mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last post for a while. Gefs snow mean overall increased about 1 to 2" across the region. That despite the fact we lost about 1.5-2" from Sunday. So again a net increase of about 2.5-4" for the period AFTER next Sunday. That's pretty significant and we would be weenieing out over it if not for the loss of Sunday tainting things. On to 0z and hopefully another step in the right direction. What's the mean for dca and bwi through Wednesday if you don't mind? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What's the mean for dca and bwi through Wednesday if you don't mind? Thanks 4.5" at DCA and 4" at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, snjókoma said: 4.5" at DCA and 4" at BWI. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: For this far out, thats an excellent look Chicago bound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Watch it pass us by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GEFS not looking too bad, still insisting on the strongerfirst wave more than most 12z guidance. Now what we need is the 12z CMC southern stream with the 18z GFS northern stream and it's weenie heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hour 168 ( MREFS ) 500s...... 180.. One of those stands out more than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, Amped said: GEFS not looking too bad, still insisting on the strongerfirst wave more than most 12z guidance. Now what we need is the 12z CMC southern stream with the 18z GFS northern stream and it's weenie heaven. After a last loop of the h5 for EPS geps and gefs they do all look promising Day 7. And don't sleep on day 9 either there is a very strong signal for that range there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I'm pretty gun shy about tues. It wasnt but a few days ago when Sunday looked very promising on the ensembles and then ops started doing their thing. But it morphed into a piddley flat and weak vort. We'll see how it looks in 3-4 days for better or worse. The one thing it has going for it over Sunday is it's when blocking is relaxing so there's that. If it rains all over us then this winter was not only historically bad but also a complete waste of the opportunities we had. They weren't plentiful but there were definitely enough to have a typical sub climo winter but not getting 1" out of a single storm is exceptionally crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm pretty gun shy about tues. It wasnt but a few days ago when Sunday looked very promising on the ensembles and then ops started doing their thing. But it morphed into a piddley flat and weak vort. We'll see how it looks in 3-4 days for better or worse. The one thing it has going for it over Sunday is it's when blocking is relaxing so there's that. If it rains all over us then this winter was not only historically bad but also a complete waste of the opportunities we had. They weren't plentiful but there were definitely enough to have a typical sub climo winter but not getting 1" out of a single storm is exceptionally crappy. Whatever can go wrong...smh Even for here this is just gut-wrenching. When was the last winter that was this bad? And what is the common denominator that has screwed up the few chances we've had? I just wanna know why, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whatever can go wrong...smh Even for here this is just gut-wrenching. When was the last winter that was this bad? And what is the common denominator that has screwed up the few chances we've had? I just wanna know why, lol Last winter had the blizzard, so we forget how gawdawful the rest of the winter was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, B-Paq said: Last winter had the blizzard, so we forget how gawdawful the rest of the winter was So true. If it wasn't for the blizzard I would of only had 51/2" of snow last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Will be interesting to see how the southern stream sorts itself out.. UK and CMC have a low in the NE gulf at 144hrs. EC has it too but weaker and further south. That's in the ideal position to give us a storm. Dec 2009 and Feb 2013 both had similar lows that trended way stronger as we got into the short range... Of course the northern stream needs has just as much uncertainty, but a southern stream low that appears out of nowhere and then keeps getting stronger every run is more fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'm pretty gun shy about tues. It wasnt but a few days ago when Sunday looked very promising on the ensembles and then ops started doing their thing. But it morphed into a piddley flat and weak vort. We'll see how it looks in 3-4 days for better or worse. The one thing it has going for it over Sunday is it's when blocking is relaxing so there's that. If it rains all over us then this winter was not only historically bad but also a complete waste of the opportunities we had. They weren't plentiful but there were definitely enough to have a typical sub climo winter but not getting 1" out of a single storm is exceptionally crappy. I'm not as confident as I would be in a normal year but this pattern feels different then all winter. Legit blocking. 50/50. Trough in the east. Real cold around. That's a basic setup we've been lacking. We blew threat 1 but I think we still have 2 left. Maybe 3 if the reload day 14-16 is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, wkd said: So true. If it wasn't for the blizzard I would of only had 51/2" of snow last winter. According to Google maps your location is 164 miles northeast of DC so that matters how, exactly? EDIT: thought you were being a smartass, but then re-read it as 5 and one half inches and re-evaluated - my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Weak or not, no way Sunday isn't coming north. Thats my story and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, B-Paq said: According to Google maps your location is 164 miles northeast of DC so that matters how, exactly? EDIT: thought you were being a smartass, but then re-read it as 5 and one half inches and re-evaluated - my bad Why apologize for their typo? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Weak or not, no way Sunday isn't coming north. Thats my story and I'm sticking to it. North enough for us, or for Richmond? FWIW I wrote it off.... now I'm rooting for a snow nuke next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Last winter had the blizzard, so we forget how gawdawful the rest of the winter was And that blizzard was ruined by DCA #NeverForgetIn all seriousness, I wonder how much actual COLD we're going to get in March, snow pattern or no pattern. I wonder if we'll even end up below average.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: And that blizzard was ruined by DCA #NeverForget In all seriousness, I wonder how much actual COLD we're going to get in March, snow pattern or no pattern. I wonder if we'll even end up below average.... I highly doubt 2017 can have + anomalies too much longer sequentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Why apologize for their typo? lol I don't post much, but read every day. Trying to be polite to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The NAM even says no to MD/PA border snow Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 NAM went way north with Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: The NAM even says no to MD/PA border snow Fri Yeah the 2017 massacre winter rolls on Can't even imagine what kind of monkey wrench the early changes will mean down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Weak or not, no way Sunday isn't coming north. Thats my story and I'm sticking to it. Yep. No way in March do the northern latitudes bully the south like it's been playing out on the models the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 36 minutes ago, Fozz said: North enough for us, or for Richmond? FWIW I wrote it off.... now I'm rooting for a snow nuke next Tuesday. Lot more likely for Richmond than Raleigh IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I think if we could we would take some of the 18z GEFS members and ride off into the sunset... like e13 or e17 through Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 33 minutes ago, B-Paq said: I don't post much, but read every day. Trying to be polite to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 We need the DGEX right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lot more likely for Richmond than Raleigh IMO. The way it's been trending the bullseye is going to be less than 2" wherever it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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