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March med-long range disco thread 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That was a pretty big change @ h5 for tues-wed. Ensembles might be onto something there. I hate having to look beyond 2 freekin potential events to get there but the 3rd event has as much upside as anything else right now. 

Yea I am NOT happy about punting a legit threat in March but its hard to ignore the direction things are going.  We might not be there yet, but at some point if things don't start to recover Tuesday becomes the better option.  As you said in your other post, there isnt a LOT keeping Sunday from a better fate, its mostly just a weak vort problem.  Perhaps that trend reverses as the energy gets closer.  But I said we don't want this trending all the way down to a NC storm.  Hanging out a little south all week would be fine but the north trend thing isnt as pronounced as in years past.  Its still a thing but more typically a 50 or 75 mile north shift the last 48 hours NOT 250 miles like years ago.  Getting a Richmond storm to trend back is a LOT easier then  Raleigh storm.  If todays guidance settles on a NC solution we better see a north move soon like tonight or tomorrow at the latest or its time to give this one up.  The next one seems to have more room to breath in the pattern so to speak and perhaps in the end is the real threat.  Its been trending that way for a while now. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The interesting thing about the CMC is it uses ridging in front of the trailing wave to allow the first wave to gain latitude before the phase. I honestly never even considered that option. 

There have been a few runs, I think one CMC a couple days ago even, and several individual ensemble members of the EPS and GEFS that do that.  I see it as one of the MANY options in a volatile setup.  Like I said a few hours ago, my frustration right now is I like to have a clear picture of how the pattern is going to evolve.  Usually I do.  That doesnt mean I know the specifics of exactly where a storm will be and all but usually by 4-5 days away I have a decent handle on what the evolution will be and how things will go in a macro sense.  I kind of see the possible permutations here but they are wildly unpredictable because of the moving parts involved. 

The overall setup I see is stable but the moving parts within it create so many options.  Once the 50/50 sets up with the blocking up top we have at LEAST a 5-6 day window.  The GEFS and EPS want to reload and develop a second window around day 13-16, the GEFS actually has a REALLY strong storm signal there, but lets just focus on whats in front of us right now, since March 20-25 it CAN snow but its getting very difficult by then. 

Within this window roughly Friday to next Wednesday we know the initial wave is battling warm conditions in front and is unlikely so lets skip that.  Then the problem becomes so many parts involved in an intricate dance.  The energy ejecting for the Sunday system is coming out weaker because the trough seems to want to be focusing on a possible major amplification right behind it.  The trend towards less in front and more in back is undeniable.  Then within that are how the two systems interact with one another.  Does the first get out in front and amplify on its own.  How does that effect whats behind.  Do the two interact, as some runs slow the first so much it initially strings it out but then leaves enough behind to phase with the trough diving in behind and bomb up the coast.  Does the first take too much energy off and the second struggles.  This is complicated.  I hate complicated.  But I am comfortable to admit when I dont know and I dont know what is going to happen.  i dont think anyone can, this is too complex of a setup with too many moving parts, but some feel the need to pretend they "know" how its going to evolve. I don't like to BS.

  I can guess.... and my honest guess is this is such a loaded pattern something will come of it.  I dont know how exactly that something will impact our specific location with snow.  But this has the feel of the type of pattern where something is just waiting to pop.  The models will struggle with which peice of energy to do it with but in the end barring really bad luck I think something will develop that gives us a good shot.  Of course really bad luck seems to be our MO lately so....I wont say I am not nervous, but annoyed by a complex setup that I can't read well is more accurate to describe my mood.  Its interesting though thats for sure and as long as we get a payoff I will probably see it as fun looking back on it. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There have been a few runs, I think one CMC a couple days ago even, and several individual ensemble members of the EPS and GEFS that do that.  I see it as one of the MANY options in a volatile setup.  Like I said a few hours ago, my frustration right now is I like to have a clear picture of how the pattern is going to evolve.  Usually I do.  That doesnt mean I know the specifics of exactly where a storm will be and all but usually by 4-5 days away I have a decent handle on what the evolution will be and how things will go in a macro sense.  I kind of see the possible permutations here but they are wildly unpredictable because of the moving parts involved. 

