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March med-long range disco thread 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup...CMC had a very suppressed Sunday system and look at the beast it's showing now.   

So, in this weird twillight zone world, we want to root for a weak, suppressed miss on Sunday.

Yea there is only so much potential energy to be shared. If the Sunday wave runs off with all the stj energy then as the trough digs in right behind it the northern stream vort will be dominant and the focus of the phase that is going to happen. I think that much is becoming clear. The pattern is loaded. But if there is enough stj system left hanging about then the southern system will be the focus or they split the difference and meet in the middle doing that fujiwara dance some ggem runs did but either way that's a better solution for us.

Gfs is coming around though. Notice it finally "found" the march 17-18 threat also that the other globals picked up on already?  Lol. Poor unfortunate model.  

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hosj III

hosj III

Posted
Posted
Just now, AnthonyDabbundo said:

CMC has a 1005mb east of Savannah, while the GFS has no LP off the coast. So more CMC like with likely a very suppressed sunday event, leaving energy behind for a miller a?

Looks very suppressed for Sunday. It does have the Tuesday miller A but somewhat east/ots. Split the difference between the ukie and cmc tracks and you have an I-95 crusher.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Probably not. The vort wasn't that different from the last couple runs. 

I think the correlation is more with the gfs stronger Sunday idea simply takes too much of the juice off with it from the southern stream that's actually lurking down there for a change. So then as the northern stream vort is coming through the trough with nothing under it to phase into it simply pulls everything up into it. The stronger energy becomes the magnet or focal point so to speak. The more energy is lurking down south the more chance the phase happens below our latitude. That's my take. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted

Mercy...So, this next week...will either be the climax and coda of our winter of snowless misery, or our somewhat happy ending to what would have been a hopeless tale. The first would just be an unbelievable miss of both systems (that is, if the Sat-Sun is too far south to give us more than an inch, yet so far north that it ends up turning the other system into, as @stormtrackerso aptly put it, a Miller B screwjob--all coming at the end of an entire winter of bad snow chances. That would be No.1 on the most epic of snow fails in my book, and one that would need to be framed for future winters when we are complaining over 6-8 inches vs. 3-6 inches! The ladder  (one of the systems actually working out).....would be a nice, soft landing to a winter that had been in freefall. Wow.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We should start worrying about thermals 162 hours out.

I know your kidding but for those not, stop worrying about the boundary temps on the ggem at 144 hours. Look at this 850, the storm had somewhat cold air in place as it approaches so it won't need to do that much work to cool the surface and with this precip and the crashing heights as it bombs DC would do fine. Maybe not as well as the usual nw suspects but this is what u want to see. 

That's not going to be rain if the ggem is right about everything else. It's surface is just a few degrees warm. Besides that's probably wet snow at 34 degrees anyways. 

IMG_0816.PNGIMG_0817.PNG

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, hosj III said:

Looks very suppressed for Sunday. It does have the Tuesday miller A but somewhat east/ots. Split the difference between the ukie and cmc tracks and you have an I-95 crusher.

My take is the ukmet is about to go nuts just after 144. Maybe even a better solution for DC. Look at where the h5 trough is digging in.  You can see the surface reflection inland from that already. That is about to phase with the energy off hatteras and 12 hours later there is probably a 980 low off ocean city.  Anyone see what I'm seeing there?

IMG_0818.GIF

Compared to the surface and h5 for gfs it's much better. 

IMG_0820.PNG

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My take is the ukmet is about to go nuts just after 144. Maybe even a better solution for DC. Look at where the h5 trough is digging in.  You can see the surface reflection inland from that already. That is about to phase with the energy off hatteras and 12 hours later there is probably a 980 low off ocean city.  Anyone see what I'm seeing there?

IMG_0818.GIF

Compared to the surface and h5 for gfs it's much better. 

IMG_0820.PNG

I'm with you.  I thought he was reading the UKMET wrong and this confirms it.

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

EC clearly not digging the northern stream as far west as the GFS and GGEM at 120hrs.   Probably going to be similar to 12z..

 

Edit:Last second coastal gets pulled back into NH.  A little similar to 12/30/00. We get screwed.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, just saw the updated maps.  I think we'd all take that at this point, although NYC gets more, which nobody wants. 

The snowfall distribution sorta reminds me of the 2/95 storm, but I can't recall how that storm actually developed.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Quick rundown of the EPS. 

The ensemble at this point favor a central PA strip of max snow for our Friday event. Places trace amounts of snow just to the north of DC with the 1/2 inch line running the PA/MD line.

The Sunday storm is suppressed even more withe max snowfall strip of 2 inches running through central N Carolina vs. the N Carolina/Va line on the 12z. Some trace amounts do reach the extreme southern portions of the region. Barring somewhat major changes with the pv or the energy running across the south there is very little room for this feature to move much farther north.

The Tuesday storm looks better on the 500's. Deeper digging of the trough, which is well placed, turning negative tilt as it approaches the east coast. Missing some frames for the snowfall means so had to get it from day 8. 2 inch line has moved south placing it south of Baltimore and just north of DC. Gradient pattern from there up to the PA/MD line where we went from 2 inches to 2 1/2 inches.

As far as the full 15 days we see a small degradation mostly across the board with the totals coming in roughly a 1/2 inch less. DC sits in the 3 1/2 inch line and we see these totals increase until the MD/PA line which sees 5 inches.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Just a quick note on the EPS before I look at some other things. Been following, what is now the window around day 13, for a little bit now and it has my interest somewhat. There is a fairly strong signal for a possible  significant storm located in the east at this time. The fact that we are talking at such ranges in such a high flux pattern may of be of significance as the pattern may be strongly arguing for this to occur. Or then again, maybe the models are just taking another half time break in the longer range as they have been doing most of the winter. At this point the models suggest that this would be a NE storm with us watching from the cheap seats. And this is due mainly to the fact the pattern relaxes shortly after our possible day 7 storm allowing the flow to pull north and the 850's along with it. 

But I can see two reasonable scenarios off hand that could very well put us in the game. First, the pattern argues for major amplification of features at this time. At this point the trough, the models now project, which is decent but not extreme, does pull cold down with it but it is too little and to late for us. But what if the models are muting this trough somewhat because of the longer range and in actuality comes in deeper and more pronounced, which in this pattern is quite possible. If that were the case, we would see a better ability to pull the cold air in to benefit us.

Second scenario we could possibly see would revolve roughly around day 11. What is hurting our chances is the prolonged relax in the pattern after our day 7 storm that pulls everything north basically torching the CONUS. Now this is only being hinted at with the models, a day 11 storm, but what if we in fact do see one. This would actually bring the boundary and the temps back south setting us up for the possible day 13 storm. Of course there is always the chance that if we do see a day 11 storm this would pooch our shot at the follow up. So there is that.

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