packfan98 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 What a map for mid March from the GFS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Well damn...CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:19 PM, stormtracker said: Well damn...CMC Expand It may not be as juiced as the gfs verbatim but it's a MUCH safer evolution for us. It would come in like a wall and puke powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Damn zombie apocalypse of the winter dead coming get out quick for bread&milk guns and sharp sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 thats the nicest map I've seen all year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Bulleit Bourbon for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:20 PM, Bob Chill said: It may not be as juiced as the gfs verbatim but it's a MUCH safer evolution for us. It would come in like a wall and puke powder. Expand I'm like you...I'll take either one, but I'd feel a lot better with the CMC's depiction on how it got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:20 PM, Bob Chill said: It may not be as juiced as the gfs verbatim but it's a MUCH safer evolution for us. It would come in like a wall and puke powder. Expand Bob, you feel better we have the GFS and the CMC both with a big storm? Or, do we await for the ensembles before getting carried away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Final GFS Kuchera: Non-Kuchera: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:05 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Not looking great at h102. Not digging as much on the northern end. Expand On 3/9/2017 at 4:22 PM, ers-wxman1 said: thats the nicest map I've seen all year! Expand On 3/9/2017 at 4:22 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Bulleit Bourbon for all Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I take back my previous post. CMC is juiced like Barry Bonds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:22 PM, stormtracker said: I'm like you...I'll take either one, but I'd feel a lot better with the CMC's depiction on how it got there. Expand I'll third this. That 120 panel is an absolute classic look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:23 PM, frd said: Bob, you feel better we have the GFS and the CMC both with a big storm? Or, do we await for the ensembles before getting carried away? Expand I would say yes to both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:23 PM, Bob Chill said: I take back my previous post. CMC is juiced like Barry Bonds Expand 120 B and W has us on the 25mm+ band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:23 PM, frd said: Bob, you feel better we have the GFS and the CMC both with a big storm? Or, do we await for the ensembles before getting carried away? Expand I won't feel better until I'm done shoveling. I'm not mad at 12z so far though. No doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:11 PM, Bob Chill said: The run is obviously a happy one but I'm not a fan of less digging in the NS. But if the southern energy is going to save the say then sobeit. If the NS digs deeper then the solution would be monsterous. If it trends more shallow...well...we won't discuss that option. Expand This is a "complicated" setup. There are lots of variables that all will effect each other and the outcome for us. The three big ones are the dig and strength of the northern stream vort, the strength of the STJ energy, and the phase. If we simplify things to those 3 what we want is 1. more dig from the northern stream 2. stronger STJ system 3. Faster cleaner phase So these 3 factors all will jump around a little bit and that impacts the final outcome. This run the NS vort was slightly less in our favor but was more then overcome by the southern stream being more amped up. You are right we don't want to see a trend wrong in that NS vort because if it keeps going that way eventually unless the STJ becomes completely dominant along with that trend it would hurt us. But it seems to have been a very minor change. Overall I don't necessarily think we need much improvement on the H5, if it holds steady, we could win with improvements in the STJ and Phase side of things. The H5 has looked pretty darn good to me for a while but its had this weird strung out surface solution and a slow face or a fujiwara type thing on most runs that prevents things from really dumping on us. If the STJ is more dominant and the focus on the system NOT the northern stream wave, and the phasing happens cleaner, we can do just fine with the H5 about where it is now. If those two factors do not trend our way then we would need improvements on the H5 to offset and compensate. Still a LOT of time to see where this is going, but I still feel like I hitched my train to the right track with this setup vs the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Can anyone post an accum map for the CMC? Tidbits is only out to 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm also not mad at trending bigger insider of 5 days. That's a first this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:25 PM, Bob Chill said: I won't feel better until I'm done shoveling. I'm not mad at 12z so far though. No doubt about that. Expand Excellent, thanks Bob. Loving 12z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:23 PM, Bob Chill said: I take back my previous post. CMC is juiced like Barry Bonds Expand Yeah, I ran the TT sim on the precip..it's a bomb for sure for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:25 PM, NovaTarHeel said: Can anyone post an accum map for the CMC? Tidbits is only out to 84 hours Expand Based on what's out so far on TT the snowmap is probably going to be ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:25 PM, NovaTarHeel said: Can anyone post an accum map for the CMC? Tidbits is only out to 84 hours Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:25 PM, psuhoffman said: This is a "complicated" setup. There are lots of variables that all will effect each other and the outcome for us. The three big ones are the dig and strength of the northern stream vort, the strength of the STJ energy, and the phase. If we simplify things to those 3 what we want is 1. more dig from the northern stream 2. stronger STJ system 3. Faster cleaner phase So these 3 factors all will jump around a little bit and that impacts the final outcome. This run the NS vort was slightly less in our favor but was more then overcome by the southern stream being more amped up. You are right we don't want to see a trend wrong in that NS vort because if it keeps going that way eventually unless the STJ becomes completely dominant along with that trend it would hurt us. But it seems to have been a very minor change. Overall I don't necessarily think we need much improvement on the H5, if it holds steady, we could win with improvements in the STJ and Phase side of things. The H5 has looked pretty darn good to me for a while but its had this weird strung out surface solution and a slow face or a fujiwara type thing on most runs that prevents things from really dumping on us. If the STJ is more dominant and the focus on the system NOT the northern stream wave, and the phasing happens cleaner, we can do just fine with the H5 about where it is now. If those two factors do not trend our way then we would need improvements on the H5 to offset and compensate. Still a LOT of time to see where this is going, but I still feel like I hitched my train to the right track with this setup vs the others. Expand I couldn't have said it better myself. Still lots of ways and time to screw this up and even whiff completely, but I like how it keeps trending better and I think there is a lot of room for improvement with potentially an earlier phase and capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:28 PM, supernovasky said: Expand Holy Moly talk about wiggle room. Drive 2-3 hours in any direction from DC and you find 10+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Hey guys, did I miss anything exciting on the 12z suite so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:22 PM, ers-wxman1 said: thats the nicest map I've seen all year! Expand Shame there is no chance at all it snows this year. Just messing with you, and we have a LOOOONG way to go, not celebrating until I am measuring and even then I might have to pinch myself a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:31 PM, DCTeacherman said: Holy Moly talk about wiggle room. Drive 2-3 hours in any direction from DC and you find 10+ inches of snow. Expand For CMC map can someone expand that south some toward Richmond plz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I am going to tune up the snowblower today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 4:23 PM, Bob Chill said: I take back my previous post. CMC is juiced like Barry Bonds Expand What you talking about, those HRs were legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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