showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: There have been a few runs, I think one CMC a couple days ago even, and several individual ensemble members of the EPS and GEFS that do that. I see it as one of the MANY options in a volatile setup. Like I said a few hours ago, my frustration right now is I like to have a clear picture of how the pattern is going to evolve. Usually I do. That doesnt mean I know the specifics of exactly where a storm will be and all but usually by 4-5 days away I have a decent handle on what the evolution will be and how things will go in a macro sense. I kind of see the possible permutations here but they are wildly unpredictable because of the moving parts involved. The overall setup I see is stable but the moving parts within it create so many options. Once the 50/50 sets up with the blocking up top we have at LEAST a 5-6 day window. The GEFS and EPS want to reload and develop a second window around day 13-16, the GEFS actually has a REALLY strong storm signal there, but lets just focus on whats in front of us right now, since March 20-25 it CAN snow but its getting very difficult by then. Within this window roughly Friday to next Wednesday we know the initial wave is battling warm conditions in front and is unlikely so lets skip that. Then the problem becomes so many parts involved in an intricate dance. The energy ejecting for the Sunday system is coming out weaker because the trough seems to want to be focusing on a possible major amplification right behind it. The trend towards less in front and more in back is undeniable. Then within that are how the two systems interact with one another. Does the first get out in front and amplify on its own. How does that effect whats behind. Do the two interact, as some runs slow the first so much it initially strings it out but then leaves enough behind to phase with the trough diving in behind and bomb up the coast. Does the first take too much energy off and the second struggles. This is complicated. I hate complicated. But I am comfortable to admit when I dont know and I dont know what is going to happen. i dont think anyone can, this is too complex of a setup with too many moving parts, but some feel the need to pretend they "know" how its going to evolve. I don't like to BS. I can guess.... and my honest guess is this is such a loaded pattern something will come of it. I dont know how exactly that something will impact our specific location with snow. But this has the feel of the type of pattern where something is just waiting to pop. The models will struggle with which peice of energy to do it with but in the end barring really bad luck I think something will develop that gives us a good shot. Of course really bad luck seems to be our MO lately so....I wont say I am not nervous, but annoyed by a complex setup that I can't read well is more accurate to describe my mood. Its interesting though thats for sure and as long as we get a payoff I will probably see it as fun looking back on it. Pretty much mirrors my thoughts as well, some of which I posted earlier. One thing I want to point out though. I have been working under the assumption that less earlier (weak sheared out storm to the south on Sunday) probably means that we will see more later (Tuesday Event). But as I see the shortwave on the GFS op once again come in even more washed out as it hits the coast I wonder if we might run into an issue if it is too weak. That shortwave (Sundays storm) is the the future 50/50 that we are relying on for our potential Tuesday event. If that feature all but washes out do we even end up with any storm of note to become our 50/50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gun to your head. Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both. I'd go for Tuesday. I like what the GGEM is showing, just wish it was a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gun to your head. Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both. Give up on Sunday - we try for both we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gun to your head. Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both. Yes. Maybe Sunday quickly turns around and is a much more potent storm, but at this point in the season, I'm searching for the big one, something historic. Tuesday seems like the much better bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Go for Tuesday. At least then we - maybe - get a day off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don't even know what we're rooting for anymore. Thank you. Every run seems to change which storm is best and which one is hurting some other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Amped said: I like Ukmet the best the best. Probably snowing at 144 and the low is still in Florida. That UK 144 is loaded for sure. I like the H5 even better then the GGEM honestly. Dangerous to project without surface info or anything beyond 144 but that probably ends well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 You guys are way more adventurous than I thought. I'm a terrible gambler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gun to your head. Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both. I would gamble and leave as is. Miller A's are too complicated...phasing, location, warm air intrusions. 1-2 inches of cold smoke is worth it to me. I have had 1.5 inches to date so anything more than that is victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gun to your head. Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both. Can I wait till after the EURO comes out or is the gun loaded with the hammer back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I would gamble and leave as is. Miller A's are too complicated...phasing, location, warm air intrusions. 1-2 inches of cold smoke is worth it to me. I have had 1.5 inches to date so anything more than that is victory. Getting 1-2 inches of cold smoke probably wouldn't be very difficult while also still getting the Tuesday storm. 