BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: All of the above. Sorry to say. Pattern hasn't worked all year. This Sunday deal was a little more painful having the cold air in place for March. and we never go from 12 inches to 8 or something reasonable...its been more like 12 inches to what storm in like 2 runs from the 6-5 day mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not happy with the developments either but we should hold on to see what happens next week. It's often as the pattern relaxes something comes about for us not as it's setting in. Better chances of seeing Jim Cantore grow a full head of hair than a winter storm in our neck of the woods this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Also the recency bias is a bummer when the euro sucks but the gfs was really close to a big deal Tuesday and the ggem and U.K. Both looked good. If we had ended with those we probably would feel better right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I must ask, does it physically make sense for a weak system to be suppressed with so many neutral teleconnections? Could the lack of blocking be why guidance shows such a weaker system trending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Better chances of seeing Jim Cantore grow a full head of hair than a winter storm in our neck of the woods this season. I think the disappointment of losing Sunday is hard to see past but the setup for Tuesday is still decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Also the recency bias is a bummer when the euro sucks but the gfs was really close to a big deal Tuesday and the ggem and U.K. Both looked good. If we had ended with those we probably would feel better right now. Cold air push is being simulated too strong for a non phased low to make much northward movement and or deepening. It will follow the arctic front which will likely be well to our south by that time. Too much suppression leads to a southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Been a very frustrating winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, Amped said: I like the trend with the second storm. A further south track with more HP to the north means Richmond has a shot at something other than rain and wind. fixed and I'm not LOLing. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just wow. The story of this horrid winter unfortunately. I need to pray for the Friday thing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Just wow. The story of this horrid winter unfortunately. I need to pray for the Friday thing at this point. might as well...not going to mess up Sunday thing...that is a vort strength issue...cant do much about that...I will get neither...and I thought I was sitting pretty sort of in the middle...it is kind of funny I guess how this happens like every time where we lose virtual snowfall. It is Tuesday however. I suppose...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 At least DT gets the shaft... not that I want him to get screwed... I just think his FB page is more entertaining when Richmond Fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I must ask, does it physically make sense for a weak system to be suppressed with so many neutral teleconnections? Could the lack of blocking be why guidance shows such a weaker system trending? There is plenty of atmospheric blocking. Most persistently in the northeastern Pacific with the big omega block. There is a blocking ridge developing over GL and it will last maybe 4-5 days then break down according to latest guidance. So its pretty short lived. You should probably spend less time looking at teleconnection graphs and more time looking at 500 mb height maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, PDIII said: At least DT gets the shaft... not that I want him to get screwed... I just think his FB page is more entertaining when Richmond Fails. Good Lord. From NW GA to off the GA/FL coast....in 12 hours. Need to fix snyd comment above to congrats Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Been a very frustrating winter. Agreed , maybe we put too much faith in the models , all of them. Every year that goes by we expect to lock in a MECS forecase sooner and sooner from long leads. That might happen in certain winters, but not this one for sure, and the last two winters minus the Blizzard have shared in model dissapointment. Maybe the Hemispheric players, the Oceans and the QBO, etc .play a big part in having a higher model accuracy. For example maybe models forecast blocking better in an East based QBO , or when there is a El Nnino vs a La Nina. So many variables like a feather in the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Better chances of seeing Jim Cantore grow a full head of hair than a winter storm in our neck of the woods this season. hey @WxWatcher007we got a live one here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Cold air push is being simulated too strong for a non phased low to make much northward movement and or deepening. It will follow the arctic front which will likely be well to our south by that time. Too much suppression leads to a southern slider. I was talking about the threat after that next week. The one the ggem and U.K. met and many of the ensembles seem to be keying on. I've mostly given up on Sunday. I'm looking at the potential behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 C/P from WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1111 AM EST TUE MAR 07 2017 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 10 2017 - 12Z TUE MAR 14 2017 ...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY FLAT/ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT RIDGING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST...HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE GREAT LAKES AND WHETHER OR NOT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE SPECIFICS WITH EACH FEATURE. A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE DURING THE WEEKEND. SUPPORTING ENERGY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AROUND THE START OF THE PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN HEAD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH. THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS ENERGY AND THE FACT IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT BELOW AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME. THIS IS REFLECTED BY CURRENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS MEANINGFUL RUN TO RUN TRENDS WITH THE LATITUDE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. LATEST TRENDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED/SOUTHERN TRACK. HOWEVER THE FACT THAT THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HEADING INTO A MEAN TROUGH KEEPS THE DOOR OPEN FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND REVERSAL OF THE TREND. THUS AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST BEGAN WITH AN INITIAL COMBINATION OF THE THE 00Z ECWMF/GFS/CMC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST AND THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 A little earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: C/P from WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1111 AM EST TUE MAR 07 2017 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 10 2017 - 12Z TUE MAR 14 2017 ...