may be laughed at, that DGEX map was fun to look at all the same!

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some of you have unrealistic expectations for March.  If we actually got 18+" from two storms in Mid March that is historic and a 1 in 30 year type event. 

Indeed.  I got around 16" in March 2014 from three events, and for March that was very epic (even historic) for around here.  Nobody should be looking for an 18" storm or some kind of 1993 redux or even a repeat of 2014...at least not seriously.

A solid 6-10" event would obviously be a soothing balm on an awful winter.  Heck, just meeting warning criteria would do it this year!

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some of you have unrealistic expectations for March.  If we actually got 18+" from two storms in Mid March that is historic and a 1 in 30 year type event. 

I'm hoping for more than 4" would double my total :lol: 

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