Central PA - March 2017

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I'm with you. Temps already at 60 with a wave coming to give us snow in less than 24 hours? Hmmm, where did we see this before? Oh yeah, last month (Feb 8th/9th). 

Cold air push on models with a wave developing along the front is, in my experience, almost always overdone for SC PA. We burned half our QPF in last months storm on rain after hitting 60F. Granted, this cold air is far deeper and colder than last time, but still, very weary. 

The PM squalls look good. Lapse rates from surface to 700mb approaching 10C/km. Love me some 20k foot snow anvils! But you're right, they can be deadly for drivers. We've been hitting that home the last few events!

I like Tuesday's chances. Wouldn't take that much QPF in our area to put out plowable snows. Temps in the teens and 20s will mean quite the fluff factor 

Verbatim on the 12z's its fair to say we thump for a time, and that would help to overcome bad surface/ground temps.  It is a small window though, so as you suggest, an hour or 2 late, and.......meh.

Despite the outcome, the models are trolling us/me hard.  

Nut

[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Sunday's storm can really mess up Tuesdays fun, and w/ the oscillations of the past week, yeah skeptical is the word.  It is a more stable pattern..so we do have that in our favor, but its still a challenge w/ multiple pieces of energy and tight spacing.  Still a nice pattern to sit back and watch/dream.

Nut

And in a video this morning Joe Cioffi pointed out just that. He showed how if the Sunday storm is strong, it would flatten the flow behind it and storm #3 would end up farther off the coast. We need a weak storm #2 so that heights can build back up in the Atlantic prior to Tuesday and sharpen the trough.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

And in a video this morning Joe Cioffi pointed out just that. He showed how if the Sunday storm is strong, it would flatten the flow behind it and storm #3 would end up farther off the coast. We need a weak storm #2 so that heights can build back up in the Atlantic prior to Tuesday and sharpen the trough.

Bingo.  we want storm number #2 to become pulse #2.  Keep it south and weak, so that energy is available for Tuesday storm.  Not only would the flow flatten, but it robs available energy for the next vort in line (Tuesday storm).  

Nut

 

[MillvilleWx]

Well, the models are really coming in to line with the system tonight and tomorrow morning being a bit more robust than previously thought. The stronger system is in due part to the vigor of the energy advecting across the area for Friday with the lead vort coming in more robust, as well as the main PVA remaining very stout for Friday afternoon and evening. With the low developing slightly further south and high pressure quickly pressing in behind (1050mb out of Canada!!), the boundary should fly through the area with the cold air advection very quick to take over the region. Areas along I-80 have the benefit of seeing snow first due to the transition period occurring after precip onset, and with decent PVA running along the interstate. Snow totals have become pretty consistent around the Laurels and western half of I-80 with a slight downward gradient the further east you trek. Still, it's pretty much consistent with 5-10" across the area for the Laurel Highlands and areas like Johnstown and Clearfield over to State College. Increasing snow threat now for the southern half of the state with cold air advection a bit more hot and heavy for the region. It looks like precip field is lingering longer on the back edge as well, leading to snowfall time frame extending into the morning hours post sunrise, especially the further east you go. I got to say, this may lend quite the surprise, but I'm still not completely sold on some of the precip totals the models are throwing out, at least with respect to snow accumulations. 

Best guess would be for areas to the west I-81 in the Laurels up to I-80 and areas toward NW PA, 5-10" is a good bet with elevation areas perhaps really cashing in toward the high side of guidance. Areas to the east of State College longitude are still look ripe with a stripe of 4-8" possible over I-80 toward the eastern side of the state. 3-7" for areas between I-80 and the Turnpike to the east of I-81. South of the Turnpike, conditions look more favorable for 2-5" of snow with a gradient to the south to Rt. 30. Below Rt 30, seeing a general 1-4" of snow with typical areas above 700' being the benefactor with elevation and could sneak into the high side of accumulation. I may be low balling given the trends, but with warm temps today to start, ground may eat some of the accumulation in the very beginning, so wen slightly below for areas reaching into the 60's today. Still, a very nice threat with added bonus snow in the form of snow squalls possible given the intense PVA and steep low level lapse rates across the state. 