The overall setup I see is stable but the moving parts within it create so many options.  Once the 50/50 sets up with the blocking up top we have at LEAST a 5-6 day window.  The GEFS and EPS want to reload and develop a second window around day 13-16, the GEFS actually has a REALLY strong storm signal there, but lets just focus on whats in front of us right now, since March 20-25 it CAN snow but its getting very difficult by then. 

Within this window roughly Friday to next Wednesday we know the initial wave is battling warm conditions in front and is unlikely so lets skip that.  Then the problem becomes so many parts involved in an intricate dance.  The energy ejecting for the Sunday system is coming out weaker because the trough seems to want to be focusing on a possible major amplification right behind it.  The trend towards less in front and more in back is undeniable.  Then within that are how the two systems interact with one another.  Does the first get out in front and amplify on its own.  How does that effect whats behind.  Do the two interact, as some runs slow the first so much it initially strings it out but then leaves enough behind to phase with the trough diving in behind and bomb up the coast.  Does the first take too much energy off and the second struggles.  This is complicated.  I hate complicated.  But I am comfortable to admit when I dont know and I dont know what is going to happen.  i dont think anyone can, this is too complex of a setup with too many moving parts, but some feel the need to pretend they "know" how its going to evolve. I don't like to BS.

  I can guess.... and my honest guess is this is such a loaded pattern something will come of it.  I dont know how exactly that something will impact our specific location with snow.  But this has the feel of the type of pattern where something is just waiting to pop.  The models will struggle with which peice of energy to do it with but in the end barring really bad luck I think something will develop that gives us a good shot.  Of course really bad luck seems to be our MO lately so....I wont say I am not nervous, but annoyed by a complex setup that I can't read well is more accurate to describe my mood.  Its interesting though thats for sure and as long as we get a payoff I will probably see it as fun looking back on it. 

Many thanks for your honest thorough analysis (helps me cut through all the noise in here, lol). We can only hope...when there's no way to tell...we just gotta wait (and try to keep the inherent pessimism of this winter at bay....very difficult, lol)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snjókoma said:

12z GEFS is a nice run. 4" mean in DC for the Sunday-Monday thing. Max of 6" just south of Richmond. 

It's another south trend though. I don't see it as a nice run because it's another ensemble run favoring a southern solution. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Gun to your head.  Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both.  

give up on sunday....its not the same type of system from 2 days ago

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

one area where this winter hasn't sucked is in the ability to get very quick very cold shots.  we had one in december that felt like siberia for a day or two and since then we've definitely had a few days where it's been bitter cold (briefly).  that makes me think if we time things right we'll be good.  also, the stickage thing...i don't care what month it is, if the temps are in the 20s/daytime it can stick on pavement.  if it's around 30, then it gets dicey where you'll need the rates esp in the cities.  we don't want to wait too much longer for snow, though.  even in the legendary 2013/14 winter, the last legit snow was on march 17 and then i think we had one more on the 25th that layed a couple of inches, but really didn't stick to pavement.  probably need something in the next week or two.  i'm in.  would be nice to get one decent secs/mecs before the equinox.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Gun to your head.  Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both.  

Sunday can easily still be a good storm for us. It's not complicated. It's just become weaker so suppression is winning. Change that a little and we probably have a respectable event. 

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Gun to your head.  Would you give up Sunday for the chance to make Tuesday a ton better. Or would you gamble and leave things the way they are now and risk losing both.  

the Great Lakes Low (on CMC) on the Tuesday thing brings me much anxiety.  But overall Tuesday looks like a more dynamic system.  so I vote for Tuesday.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PDIII said:

the Great Lakes Low (on CMC) on the Tuesday thing brings me much anxiety.  But overall Tuesday looks like a more dynamic system.  so I vote for Tuesday.

Our storms are musts for weekends. B)

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Sunday can easily still be a good storm for us. It's not complicated. It's just become weaker so suppression is winning. Change that a little and we probably have a respectable event. 

I agree. The later we wait for the "next" storm in March; the worse our chances. Now if we could just see a cessation of the south movement on the EURO.

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