BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks like we might find a way to get Miller B/S screwed. Yeah if that Ohio Valley low becomes the dominant low, I dont like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, didn't like how far north the vort is. May as well bat the cycle of ways to fail. Haven't had a miller b screwgie yet. Well, another cycle, another solution. I like the fact that there's still something there tho. Plenty of time to either dig or find a s/w to phase with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On this run, congrats NYC/BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, another cycle, another solution. I like the fact that there's still something there tho. Plenty of time to either dig or find a s/w to phase with Yep, it will change every cycle. We need a dig into the TN valley to survive a miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, didn't like how far north the vort is. May as well bat the cycle of ways to fail. Haven't had a miller b screwgie yet. Is there any link between the northern shift on the weekend storm and the position of the vort for Tuesday? Also, why is this now a Miller B instead of a Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Canaidan is similar to 12z so far...pretty far south still at 1AM Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 00z GFS throws us some comma head wrap around snow with next week's system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Is there any link between the northern shift on the weekend storm and the position of the vort for Tuesday? Probably not. The vort wasn't that different from the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, chris624wx said: 00z GFS throws us some comma head wrap around snow with next week's system Yeah, because thatll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Well, I can see the CMC 500 maps at 138 and 174 (skipped to that) and if that's not an old run, it's loaded don't have the panels in between yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, it will change every cycle. We need a dig into the TN valley to survive a miller b. To my amateur eyes, it seems like surviving a Miller b + La Niña is a horrible equation that we can't bet on working out. Did this kind of a miss not happen in December 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, I can see the CMC 500 maps at 174 (skipped to that) and if that's not an old run, it's loaded I think I am liking the CMC H5 @ 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, I can see the CMC 500 maps at 174 (skipped to that) and if that's not an old run, it's loaded I saw the same thing. It loads to 138 then directly to 174. Looks similar to 12z at the same timeframe. Now to see exactly how it gets there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 CMC looks a lot like 12z. I-95 rains. NW suburbs do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 lol, the cmc is a 988 nuke off of OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I don't even have to look to guess the problem. If Sunday was more amped it probably stole the southern stream energy so the Tuesday system became northern steam dominant. That's how it went with all the ensemble members from today. Very suppressed Sunday solutions had miller a lows Tuesday. Stronger Sunday members had northern dominant miller b. So if Sunday trends north it better damn well come all the way and crush us because it will ruin the setup for Tuesday either way if it snows just south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 CMC is a near wet dream for next week. Keeps the Sunday storm suppressed, keeps some energy back in the Gulf, and then shoots a low up the coast to meet NS energy. Could use the low to be a tick east but yeah. Definitely shows the possibility should Sunday's storm stay suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I'd risk overamped vs a Miller B screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 CMC is a triple phaser. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don't even have to look to guess the problem. If Sunday was more amped it probably stole the southern stream energy so the Tuesday system became northern steam dominant. That's how it went with all the ensemble members from today. Very suppressed Sunday solutions had miller a lows Tuesday. Stronger Sunday members had northern dominant miller b. So if Sunday trends north it better damn well come all the way and crush us because it will ruin the setup for Tuesday either way if it snows just south of us. Yup...CMC had a very suppressed Sunday system and look at the beast it's showing now. So, in this weird twillight zone world, we want to root for a weak, suppressed miss on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 With the Canadian, yes it has a coastal low, but there's no high pressure to our north or northwest. Instead there's weak low pressure near the Great Lakes. The high has instead moved off into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, hosj III said: CMC looks a lot like 12z. I-95 rains. NW suburbs do great. Southern stream saves us on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Excellent GGEM. I'd sign up for that in a second and call it a winter. Hope the Sunday storm becomes a whimper so that we can get an amped up Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I will have to say... the CMC has been the most consistent with Sunday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC is a triple phaser. Lol. We should start worrying about thermals 162 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We should start worrying about thermals 162 hours out. Well, since the track, qpf, and evolution is nailed down there's really nothing left to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Well, since the track, qpf, and evolution is nailed down there's really nothing left to discuss. That's what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Ukie at 144 is 1006mb east of hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Anyone look at the UKMET for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, hosj III said: Ukie at 144 is 1006mb east of hatteras CMC has a 1005mb east of Savannah, while the GFS has no LP off the coast. So more CMC like with likely a very suppressed sunday event, leaving energy behind for a miller a? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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