[Voyager]

Great post! Thanks!!!

 

[Itstrainingtime]

If my backyard receives more than 2" tonight and tomorrow morning, I will gladly tell each of you that I'm a moron. 

You just can't say that about me.

Trends are really good though. I want so badly to believe...

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Well, the models are really coming in to line with the system tonight and tomorrow morning being a bit more robust than previously thought. The stronger system is in due part to the vigor of the energy advecting across the area for Friday with the lead vort coming in more robust, as well as the main PVA remaining very stout for Friday afternoon and evening. With the low developing slightly further south and high pressure quickly pressing in behind (1050mb out of Canada!!), the boundary should fly through the area with the cold air advection very quick to take over the region. Areas along I-80 have the benefit of seeing snow first due to the transition period occurring after precip onset, and with decent PVA running along the interstate. Snow totals have become pretty consistent around the Laurels and western half of I-80 with a slight downward gradient the further east you trek. Still, it's pretty much consistent with 5-10" across the area for the Laurel Highlands and areas like Johnstown and Clearfield over to State College. Increasing snow threat now for the southern half of the state with cold air advection a bit more hot and heavy for the region. It looks like precip field is lingering longer on the back edge as well, leading to snowfall time frame extending into the morning hours post sunrise, especially the further east you go. I got to say, this may lend quite the surprise, but I'm still not completely sold on some of the precip totals the models are throwing out, at least with respect to snow accumulations. 

Best guess would be for areas to the west I-81 in the Laurels up to I-80 and areas toward NW PA, 5-10" is a good bet with elevation areas perhaps really cashing in toward the high side of guidance. Areas to the east of State College longitude are still look ripe with a stripe of 4-8" possible over I-80 toward the eastern side of the state. 3-7" for areas between I-80 and the Turnpike to the east of I-81. South of the Turnpike, conditions look more favorable for 2-5" of snow with a gradient to the south to Rt. 30. Below Rt 30, seeing a general 1-4" of snow with typical areas above 700' being the benefactor with elevation and could sneak into the high side of accumulation. I may be low balling given the trends, but with warm temps today to start, ground may eat some of the accumulation in the very beginning, so wen slightly below for areas reaching into the 60's today. Still, a very nice threat with added bonus snow in the form of snow squalls possible given the intense PVA and steep low level lapse rates across the state. 

Dont take this the wrong way....

but i'd hug you if I saw you right now (not that I'd have a clue to what you look like

All kidding aside, the last 2 cycles have shown that last minute increase in dynamics here in the LSV and while I'm trying to see what caused that, and like you, am worried down here SE of the mountains, but the vort pass is a favorable one and goes from 1013mb to 1008 off the coast, so it is gaining strength as it passes below the Mason Dixon, so what the heck.  I'm in.

Nut

 

 

 

[pasnownut]

Just now, maytownpawx said:

Your buddy from Millersville must really be lowballing, because his lollipop is 2"-5" north of us. 

His buddy has an on air fan club to keep happy.

 

Milleville just has us....so he can talk dirty......

Nut

 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Dont take this the wrong way....

but i'd hug you if I saw you right now (not that I'd have a clue to what you look like

All kidding aside, the last 2 cycles have shown that last minute increase in dynamics here in the LSV and while I'm trying to see what caused that, and like you, am worried down here SE of the mountains, but the vort pass is a favorable one and goes from 1013mb to 1008 off the coast, so it is gaining strength as it passes below the Mason Dixon, so what the heck.  I'm in.

Nut

 

 

 

My girlfriend thinks I'm good looking, so that's all that matters to me haha. I think tonight and through the afternoon will be some fun times across the sub-forum. I'm going a bit more ballsy than TV mets, but I can, so I'll take a stab. At least I have reasoning and am not being too audacious with my predictions. Let's hope the trend is really our friend!

1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

Your buddy from Millersville must really be lowballing, because his lollypop is 2"-5" north of us. 