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY FLAT/ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT RIDGING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST...HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE GREAT LAKES AND WHETHER OR NOT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE SPECIFICS WITH EACH FEATURE. A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE DURING THE WEEKEND. SUPPORTING ENERGY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AROUND THE START OF THE PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN HEAD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH. THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS ENERGY AND THE FACT IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT BELOW AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME. THIS IS REFLECTED BY CURRENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS MEANINGFUL RUN TO RUN TRENDS WITH THE LATITUDE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. LATEST TRENDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED/SOUTHERN TRACK. HOWEVER THE FACT THAT THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HEADING INTO A MEAN TROUGH KEEPS THE DOOR OPEN FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND REVERSAL OF THE TREND. THUS AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST BEGAN WITH AN INITIAL COMBINATION OF THE THE 00Z ECWMF/GFS/CMC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST AND THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. Yeah that was written before the 12z Model Suite came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I was talking about the threat after that next week. The one the ggem and U.K. met and many of the ensembles seem to be keying on. I've mostly given up on Sunday. I'm looking at the potential behind it. There is no threat week after next. It's over. 100% confidence. I appreciate your posts. Always respect what you have to say, but all year there has been medium to long range potential which ends up being a Plains, New England or a west coast storm. Progressive pattern with northern track which favors La Niña pattern. Models will only retract when the event draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 We are also getting into mid to late March. Sun angle issues, longer days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: There is no threat week after next. It's over. 100% confidence. I appreciate your posts. Always respect what you have to say, but all year there has been medium to long range potential which ends up being a Plains, New England or a west coast storm. Progressive pattern with northern track which favors La Niña pattern. Models will only retract when the event draws closer. Thank You. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Euro ens made a sharp move towards no dice on Sun. Pretty lame for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: There is no threat week after next. It's over. 100% confidence. I appreciate your posts. Always respect what you have to say, but all year there has been medium to long range potential which ends up being a Plains, New England or a west coast storm. Progressive pattern with northern track which favors La Niña pattern. Models will only retract when the event draws closer. I'm still not sure we're on the same page. Not week after next. The threat that's like one day behind the Sunday mess and one of the reasons I think the Sunday system isn't amplifying more. Most of the models are trending towards a more amolified solution Tuesday. This threat... it's on the ggem, unmet, JMA, Navgem, and it was close on the gfs too. Only guidance that wasn't that interested was the euro. I'm disappointed in Sunday's fail but the Tuesday threat is on enough guidance to not slam the door yet imo. It's only 1-2 days later not a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: There is no threat week after next. It's over. 100% confidence. I appreciate your posts. Always respect what you have to say, but all year there has been medium to long range potential which ends up being a Plains, New England or a west coast storm. Progressive pattern with northern track which favors La Niña pattern. Models will only retract when the event draws closer. One last thing, the models started picking up on the Sunday trend 72 hours ago. They were a New England storm before that. For a hot second they looked good here but we were only a pit stop on the way to the final solution. Fell for that same crap in the opposite direction in 2001 only it was 24 hours before not 5 days so models are improving. But we're into the range where the trends were happening with Sunday for the Tuesday storm and the trends this time are in the right direction. That said I doubt it happens. Too complicated. But I think it has a chance. Don't take this the wrong way I love your posts and your probably right I'm just willing to leave the door open a crack. Part of that's because this is a very different pattern then we have had all winter. It is a decent pattern just a shame it's coming at the end of our window for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens made a sharp move towards no dice on Sun. Pretty lame for anyone. Sunday is DEAD. Seeing the ggem U.K. And euro, which have been handling things better btw, totally squashed ended that in my mind. Gfs is teasing us but it's all by itself and we know how that goes. My eggs are all in the Tuesday basket now. Hopefully EPS has some hits there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Sunday is DEAD. Seeing the ggem U.K. And euro, which have been handling things better btw, totally squashed ended that in my mind. Gfs is teasing us but it's all by itself and we know how that goes. My eggs are all in the Tuesday basket now. Hopefully EPS has some hits there. If we don't score something...speaking of dead...zombies might start cliff diving into a wide open ravine. Now THAT could make for award wining cinema. Lol. Fingers crossed for Tuesday at this point. Shame to punt Sunday, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sunday is DEAD. Seeing the ggem U.K. And euro, which have been handling things better btw, totally squashed ended that in my mind. Gfs is teasing us but it's all by itself and we know how that goes. My eggs are all in the Tuesday basket now. Hopefully EPS has some hits there. Score one for the Canucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Congrats to the Caps on winning the Stanley Cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I understand the swing of emotions and feelings, but one good model run and we'll be sucked back in by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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