yoda Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: No... but I know it will be mentioned at some point...lol Try like maybe Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last years rates had to be close. Some places bout your way picked up almost 40" and the bulk came in 24 hours. I guess close, for a time, but that still was a 30+ hour storm. Big difference in a 16-hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 LWX Zones have snow likely for Sat night already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX Zones have snow likely for Sat night already Putting likely pops on a D5 event will burn you more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Putting likely pops on a D5 event will burn you more times than not. Well then I'd advise you to call Sterling and let them know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Well then I'd advise you to call Sterling and let them know I'll show myself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just for fun of course, but the 12z JMA was a MECS for Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Well then I'd advise you to call Sterling and let them know I just called them. They are changing Gaithersburg north to chance snow next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: thats a nice list. I'll take the top 4 please lol. 3 HECS and a 5-10" area wide storm in 2004. 1993 sprinkled in cause why not. One the entire list, there is only one whiff for the DC metro area: 2/12/01. Every other date had wintry precip within a day or two. Two were dry, small events. The rest had at least decent precip. The mid-March events in 1980 and 1984 were similar to each other being snow to ZR events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I do find it interesting that my zone has me high of 42 on Sunday. Rain/snow. I hope it's colder than low 40s. It is March but still...maybe they see something beyond the model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The Winter Storm Threat graphics started being used again this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 We need this storm within 90 hours so we can add SREFs, RGEM, and NAM to our model overanalysis. And 3x the NAM models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chase said: The Winter Storm Threat graphics started being used again this afternoon. Why wouldn't this be medium impact, low confidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree to use them with caution but that list is wow. It says to me this has room to trend more amplified. Many of the storms on that list were monsters. 1983, 1987, 2003, 1993 all in there. Plus some that were too amped and were interior storms more then here like march 1994. There are a few suppressed options though so that is a threat but that list says this has huge upside. Yeah, this reminds me (so far) of 1/25/87 where down south of dca/bwi area jackpoted. I was living in Glen Burnie at the time and got 6+" but still recall stressing about missing the jackpot. I guess I got spoiled after the big one 3 days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Why wouldn't this be medium impact, low confidence? Ultra conservative play. I would do the same on a Monday for a Saturday night storm in March. As you know we have failed much closer to an event than this one. It's easy to move a check mark around if warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 49 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Where is the SREF? Out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Unfortunately it's a little misleading too. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last years rates had to be close. Some places bout your way picked up almost 40" and the bulk came in 24 hours. Yeah. We had 4" per hour rates for A LONG time. Was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Unless guidance changes, I don't see how this can have much upside from what's already been advertised. I think we can almost rule out widespread 12" amounts with jackpots exceeding 18" or anything like that. No model has shown a phase or anything close to closing off at h5. The upper tier storms are special like that. That could change but so far I don't see much chance of a 1-2 punch or a bowling ball with rapid intensification. The blocking keeps the speed slow enough for a pretty good storm so it's not a progressive quick hitter. But a nasty upper level low like we've seen in the past seems very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Unless guidance changes, I don't see how this can have much upside from what's already been advertised. I think we can almost rule out widespread 12" amounts with jackpots exceeding 18" or anything like that. No model has shown a phase or anything close to closing off at h5. The upper tier storms are special like that. That could change but so far I don't see much chance of a 1-2 punch or a bowling ball with rapid intensification. The blocking keeps the speed slow enough for a pretty good storm so it's not a progressive quick hitter. But a nasty upper level low like we've seen in the past seems very unlikely. I didn't feel like eating my Cheerios anyway Bob thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 40 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I guess close, for a time, but that still was a 30+ hour storm. Big difference in a 16-hour storm. The vast majority of that snow fell between 5pm and about 3pm the next day from my memory though. So during that time there had to be some crazy rates to get that much. I'm not saying 83 wasn't better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How so? No comment. I guess they don't have much of a choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 WPC experimental 6 day graphic seems realistic this far out. 30% chance DC north for 0.25"+ snow. Interesting they favor a northern solution as of 19z when they updated the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 38 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Just for fun of course, but the 12z JMA was a MECS for Day 6. Did JI put you up to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, BTRWx said: No comment. I guess they don't have much of a choice. Agreed. Plenty of time for guidance to converge. Personally not convinced the words "Ugh" and "next" won't be used at some point in this journey. hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I didn't feel like eating my Cheerios anyway Bob thanks We haven't been able to eat cheerios for 100 straight days. Just keeping that streak intact... I'm just pre-emptively striking crazy talk of past monsters unless the setup significantly changes. On a high note for you...right now the odds of you being in the jack is higher than us MD folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 49 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Just for fun of course, but the 12z JMA was a MECS for Day 6. And an HECS day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We haven't been able to eat cheerios for 100 straight days. Just keeping that streak intact... I'm just pre-emptively striking crazy talk of past monsters unless the setup significantly changes. On a high note for you...right now the odds of you being in the jack is higher than us MD folks. I don't think anyone is expecting 2 feet. I can see an area of 12" though if this maxes out. Jan 30 2010 is on the list and this could be that type of storm. Hopefully about 50 miles north of that though for my sake. Of course if we get what came after that we will all be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think anyone is expecting 2 feet. I can see an area of 12" though if this maxes out. Jan 30 2010 is on the list and this could be that type of storm. Hopefully about 50 miles north of that though for my sake. Of course if we get what came after that we will all be good. I hope you get bulls-eyed. You have been a beacon of light for this forum. Tireless analysis and optimism. But an area wide paste job would be fun too. We are at our best when snow is inbound and a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think anyone is expecting 2 feet. I can see an area of 12" though if this maxes out. Jan 30 2010 is on the list and this could be that type of storm. Hopefully about 50 miles north of that though for my sake. Of course if we get what came after that we will all be good. Jan 30th 2010 cutoff was nasty for sure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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