I'm going a bit more gung-ho given the time the transition takes place the cold air advection being pretty stout for the area. Matt is an amazing forecaster and he's someone I take note of his forecast before making mine. We are literally cut from the same Eric Horst cloth and we generally like to take a more conservative approach. I might end up a little high on my predictions and I think a lot will have to do with ground temps as compared to radar trends. I also don;t work in the public sector, so I can be wrong (to a degree of course) and not get completely lambasted by hundreds of people (Just you guys ). I like the trends with the low, and I'm also taking into consideration snow squall accumulation over the region as well. I think that has a shot to over-perform in some areas. We shall see! I hope I'm right, but Mother Nature loves to prove people wrong. 

[AllWeather]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

My girlfriend thinks I'm good looking, so that's all that matters to me haha. I think tonight and through the afternoon will be some fun times across the sub-forum. I'm going a bit more ballsy than TV mets, but I can, so I'll take a stab. At least I have reasoning and am not being too audacious with my predictions. Let's hope the trend is really our friend!

I'm going a bit more gung-ho given the time the transition takes place the cold air advection being pretty stout for the area. Matt is an amazing forecaster and he's someone I take note of his forecast before making mine. We are literally cut from the same Eric Horst cloth and we generally like to take a more conservative approach. I might end up a little high on my predictions and I think a lot will have to do with ground temps as compared to radar trends. I also don;t work in the public sector, so I can be wrong (to a degree of course) and not get completely lambasted by hundreds of people (Just you guys ). I like the trends with the low, and I'm also taking into consideration snow squall accumulation over the region as well. I think that has a shot to over-perform in some areas. We shall see! I hope I'm right, but Mother Nature loves to prove people wrong. 

Thanks man, I look forward to your analysis as well. You're right about being cut from the ol' Horst school of forecasting. I see your bullish forecast and I agree it certainly has that upside to it. I'm still feeling a little scorched from the early February storm (which was an almost carbon copy of this one), where globals and meso guidance were putting out similar amounts, only to fall short by about 50% (or more) in many spots excluding true central PA. Just looking at current temps vs what guidance THINKS we are at has me instantly suspicious....12z GFS has our high for today about mid 50ish range in the LSV...we're currently basking in U50s/L60s right now. The same thing happened in early February. I think the "fool me once" saying comes into play here. I'm protecting my lower end and can work up if temps fall back in line to guidance. 

[pasnownut]

and down the road, what Voyager and I were just chatting about looks pretty good as per the GFS.

Sunday ticked south but appears a little slower (remember spacing), but looking at Tuesday the Northern jet vortex looks a little better, but still no phase w/ the Polar jet from my view.  IF we could get that Polar vort to phase w/ the northern stream vort (polar needs to be quicker, or northern slower...the word BOOM comes to mind.  Regardless, it still hits CPA w/ a nice event and as modelled, the non phase creates a longer duration event.  Heres the map thru 174.

Nice tick up in snow totals (Fri/Tues combo).

Nut

[Itstrainingtime]

20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

My girlfriend thinks I'm good looking, so that's all that matters to me haha. I think tonight and through the afternoon will be some fun times across the sub-forum. I'm going a bit more ballsy than TV mets, but I can, so I'll take a stab. At least I have reasoning and am not being too audacious with my predictions. Let's hope the trend is really our friend!

I'm going a bit more gung-ho given the time the transition takes place the cold air advection being pretty stout for the area. Matt is an amazing forecaster and he's someone I take note of his forecast before making mine. We are literally cut from the same Eric Horst cloth and we generally like to take a more conservative approach. I might end up a little high on my predictions and I think a lot will have to do with ground temps as compared to radar trends. I also don;t work in the public sector, so I can be wrong (to a degree of course) and not get completely lambasted by hundreds of people (Just you guys ). I like the trends with the low, and I'm also taking into consideration snow squall accumulation over the region as well. I think that has a shot to over-perform in some areas. We shall see! I hope I'm right, but Mother Nature loves to prove people wrong. 

