Wxhoov Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:33 PM, Kmlwx said: Can't see widespread amounts like that unless we get a stall or something. MIRACLE MAYBE Expand I could see a widespread 12" being very possible! If everything plays out as planned actually i think its likely nw of i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:33 PM, Kmlwx said: Can't see widespread amounts like that unless we get a stall or something. MIRACLE MAYBE Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:29 PM, WxUSAF said: I can just look at the ensemble member MSLP plot on TT and see that a few GEFS members are going to be straight up pr0n. Expand I was thinking that myself. That's a great look right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:33 PM, Kmlwx said: Can't see widespread amounts like that unless we get a stall or something. MIRACLE MAYBE Expand One of the features that the GFS is showing is an upper level disturbance bowling through after the initial slug of moisture from the developing low off the coast. If that upper level disturbance is strong enough.. it will help to fill in the dry slot and we could see a 12+ hour period of moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Nice write up from Jason and Wes. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/09/winter-storm-possible-monday-night-and-tuesday-but-very-difficult-forecast/?utm_term=.dcede2a426de Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Wow... just one member (e16) doesn't get measurable snow on the ground in DC. 15 members over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 2:10 PM, Fozz said: I'm not saying it can't happen, all I'm saying is that with this much uncertainty and with still being 5 days away, the chance of this becoming a big storm is less than 50%. Maybe I should've worded it better. I'm definitely not cancelling this like BaltWxguy, so no worries Expand On 3/9/2017 at 2:11 PM, mappy said: All good buddy! Expand Changed my mind after the 12z runs.... I feel much more confident now about a big storm. Not a sure thing, but I love the way things are trending now that we're inside 5 days. The H5 depiction on the GFS really stood out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Is there such a thing as a GEFS Bufkit? I'd like to figure out what the 'loaded' mean is among members that get more than 1" to DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This is what I am talking about. This is 00z a full 24 hours after first flakes... I am hoping this guy gives another 6 inches on top whatever we have on the ground at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That trailing upper level low likely won't give much more than instability snows in the 1-2" dept. The atmosphere already unleashed the mid-levels prior to that panel. There's only so much it can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Historically in DC, the "ideal" for vort passes at 500mb is the Kentucky/Virginia/West Virginia state line. Today's 12z GFS is very close to that, needs to be just a bit further south. If the Euro looks even similar to the 12z GFS, then we could be in for something very special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:42 PM, caviman2201 said: Wow... just one member (e16) doesn't get measurable snow on the ground in DC. 15 members over 6" Expand Please tell me I am not one of the ones getting over 6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:44 PM, Fozz said: Changed my mind after the 12z runs.... I feel much more confident now about a big storm. Not a sure thing, but I love the way things are trending now that we're inside 5 days. The H5 depiction on the GFS really stood out for me. Expand I've been out of the loop all morning. Briefly checked early. Looks good, if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:47 PM, Bob Chill said: That trailing upper level low likely won't give much more than instability snows in the 1-2" dept. The atmosphere already unleashed the mid-levels prior to that panel. There's only so much it can do. Expand I have seen it happen in the past though. as soon as you think you are getting dry-slotted.. you get that fill in effect from the west... You watch it spin through on the radar... What do you mean be 'Unleashed the mid levels"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:15 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Have any of you geniuses figured out how an extra hour of sun is going to affect this storm? Yeah. Expand It's going to torch the 4" soil temps. Storm cancel. Too bad too, because I was really looking forward to my .2" QPF snow-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:50 PM, PDIII said: I have seen it happen in the past though. as soon as you think you are getting dry-slotted.. you get that fill in effect from the west... You watch it spin through on the radar... What do you mean be 'Unleashed the mid levels"? Expand The main event takes a lot out of the atmosphere. The only times a trailing upper level low produces well (like Jan 2010 here or Feb 2014 down in SW VA) is when they are strong to begin with. As depicted on the GFS it's a pretty weak ULL. It could "keep things going" but big precip totals are very unlikely at best. The mid level energy is far off in the distance by this time. It would be vigorous snowshowers splattered around and not a shield of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 January 2010 was great with the upper level low coming in and putting down another 4-6 for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:57 PM, osfan24 said: January 2010 was great with the upper level low coming in and putting down another 4-6 for everyone. Expand Yes it was. It was also a beast of a bowling ball approaching from the SW. The one the gfs shows is a little duck pin bowling ball sweeping through from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's good to be in the bullseye snow axis at a 5-6 day lead time right? I mean, what could possibly go wrong for our subforums? Pretty much a lock with only room for marked improvements at this point yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 6:01 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: It's good to be in the bullseye snow axis at a 5-6 day lead time right? I mean, what could possibly go wrong for our subforums? Pretty much a lock with only room for marked improvements at this point yes? Expand I dont know... we have never been in this territory this year... Having a storm within the 5ish day window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This thread is a great distraction to the embarrassing debacle that the Washington Redskins are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 When does Ashton Kutcher pop out from the middle of one of these model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 What does the Euro say about tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 6:05 PM, smokeybandit said: When does Ashton Kutcher pop out from the middle of one of these model runs? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:54 PM, Bob Chill said: The main event takes a lot out of the atmosphere. The only times a trailing upper level low produces well (like Jan 2010 here or Feb 2014 down in SW VA) is when they are strong to begin with. As depicted on the GFS it's a pretty weak ULL. It could "keep things going" but big precip totals are very unlikely at best. The mid level energy is far off in the distance by this time. It would be vigorous snowshowers splattered around and not a shield of precip. Expand are you talking about Jan 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I think you guys are talking about Jan 2011 with the upper level low snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 6:10 PM, PDIII said: are you talking about Jan 2011? Expand Yes, typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 6:10 PM, PDIII said: Jan 2010 is in my top 5. It snowed really fooking for about 4 hours. Expand Jan 2010, Jan 2016 and Jan 1996 are probably my top 3. Feb 2003, Feb 2010, Dec 2009 are next. And then I'd probably toss in Jan 2000, Jan 2011 and Feb 2014 I think it was. I don't remember 93 well enough to include unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 6:11 PM, Bob Chill said: Yes, typo. Expand okay cool. Yeah thats one of my top 5 events. It killed it for like 4 hours in Western balitmore county... just poring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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