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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last post for a while. Gefs snow mean overall increased about 1 to 2" across the region. That despite the fact we lost about 1.5-2" from Sunday. So again a net increase of about 2.5-4" for the period AFTER next Sunday. That's pretty significant and we would be weenieing out over it if not for the loss of Sunday tainting things. On to 0z and hopefully another step in the right direction. 

What's the mean for dca and bwi through Wednesday if you don't mind? Thanks

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22 minutes ago, Amped said:

GEFS not looking too bad, still insisting on the strongerfirst wave more than most 12z guidance.

 

Now what we need is the 12z CMC southern stream with the 18z GFS northern stream and it's weenie heaven.

After a last loop of the h5 for EPS geps and gefs they do all look promising Day 7. And don't sleep on day 9 either there is a very strong signal for that range there also. 

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I'm pretty gun shy about tues. It wasnt but a few days ago when Sunday looked very promising on the ensembles and then ops started doing their thing. But it morphed into a piddley flat and weak vort. We'll see how it looks in 3-4 days for better or worse. 

 

The one thing it has going for it over Sunday is it's when blocking is relaxing so there's that. If it rains all over us then this winter was not only historically bad but also a complete waste of the opportunities we had. They weren't plentiful but there were definitely enough to have a typical sub climo winter but not getting 1" out of a single storm is exceptionally crappy. 

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41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm pretty gun shy about tues. It wasnt but a few days ago when Sunday looked very promising on the ensembles and then ops started doing their thing. But it morphed into a piddley flat and weak vort. We'll see how it looks in 3-4 days for better or worse. 

 

The one thing it has going for it over Sunday is it's when blocking is relaxing so there's that. If it rains all over us then this winter was not only historically bad but also a complete waste of the opportunities we had. They weren't plentiful but there were definitely enough to have a typical sub climo winter but not getting 1" out of a single storm is exceptionally crappy. 

Whatever can go wrong...smh Even for here this is just gut-wrenching. When was the last winter that was this bad? And what is the common denominator that has screwed up the few chances we've had? I just wanna know why, lol

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whatever can go wrong...smh Even for here this is just gut-wrenching. When was the last winter that was this bad? And what is the common denominator that has screwed up the few chances we've had? I just wanna know why, lol

Last winter had the blizzard, so we forget how gawdawful the rest of the winter was :lol:

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Will be interesting to see how the southern stream sorts itself out..    UK and CMC  have a low in the NE gulf at 144hrs.   EC has it too but weaker and further south.   That's in the ideal position to give us a storm.   Dec 2009 and Feb 2013 both had similar lows that trended way stronger as we got into the short range...

 

Of course the northern stream needs has just as much uncertainty,  but a southern stream low that appears out of nowhere and then keeps getting stronger every run is more fun to watch.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm pretty gun shy about tues. It wasnt but a few days ago when Sunday looked very promising on the ensembles and then ops started doing their thing. But it morphed into a piddley flat and weak vort. We'll see how it looks in 3-4 days for better or worse. 

 

The one thing it has going for it over Sunday is it's when blocking is relaxing so there's that. If it rains all over us then this winter was not only historically bad but also a complete waste of the opportunities we had. They weren't plentiful but there were definitely enough to have a typical sub climo winter but not getting 1" out of a single storm is exceptionally crappy. 

I'm not as confident as I would be in a normal year but this pattern feels different then all winter. Legit blocking. 50/50. Trough in the east. Real cold around. That's a basic setup we've been lacking. We blew threat 1 but I think we still have 2 left. Maybe 3 if the reload day 14-16 is real. 

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14 minutes ago, wkd said:

So true.  If it wasn't for the blizzard I would of only had 51/2" of snow last winter.

According to Google maps your location is 164 miles northeast of DC so that matters how, exactly?

EDIT: thought you were being a smartass, but then re-read it as 5 and one half inches and re-evaluated - my bad :unsure:

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11 minutes ago, B-Paq said:

According to Google maps your location is 164 miles northeast of DC so that matters how, exactly?

EDIT: thought you were being a smartass, but then re-read it as 5 and one half inches and re-evaluated - my bad :unsure:

Why apologize for their typo? lol

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1 minute ago, paulythegun said:


And that blizzard was ruined by DCA #NeverForget

In all seriousness, I wonder how much actual COLD we're going to get in March, snow pattern or no pattern. I wonder if we'll even end up below average....

I highly doubt 2017 can have + anomalies too much longer sequentially.

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