I was actually referring to Eric himself.

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

My girlfriend thinks I'm good looking, so that's all that matters to me haha. I think tonight and through the afternoon will be some fun times across the sub-forum. I'm going a bit more ballsy than TV mets, but I can, so I'll take a stab. At least I have reasoning and am not being too audacious with my predictions. Let's hope the trend is really our friend!

I'm going a bit more gung-ho given the time the transition takes place the cold air advection being pretty stout for the area. Matt is an amazing forecaster and he's someone I take note of his forecast before making mine. We are literally cut from the same Eric Horst cloth and we generally like to take a more conservative approach. I might end up a little high on my predictions and I think a lot will have to do with ground temps as compared to radar trends. I also don;t work in the public sector, so I can be wrong (to a degree of course) and not get completely lambasted by hundreds of people (Just you guys ). I like the trends with the low, and I'm also taking into consideration snow squall accumulation over the region as well. I think that has a shot to over-perform in some areas. We shall see! I hope I'm right, but Mother Nature loves to prove people wrong. 

Yep thats all that matters.

Looking forward to the next few days and red tagger analysis and hope that we can reel in this Tueday deal.

Nut

 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, AllWeather said:

Thanks man, I look forward to your analysis as well. You're right about being cut from the ol' Horst school of forecasting. I see your bullish forecast and I agree it certainly has that upside to it. I'm still feeling a little scorched from the early February storm (which was an almost carbon copy of this one), where globals and meso guidance were putting out similar amounts, only to fall short by about 50% (or more) in many spots excluding true central PA. Just looking at current temps vs what guidance THINKS we are at has me instantly suspicious....12z GFS has our high for today about mid 50ish range in the LSV...we're currently basking in U50s/L60s right now. The same thing happened in early February. I think the "fool me once" saying comes into play here. I'm protecting my lower end and can work up if temps fall back in line to guidance. 

Thanks for the kind words Matt. Means a lot to me. You're a vet in the business now and I do appreciate hearing any insight you have and you can argue we got incredibly fortunate to work with one of, if not, the single best Met in all of PA when it comes to forecasting in general. I am certainly skeptical of the of the temps in the on going stages of the storm development, but man, not often you see this kind of cold air advection behind a low of at least this general magnitude. It's pretty robust and I think that helps compared to the last event. Also, that event got me 0.25" down here in Germantown and temps were in the low 70's that afternoon, so if we're in the low 60's with a more robust CAA regime, I think we might actually manage a bit more this go around. I wish we could stop having temps like this when the systems come in haha. As for tomorrow afternoon, I think snow squalls are going to be pretty incredible in some spots. I think that part of the forecast is being shadowed by this low itself and may catch people off guard. It's been very ugly this year on the multiple occasions we've had squalls setup over the state. I think a quick inch or 2" can be had for the usual suspects and some other spots east of the high terrain could sneak in some extra accumulation if the current forecast soundings come to light. It will be a fun night for everyone, except maybe Voyager, he only wants the big ones for work purposes. I don't envy him at this rate. 

[pasnownut]

here you can see the two pieces of energy not quite shaking hands.  Just wavin at each other.  A few frames later, they remain separate and 500 only closes off.....over Boston.  Argg.  Still upside (and downside) potential for better phasing. Plenty of time.

Nut

 

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I was actually referring to Eric himself.

Gotcha!! Eric is the master, so I'm looking carefully. He is more on the conservative side, and like Matt said in his reply to me, when you work in the public eye, you definitely don't want to bust high, but you can make fine tune adjustments with obs before and during the event. I'm sticking to my guns and whether or not I'm right, or it backfires on me will only be known when the snow falls 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

here you can see the two pieces of energy not quite shaking hands.  Just wavin at each other.  A few frames later, they remain separate and 500 only closes off.....over Boston.  Argg.  Still upside (and downside) potential for better phasing. Plenty of time.