1-2 inches of cold smoke seems like a decent bet unless the thing gets super suppressed, especially for you Nova/DC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: Can I wait till after the EURO comes out or is the gun loaded with the hammer back? You can peek at the Euro first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gun to your head. Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both. I guess it doesn't matter cause its gonna do what its gonna do. But we are all rooting for snow. The problem is figuring out what scenario gives us the best chance of snow. Right now we are kind of stuck half way in between honestly. We have the idea of the front runner Sunday, which with a little more room and amplitude could get it done by itself in a nice simple west to east overrunning along the baroclinic boundary wave. Or we have the idea of that washing out and leaving energy behind to phase and bomb up the coast with the energy that is digging in behind it. The front runner Sunday is the simpler idea. The tuesday idea has the most upside potential but also more bust potential. But to add to that mix right now were kinda half way in between. But the trends are definitely towards the idea of the coastal bomb tuesday and against the Sunday thing and the correlation between those two is undeniable. So again, I am going to root for snow and I dont care how it happens. If the lord almighty wants to take a snow sh*t on top of my house to get it done whatever. At this point I just want snow and I dont care if its from the first second third or some yet to be determined threat. But if your trying to figure out which is our best bet, probably its becoming the Tuesday thing at this point. Just looking at guidance now in a vacuum it might seem 50/50 between Sunday and Tuesday but we have to factor trends into the equation and that tilts it in favor of the big coastal idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You guys are way more adventurous than I thought. I'm a terrible gambler. I went all in and borrowed some up in the Central Pa thread for storms 1 and 2.... so i have nothing to offer. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I guess it doesn't matter cause its gonna do what its gonna do. But we are all rooting for snow. The problem is figuring out what scenario gives us the best chance of snow. Right now we are kind of stuck half way in between honestly. We have the idea of the front runner Sunday, which with a little more room and amplitude could get it done by itself in a nice simple west to east overrunning along the baroclinic boundary wave. Or we have the idea of that washing out and leaving energy behind to phase and bomb up the coast with the energy that is digging in behind it. The front runner Sunday is the simpler idea. The tuesday idea has the most upside potential but also more bust potential. But to add to that mix right now were kinda half way in between. But the trends are definitely towards the idea of the coastal bomb tuesday and against the Sunday thing and the correlation between those two is undeniable. So again, I am going to root for snow and I dont care how it happens. If the lord almighty wants to take a snow sh*t on top of my house to get it done whatever. At this point I just want snow and I dont care if its from the first second third or some yet to be determined threat. But if your trying to figure out which is our best bet, probably its becoming the Tuesday thing at this point. Just looking at guidance now in a vacuum it might seem 50/50 between Sunday and Tuesday but we have to factor trends into the equation and that tilts it in favor of the big coastal idea. Next Tuesday and we're back to seven days again and we all know how well the models have been this year at that range. I'm not waiting for the EURO. I pick Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Next Tuesday and we're back to seven days again and we all know how well the models have been this year at that range. I'm not waiting for the EURO. I pick Sunday. Bingo... on to the next 7 day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Euro came in stronger with the Friday event. Northern tier counties around the PA line now show 2+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 12z Euro even farther suppressed than 0z for Sun-Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 On to Tuesday for the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I meant to say Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Low pressure off the FLA/GA coast. I guess we have to punt Sunday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It does appear, not that it matters for us necessarily, that the Friday event is becoming more clear. Looks like 2-4 inches just north of Mason/Dixon line with maybe some northern MD counties getting in on a little action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Next Tuesday and we're back to seven days again and we all know how well the models have been this year at that range. I'm not waiting for the EURO. I pick Sunday. I am not in favor of delaying either but just because Sunday is closer does not make it the better threat unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Looks like we're back to Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 At this rate, how long is it until there's nothing on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Surface low in Jax and 1030mb overhead is what we want, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: At this rate, how long is it until there's nothing on Sunday? You don't have to wait at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: Surface low in Jax and 1030mb overhead is what we want, right? Mid 30s on Sunday? No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Maybe we get nothing from any of them. Always an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The sunday vort just keeps getting weaker across guidance. What a wimp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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