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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Could be wrong, looks like our 50/50 is a touch farther north this run.

I don' think that matters as much as the vort looking like a little wimp. If it's going to punch into the suppressed flow it needs some biceps. And it doesn't have them. 

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Easy way to see how suppressive the flow will be is to look at the 500mb heights in our region before the storm arrives. Good runs had the 540 line through north central VA. 12z has it in NC. Combined with a weaker vort and it's craptacular.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

PNA ridge and the PV look better than past runs. The vort is also slower which is a good thing.

Baby steps

The vort is weaker and that probably matters more than the exact position of the PV. If it isn't strong enough, it can't cut its way north enough. Congrats Raleigh.

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Just now, PennQuakerGirl said:

Is it unusual for North Carolina to see this kind of weather in March? 

Definitely. It's happened a few times before in March (like 1980), but it takes a strong block and/or PV digging far enough south for this to happen. Their average high is probably in the 60s by now, so this is going to be a shock to them.

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