Nut

 

It begins to close off south of us I believe on 0z Wednesday. Check a few frames up. It's not bad. Of course New England gets the full capture, but what else if new lol

[MillvilleWx]

[AllWeather]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Thanks for the kind words Matt. Means a lot to me. You're a vet in the business now and I do appreciate hearing any insight you have and you can argue we got incredibly fortunate to work with one of, if not, the single best Met in all of PA when it comes to forecasting in general. I am certainly skeptical of the of the temps in the on going stages of the storm development, but man, not often you see this kind of cold air advection behind a low of at least this general magnitude. It's pretty robust and I think that helps compared to the last event. Also, that event got me 0.25" down here in Germantown and temps were in the low 70's that afternoon, so if we're in the low 60's with a more robust CAA regime, I think we might actually manage a bit more this go around. I wish we could stop having temps like this when the systems come in haha. As for tomorrow afternoon, I think snow squalls are going to be pretty incredible in some spots. I think that part of the forecast is being shadowed by this low itself and may catch people off guard. It's been very ugly this year on the multiple occasions we've had squalls setup over the state. I think a quick inch or 2" can be had for the usual suspects and some other spots east of the high terrain could sneak in some extra accumulation if the current forecast soundings come to light. It will be a fun night for everyone, except maybe Voyager, he only wants the big ones for work purposes. I don't envy him at this rate. 

A vet in the business? Now I feel old! Get off my lawn! Seriously though, thank you.

You make a good point. You're right, the depth and strength of the cold air is far colder than the early Feb system. That's certainly a wild card that could work in favor of higher amounts. I'm surprised you picked up 2" in that event. Parts of southern Lanc Co saw wet ground..that's it! I think dynamics aren't quite as strong as the last storm, but they are trending stronger the last few runs. 

I'm playing conservative for this system until temps prove me otherwise. Tuesday though, my spidey-senses are tingling. 

[pasnownut]

 

Here is capture i was referring to a few panels later.  Sorry for confusion.  I was toggling back to earlier runs...

hey Im not paid for this...give me a break.....:)

 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, AllWeather said:

A vet in the business? Now I feel old! Get off my lawn! Seriously though, thank you.

You make a good point. You're right, the depth and strength of the cold air is far colder than the early Feb system. That's certainly a wild card that could work in favor of higher amounts. I'm surprised you picked up 2" in that event. Parts of southern Lanc Co saw wet ground..that's it! I think dynamics aren't quite as strong as the last storm, but they are trending stronger the last few runs. 

I'm playing conservative for this system until temps prove me otherwise. Tuesday though, my spidey-senses are tingling. 

I'll get off your lawn as long as you tell me Clint Eastwood style  

I think you misread my post as I haven't seen 2 whole inches combined the whole season lol. Was only 1/4" for the last event, but that was 1/8" more than I thought I was going to see. Got a nice band over me last second and saw it fall since I was on overnight shifts. I would kill for just an inch out of this down here, but I think north of I-70 has a shot with better chances the further north you go. 

I'm not talking too much about Tuesday as I'm slightly superstitious, but............. 

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

 

Here is capture i was referring to a few panels later.  Sorry for confusion.  I was toggling back to earlier runs...

hey Im not paid for this...give me a break.....:)

 

Just messin with you. I think we can take solace that run was pretty sweet, but I think I might take out GFS's Canadian cousin  

[AllWeather]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll get off your lawn as long as you tell me Clint Eastwood style  

I think you misread my post as I haven't seen 2 whole inches combined the whole season lol. Was only 1/4" for the last event, but that was 1/8" more than I thought I was going to see. Got a nice band over me last second and saw it fall since I was on overnight shifts. I would kill for just an inch out of this down here, but I think north of I-70 has a shot with better chances the further north you go. 

I'm not talking too much about Tuesday as I'm slightly superstitious, but............. 

I did misread. My bad! Gun to my head, I'd go C-2" south of the PA Turnpike. 2-4" north of there. I know that's more conservative than some models are showing, but for reasons already discussed, I'm happy with that call. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, AllWeather said:

I did misread. My bad! Gun to my head, I'd go C-2" south of the PA Turnpike. 2-4" north of there. I know that's more conservative than some models are showing, but for reasons already discussed, I'm happy with that call. 

