Ji Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS gave it the junior college try tues-wed next week. Close enough for now. It gave us kelly oubre...we need bealSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 ooooh-la-lah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: If you mean don't get you started about the Red line and its...issues, I hear you! I have to take that one any time I head into DC. One banter post here from me. Blue is the new red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Certainly a lot more emphatic with a signal for Tuesday than 12Z was, and far more than 00Z. Comparison between 18Z today (top) and 12Z (bottom) valid at the same time for Tuesday evening, just looking at the surface here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: It gave us kelly oubre...we need beal Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Bogdanovich at the 3pt line would be even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'll wait to get excited until we are inside of D5 for anything remainder of this winter. Seeing the Sunday opportunity fizzle since yesterday morning stings. Lots of stings these last 60 days. Just really hard to get invested. D5 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Bogdanovich at the 3pt line would be even better Or I'd take Kyrie Irving calmly shooting a 3 over Steph Curry with 53 seconds left in the Finals Game 7 last year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It will trend until Thursday and be gone by Saturday. Book it. I'm in. Or it will lock on to a blizzard for everyone north of the MD line at 00z tonight and then not budge one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: PSU is driving the Tuesday Train. Not half bad on the 18z GFS. Trending.. I'll take pole position on this one. This is the first threat all year I actually feel confident enough in to take ownership. But it's march 7th so what am I waiting for. I'll try to lead us to water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CARDC79 said: I'll wait to get excited until we are inside of D5 for anything remainder of this winter. Seeing the Sunday opportunity fizzle since yesterday morning stings. Lots of stings these last 60 days. Just really hard to get invested. D5 or bust. Agreed. Not a fan of Miller A. Everything would have to move NW. Not even sure if it's Miller A. Sunday was way better in its virtual prime..I said virtual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: I'll take pole position on this one. This is the first threat all year I actually feel confident enough in to take ownership. But it's march 7th so what am I waiting for. I'll try to lead us to water. As long as its frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Agreed. Not a fan of Miller A. Everything would have to move NW. Not even sure if it's Miller A. Sunday was way better in its virtual prime..I said virtual I loved the Sunday look...Gradient pattern, perfect Baffin Island block, vortices pinwheeling beneath, active jet. sigh. G-damn weak ass sw! I still have a little hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ji said: It gave us kelly oubre...we need beal Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk lol grunfeld loves projects. He'd fit in well here in the long term thread. We just needed a bobby portis especially since we're outside the snow lottery aka Jan/feb. oubre has potential tho so in Ernie we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, Amped said: Or it will lock on to a blizzard for everyone north of the MD line at 00z tonight and then not budge one bit. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dude, bask in this..the GFS is trying. Lol. This isn't a new thing. While people were busy mourning the loss of the Sunday storm they somehow missed the pretty darn strong signal across 12z guidance. The storm was on the ggem/U.K./navgem/JMA/ a good deal of support in the gefs and EPS (wish I could post the EPS day 6.5 mean slp and locations) and even the op gfs at 12z took a huge step towards a storm. This was another step yes. Sometimes, rightfully so, I get criticized for looking past something but once in a while that can be an advantage. I look at the whole suite of guidance and all 2 weeks holistically. And while I did start to doubt my assessment when things started to look good for Sunday a couple days ago, even then when I would roll the h5 loop through the whole period on all the guidance the 14-15th kept popping out as when the trough axis seemed best for a for amplification. And while we were focused on Sunday I kept seeing enough random op runs and ensemble members spitting out big storms around that date to keep it in my mind. So last night and today when there was a sudden uptick in guidance hitting that period hard I jumped on because it fits what I sort of expected several days ago looking into this period before details emerged. The op euro is troubling and i want to see that get on the train tonight but the op euro has been flipping around a lot Day 6-10 all year so one bad run isn't alarming. The EPS had support. Both for day 6 and 10. It's a decent window as the blocking fades and the PV relaxes. We know that drill. As for the gfs it's been late to the party lately so it's catching up to the idea the ggem has had for a while and ukmet/navgem/JMA latched into this morning. I am pretty confident something's going to amplify during that window. In the end too amplified might end up the bigger problem. Buckle up this might be a bumpy ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'm on board with wave three. Most models paint a picture of a decent storm. Hopefully Euro shows good signs tonight.Of course I'm leaving for FL for March madness and spring training Tuesday evening so I have this funny feeling my plans will be changed.