showmethesnow Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It was nice of the models to provide us another chance to have our hearts broken so soon after wrecking the Sunday storm. Yeah. Sort of feels like a been there, done that moment. Doesn't it. I guess we never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah. Sort of feels like a been there, done that moment. Doesn't it. I guess we never learn. Yea I'm pig headed sometimes. But if there is anyway possible to make it snow through sheer force of will then we're gonna make this happen. The snow gods will reward our devotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Beat me to it. Yup...much improved for us vs 0z, which was getting there. Just 75 miles more diggy and it's a beautiful end to this miserable winter. Yup... I love this run and I'll take it and run with it, but it looks to me like the redevelopment barely happens in time for us. Any slight delay and it's a 40N storm. So I'd like to see more room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The para, the op and the cmc all have big qpf numbers for tuesday. The para is a little silly. all three are borderline temps. But hey... I will take... I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yup... I love this run and I'll take it and run with it, but it looks to me like the redevelopment barely happens in time for us. Any slight delay and it's a 40N storm. So I'd like to see more room for error. Hopefully this evolves away from the miller B look on the GFS and Euro. So much suck potential with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Hopefully this evolves away from the miller B look on the GFS and Euro. So much suck potential with that. Yeah, we definitely don't want that. Compared to the 0z run, this was a big step in the right direction. Let's hope this one digs enough to bury us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Hopefully this evolves away from the miller B look on the GFS and Euro. So much suck potential with that. I dont like the thoughts of a storm pretty much developing right on us. I get this has potential, but as you said that scenario has a lot of bust potential. Id rather see a nice Miller A take over but Im not sure thats how it can play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 So much for having Weatherbell through today. Looks like they have canceled my account a day early. Between them shutting it down 7 days ago when I first stopped the monthly auto renewal and now a day early I am a little irked. Like their Euro output and some other features but their model homepage setup outright sucks. And with me quite often times having major issues earlier in the morning while they are doing maintenance I really don't know if it is worth the aggravation to deal with them next year to just have the better Euro output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Why is everyone so paranoid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: Yeah, we definitely don't want that. Compared to the 0z run, this was definitely a step in the right direction. 6z GFS gets it done with the primary low weakening over WV and the coastal developing right over VA beach. Thats tight. Like to see the coastal get going near the outer banks and (for my location) a tad further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Good stuff to kickstart the day off I'm seeing. Let's hope the positive trends continue throughout. I better not see Lucy and her football walking down the street... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Why is everyone so paranoid? Who is paranoid? Simply discussing all the potential.... ways the region can get screwed yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: But warm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030718&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=94 At least it would help with the unusually dry conditions around these parts...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I'm hugging the 06z GFS for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Then you want the Ukie then.... hour 144 looks like Psu said....ready blow up in 6 to 12 hours. Yes that is a nice look, as long as the low level temps aren't torchy. The timing of this event is interesting. The ridge over GL has completely(and rapidly) broken down, but at least there are still some lower heights around the Canadian maritmes leading in, and there is a pretty nice PNA ridge. Kind of looks like an Archambault deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I dont like the thoughts of a storm pretty much developing right on us. I get this has potential, but as you said that scenario has a lot of bust potential. Id rather see a nice Miller A take over but Im not sure thats how it can play out Your right of course but how often do we get a juiced up miller a out of the gulf bombing up the coast with cold in place? Once every 3/4 years? Sometimes we just have to get one of these less then perfect storms to work. They do work out sometimes or else we would average like 5" a year from that 1 dump every 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm hugging the 06z GFS for Tuesday. I'm a bit skeptical of those ratios, but wow if that happens. Is that Westminster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm hugging the 06z GFS for Tuesday. Just curious where I could find those. I'm looking for KFDK. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: I'm a bit skeptical of those ratios, but wow if that happens. Is that Westminster? If anything, pay attention to the QPF (1.51) even 10:1 that's still 15" Yes. Closest Cobb output for me. KMTN (Martin State) would be closer to you, but because they are on the water it wouldn't quite fit for your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I dont like the thoughts of a storm pretty much developing right on us. I get this has potential, but as you said that scenario has a lot of bust potential. Id rather see a nice Miller A take over but Im not sure thats how it can play out Does anyone know when we last had a true Miller A, out of the gulf, ride the coast type of storm? It seems to me like it's been awhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, EB89 said: Just curious where I could find those. I'm looking for KFDK. Thanks. KFDK doesn't have a location in Cobb, so you'd have to go to HGR http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=hgr hope that helps! PS. The hours are screwy, if you want to see 06z you have to click the drop down for 00z/12z for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Aside from the storm, the cold afterwards is very impressive on the GFS, and some of us wouldn't get above freezing until Saturday if it's to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That CMC cut-off is lol (this is through Tuesday, so includes anything falling Friday for northern folks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Who is paranoid? Simply discussing all the potential.... ways the region can get screwed yet again X10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: That CMC cut-off is lol (this is through Tuesday, so includes anything falling Friday for northern folks) That montygomery county cutoff can happen. IIRC, Feb '14 "blizzard" yielded 24" in Damascus, but 5" in Takoma Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: That CMC cut-off is lol (this is through Tuesday, so includes anything falling Friday for northern folks) Miller B B stands for Brutal....cutoff that is Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The CMC is basically flipping Wes the bird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That montygomery county cutoff can happen. IIRC, Feb '14 "blizzard" yielded 24" in Damascus, but 5" in Takoma Park. Yeah I was about to say that the cutoff shown there, while it's highly unlikely the CMC is the correct solution, certainly can happen. The Feb 14 storm was a bit like that. I got about a foot of snow give or take and then melted all day while Westminster got like 2 feet as it continued to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That montygomery county cutoff can happen. IIRC, Feb '14 "blizzard" yielded 24" in Damascus, but 5" in Takoma Park. I grew up in Takoma Park and I will always consider it PG county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 JB be said this may be an analog for the Tuesday storm. I could go with that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_18–20,_1956_nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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