That's pretty solid if you ask me. I'm actually not too far behind. A bit more gung-ho, but within reasonable difference. I hope to see snow obs from you in the AM up there!

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just messin with you. I think we can take solace that run was pretty sweet, but I think I might take out GFS's Canadian cousin  

I know you were.  Yeah as depicted....I think many in here would sign.

 

 

[heavy_wx]

1 hour ago, AllWeather said:

I'm with you. Temps already at 60 with a wave coming to give us snow in less than 24 hours? Hmmm, where did we see this before? Oh yeah, last month (Feb 8th/9th). 

Cold air push on models with a wave developing along the front is, in my experience, almost always overdone for SC PA. We burned half our QPF in last months storm on rain after hitting 60F. Granted, this cold air is far deeper and colder than last time, but still, very weary. 

The PM squalls look good. Lapse rates from surface to 700mb approaching 10C/km. Love me some 20k foot snow anvils! But you're right, they can be deadly for drivers. We've been hitting that home the last few events!

I like Tuesday's chances. Wouldn't take that much QPF in our area to put out plowable snows. Temps in the teens and 20s will mean quite the fluff factor 

Yeah the lapse rates tomorrow afternoon look pretty impressive; the 12z 4K NAM has a most absolutely unstable layer at MDT between 900-800 mb and ~150 J/kg CAPE. Conditions are basically perfect for that with strong cold air advection aloft and surface warming with the increased mid-March sun angle.

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Yeah the lapse rates tomorrow afternoon look pretty impressive; the 12z 4K NAM has a most absolutely unstable layer at MDT between 900-800 mb and ~150 J/kg CAPE. Conditions are basically perfect for that with strong cold air advection aloft and surface warming with the increased mid-March sun angle.

 

23 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just messin with you. I think we can take solace that run was pretty sweet, but I think I might take out GFS's Canadian cousin  

Well for Tomorrows event.....I'm hugging the Canuck model for all its worth.

Nut

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Multiple red taggers spending lunch hour with us. Board's a hoppin' right now. 

Thinking back over the past 10 years, this is actually what I remember most. It's all the good discussion and analysis leading up to storms that is thrilling to me. Last winter, as my 30" storm was winding down, I was sitting at my PC and feeling kind of let down to be honest.

Let's enjoy the ride over the next several days, and here's hoping for snow on snow for all of us! 

[djr5001]

1 hour ago, AllWeather said:

Thanks man, I look forward to your analysis as well. You're right about being cut from the ol' Horst school of forecasting. I see your bullish forecast and I agree it certainly has that upside to it. I'm still feeling a little scorched from the early February storm (which was an almost carbon copy of this one), where globals and meso guidance were putting out similar amounts, only to fall short by about 50% (or more) in many spots excluding true central PA. Just looking at current temps vs what guidance THINKS we are at has me instantly suspicious....12z GFS has our high for today about mid 50ish range in the LSV...we're currently basking in U50s/L60s right now. The same thing happened in early February. I think the "fool me once" saying comes into play here. I'm protecting my lower end and can work up if temps fall back in line to guidance. 

I noticed same thing with 12z GFS and NAM - they seem to really struggle with being too cold for highs when we have the downsloping west/northwesterly winds and full sunshine and too warm with the east/southeasterly flow that gives us the overcast and foggy kind of days around here far too often. 

The one difference that I see with this event compared to February is that this one does not appear to have a warm front ticking back north around onset of precip which is what really screwed the York, part of Lancaster, and more southern areas from seeing the changeover in time.  The downside to that positive though, is PWAT values for this event look to be much lower (nearly half) of what they were last month.  The dynamics combined with the high PWAT are pretty much the only way that some spots around Harrisburg were able to even get close to the 5" mark in recovery of what was lost precip wise prior to the changeover.

[Itstrainingtime]

Horst: "Tuesday could be the real deal"

Initiate tingling feeling...