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 40 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Tuesday will be the next 16/17 floparooney. Maybe but it's there and this is probably it and those of us still tracking might as well take it to the finish line right? I do think in the end looking at the h5 setup, over amped and rain might become the bigger risk to killing the Tuesday threat then under. I don't see how something doesn't develop in that setup. Weather that something dumps the good on our backyard is a trickier proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I loved the Sunday look...Gradient pattern, perfect Baffin Island block, vortices pinwheeling beneath, active jet. sigh. G-damn weak ass sw! I still have a little hope Me too. I fully expected to be way, way south. But it's hanging in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, vastly improved on the GFS....the PSU thing is the one to watch. I'm fully ejected from CAPEwreck. I'm riding the train with the most snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I took a peak at the 18z gefs. Stronger signal for something in the Tuesday/Wednesday Time frame than 12z gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 37 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Agreed. Not a fan of Miller A. Everything would have to move NW. Not even sure if it's Miller A. Sunday was way better in its virtual prime..I said virtual Only on the gfs. Most other guidance is west of that already. It has more room to amplify in the flow then Sunday did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I loved the Sunday look...Gradient pattern, perfect Baffin Island block, vortices pinwheeling beneath, active jet. sigh. G-damn weak ass sw! I still have a little hope Don't feel bad I got fooled for one day before I saw the warts. It was a legit threat if the vort was stronger. No way to know it would crap out. The Tuesday thing is more dynamic which makes picking out the general pattern support for it a bit easier. But the details will determine our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don't feel bad I got fooled for one day before I saw the warts. It was a legit threat if the vort was stronger. No way to know it would crap out. The Tuesday thing is more dynamic which makes picking out the general pattern support for it a bit easier. But the details will determine our fate. The question is would there be enough cold air? Seems some of the members show that risk on the 18z gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don't feel bad I got fooled for one day before I saw the warts. It was a legit threat if the vort was stronger. No way to know it would crap out. The Tuesday thing is more dynamic which makes picking out the general pattern support for it a bit easier. But the details will determine our fate. I'm counting on Tuesday to have that 8"+ dynamic snowstorm that I've been wishing for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'm in Worcester Mass on the 15th how am I looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: The question is would there be enough cold air? Seems some of the members show that risk on the 18z gefs. Yea I do think rain is the bigger risk not suppression with Tuesday. A few big rainstorms in the gefs. Not some big snows too. At least 8 decent hits and several really big ones. Several 1-3" type snows there too. It's a decent signal and another jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm in Worcester Mass on the 15th how am I looking? First call is 12-18". Worcester always cleans up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Ji said: It gave us kelly oubre...we need beal Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk No matter how hard we try...Cleveland broken legs and all still gets snow. Oh...I mean a championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Through day 7 gefs looks to support Tuesday to a degree. Some nice hits.. I bet it gets even better by 0z I'm not worried about the half that don't have a storm because if you look at the members a lot are still too amped with the Sunday system. Expecting them to get day 7 right when they are way off day 5 is not realistic. As they come in line they should get better picture of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Last post for a while. Gefs snow mean overall increased about 1 to 2" across the region. That despite the fact we lost about 1.5-2" from Sunday. So again a net increase of about 2.5-4" for the period AFTER next Sunday. That's pretty significant and we would be weenieing out over it if not for the loss of Sunday tainting things. On to 0z and hopefully another step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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