Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Thought the LWX discussion from this morning, sums it up best:

 

The southward trend in the guidance has not stopped with
the latest 00z runs...and with the strong high to our north and
confluent flow to our north this does support a farther
southward track. Also...these two shortwaves will be weak to
begin with so that enhances the chance for a farther southward
track. Therefore...it appears that there is a slightly higher
chance for significant precipitation amounts to remain to our
south but confidence remains very low at this time. Keep in mind
that the systems that potentially would be impacting the area
are way out in the Pacific Ocean. Guidance should get a better
handling over the next few days as they approach the western
CONUS. Will continue to mention the threat for accumulating snow
this weekend in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nobody likes the euro. Not DT. Not our SE folks. Nobody. It's a pansy ass weak little disturbance now. 

recall how it crushed that clipper around 7-10 days ago that was originally giving NE a mod event

the models have all done terribly in the medium and long ranges this year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

problem with the euro for Tuesday is its weak with the southern system behind also so the northern stream looks to be dominant, so it might have trouble amplifying something under us.  Euro looks like a lose lose right now.  But it is trending the same way as the others just not as fast as the GGEM and UKMET it seems. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

problem with the euro for Tuesday is its weak with the southern system behind also so the northern stream looks to be dominant, so it might have trouble amplifying something under us.  Euro looks like a lose lose right now.  But it is trending the same way as the others just not as fast as the GGEM and UKMET it seems. 

 

The problem across the board is everything is weak as hell from the get go. We could collectively sneeze and cause more vorticity in the atmosphere than what the euro just showed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

 

The problem across the board is everything is weak as hell from the get go. We could collectively sneeze and cause more vorticity in the atmosphere than what the euro just showed. 

clearly the GGEM is handling this pattern the best right now. It never ever liked the sunday event and its had the coastal for a few days now....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ji said:

clearly the GGEM is handling this pattern the best right now. It never ever liked the sunday event and its had the coastal for a few days now....

After looking at the euro I'm still having a hard time deciding if I like the Sunday or Tuesday storm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

The problem across the board is everything is weak as hell from the get go. We could collectively sneeze and cause more vorticity in the atmosphere than what the euro just showed. 

Have to hope something comes in stronger. But that's been a way we failed at times. Get a decent pattern then suddenly the wave train goes dead and everything shears out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

The problem across the board is everything is weak as hell from the get go. We could collectively sneeze and cause more vorticity in the atmosphere than what the euro just showed. 

and yet before we had a PV to play with, we saw 980 L's cuttin through the midwest like poop through a goose....all winter long, and now this.

SMH

Nut

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

The problem across the board is everything is weak as hell from the get go. We could collectively sneeze and cause more vorticity in the atmosphere than what the euro just showed. 

Perhaps coordinate all our fans in a counter-clockwise arrangement and hit the "high" buttons all at the same time.  I don't that's ever been tried on a large scale.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

An awful lot of certainty in the mood here for a system that is 5 days out.

I'm sure nothing will change.

True. The "Sunday Storm" still has time to turn from a low pressure into a high pressure system and find its way to Cuba or South America.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Have to hope something comes in stronger. But that's been a way we failed at times. Get a decent pattern then suddenly the wave train goes dead and everything shears out. 

Thats pretty much it. With the h5 look we have from Sun to about mid next week, something should pop. If everything comes in weak and dampens to nothing and we waste this period, I am going to lose interest really quick. I still have a feeling the models have not offered up the final outcome though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

After looking at the euro I'm still having a hard time deciding if I like the Sunday or Tuesday storm

What Sunday storm?  The gfs is the only guidance that even has a storm and it's trending towards nothing too. I think Tuesday might be the only option. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

All of the above. Sorry to say. Pattern hasn't worked all year.

I'm not happy with the developments either but we should hold on to see what happens next week. It's often as the pattern relaxes something comes about for us not as it's setting in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...