ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: I'm just very skeptical. Trend has been for less and less amplication as time goes on. While the pattern currently simulated looks good, like all things this winter that has ended up overdone. As the old forecasting saying goes..."The trend is your friend". Go with persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: I'm just very skeptical. Trend has been for less and less amplication as time goes on. While the pattern currently simulated looks good, like all things this winter that has ended up overdone. No doubt on the east coast. Different story in the midwest and pac coast though. There's been a lot of very amplified deep lows this winter. Seems that we would need to sacrifice chickens and stab voodoo dolls to have that happen here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 38 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It's effortless lol ;-). I just look at stuff the way it was done years before ensembles, teleconnections and 70 different models were introduced. Take out the digital foolery and look closely at what the atmosphere is doing through a forecast funnel from the top to the bottom...most important is what's taking place in the H3-H5 range...looking for jet patterns, pot vort and watching verification. It's all in the jet. Beyond day 5, and especially day 7-10 is all models initializing and simulating a billion things at once and projecting where it could go. Reality settles in after that. Takes notes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No doubt on the east coast. Different story in the midwest and pac coast though. There's been a lot of very amplified deep lows this winter. Seems that we would need to sacrifice chickens and stab voodoo dolls to have that happen here. lol Yup that is correct ;-) lol. It has been snowing on command out west this year. Saw recent reports of 650+ inches in parts of the Sierra this winter season. Heck, they've had more snow in Seattle and Portland than we have had here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: While I agree with what you say, I strongly believe the biggest culprit is the vort has been modeled weaker and weaker every run and this is long before it approaches us. To play devil's advocate, if the vort ends up being a good bit more amped as it traverses the rockies, it will have a much easier time punching into the suppressed flow as it crosses the mid section of the CONUS. Combine that with the potential that models are overdoing confluence/suppression downstream and it could be a significant storm without needing to phase. What was your take on the EPS for next week. Both the day 7 and 10 threats. I felt they showed a huge jump towards something. I know everyone's but hurt over Sunday and rightfully so but I always thought this was a multiple threat window and the one after Sunday had more upside. But wondering if maybe I've just lost it after the winter we've had since no one else seems at all interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Models can be very tricky in the long range. All it takes is an overestimated vort simulation and walah you have a major east coast storm. Beyond day 5, 6, 7, it's basically a guess at how pieces of energy that may not even exist might come together. Those that are at the master and phd levels who run models and do more thorough research might argue that the processes involved have improved with time, I certainly agree, but for those having to make an actual forecast and make a living doing it, I wouldn't rest my cap on anything beyond day 5 given all the factors needed for something to come together. It's rare. 09/10 and 16 it happened but those are usually exceptions and not the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Models can be very tricky in the long range. All it takes is an overestimated vort simulation and walah you have a major east coast storm. Oh man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: What was your take on the EPS for next week. Both the day 7 and 10 threats. I felt they showed a huge jump towards something. I know everyone's but hurt over Sunday and rightfully so but I always thought this was a multiple threat window and the one after Sunday had more upside. But wondering if maybe I've just lost it after the winter we've had since no one else seems at all interested. D7 looks half decent. It's counter-intuitive with the low near the lakes. Seems that actually NEED that there to tug on the flow with the southern energy. The antecedent air mass is stout enough to not worry about return flow screwing everything. Some of the best solutions have the 2 lows do a "dance" of sorts and play nice together. There are some straight miller A's in there too so it appears that there may be multiple ways to make it work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh man.... I think he meant vie ol a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: I think he meant vie ol a. Oh man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 If anybody cares, the 18z GFS is even farther south than 12z at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 WalaSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I didn't think it was possible, but it looks even farther south so far on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: If anybody cares, the 18z GFS is even farther south than 12z at 96 hrs. Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I'm just very skeptical. Trend has been for less and less amplication as time goes on. While the pattern currently simulated looks good, like all things this winter that has ended up overdone. I can't argue with that. True story. But we're at the stage where the models begin adjusting this winter. The Sunday storm began its death march to oblivion at day 7. The good look for us was just a mirage as the guidance adjusted south. But right now at least trends are good for next week so maybe. I don't give up easy. I'm stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: If anybody cares, the 18z GFS is even farther south than 12z at 96 hrs. Gulf boaters beware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I think he meant vie ol a. Oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Looks like the 00z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It's voila by the waySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I didn't think it was possible, but it looks even farther south so far on the 18z At least we will have our second cold/dry/breezy weekend in a row. If it wont snow, nothing like cold and dry I aways say. Oh and presto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can't argue with that. True story. But we're at the stage where the models begin adjusting this winter. The Sunday storm began its death march to oblivion at day 7. The good look for us was just a mirage as the guidance adjusted south. But right now at least trends are good for next week so maybe. I don't give up easy. I'm stubborn. Keeping the dream alive :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The storm will be onshore near walla walla and be sampled soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Weak disturbance over NV @114 that wasn't there last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Models can be very tricky in the long range. All it takes is an overestimated vort simulation and walah you have a major east coast storm. Beyond day 5, 6, 7, it's basically a guess at how pieces of energy that may not even exist might come together. Those that are at the master and phd levels who run models and do more thorough research might argue that the processes involved have improved with time, I certainly agree, but for those having to make an actual forecast and make a living doing it, I wouldn't rest my cap on anything beyond day 5 given all the factors needed for something to come together. It's rare. 09/10 and 16 it happened but those are usually exceptions and not the rule. The problem is that "the big ones lock in early". And anytime you see something at the 7-10 range that looks plausible and sticks around for a couple of runs... it is human nature to say "why can't this be one of those big ones".. I guess more often than not you get mixed results. I remember in 93 watching the weather channel.. and the mets were going on and on about how they have never seen such a high confidence forecast... and I think that was in the 5 day range... I mean they were going nuts about how all the computer models agreed and how consistent the output was.... Now days some people expect the the models to lock in around day 6... which apparently is completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I think I started this weekend deal. I know I liked the look early, and promoted the hell out of it. As the conductor/driver/engineer of this train, I must warn that derailment now looks imminent. Brace yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, PDIII said: The problem is that "the big ones lock in early". And anytime you see something at the 7-10 range that looks plausible and sticks around for a couple of runs... it is human nature to say "why can't this be one of those big ones".. I guess more often than not you get mixed results. I remember in 93 watching the weather channel.. and the mets were going on and on about how they have never seen such a high confidence forecast... and I think that was in the 5 day range... I mean they were going nuts about how all the computer models agreed and how consistent the output was.... Now days some people expect the the models to lock in around day 6... which apparently is completely wrong. It can happen, but definitely the exception and not the rule. There are storms it's tough to lock in 48 hours out around here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 PSU is driving the Tuesday Train. Not half bad on the 18z GFS. Trending.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Models can be very tricky in the long range. All it takes is an overestimated vort simulation and walah you have a major east coast storm. Beyond day 5, 6, 7, it's basically a guess at how pieces of energy that may not even exist might come together. Those that are at the master and phd levels who run models and do more thorough research might argue that the processes involved have improved with time, I certainly agree, but for those having to make an actual forecast and make a living doing it, I wouldn't rest my cap on anything beyond day 5 given all the factors needed for something to come together. It's rare. 09/10 and 16 it happened but those are usually exceptions and not the rule. Very true but I don't think any of us are looking for 2-3 feet. Let's start with 2-3" and go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think I started this weekend deal. I know I liked the look early, and promoted the hell out of it. As the conductor/driver/engineer of this train, I must warn that derailment now looks imminent. Brace yourselves. No way. The 18z never picks up the trend first. I'm shoveling coal into the belly of this hunk of metal until the end. It starts the turn out of the tunnel for us tomorrow with the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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