Central PA - March 2017

[AllWeather]

9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Do you find people tend to be unduly picky about whether a 1"-3"/3"-6" forecast verifies , but once things start to exceed 12" a 1'-2' general forecast is perfectly fine to them?


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Exactly. Prime example: blizzard last year. Had people in 16-24 that got over 30", no complaints that I saw. I think at that point the impacts are the same..you're not going anywhere.

[kdskidoo]

3 hours ago, Voyager said:

One thing I haven't seen is any discussion of thunder. Usually storms like this have thundersnow somewhere.

definitely possible.

 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I've started including this in my discussions. Definitely something I'm watching closely. Would cut down on totals...probably in half. 

as we often see w/ the models, I'm expecting that last minute adjustment SE (and hope so to keep me in the safe zone).

Do you not think that likely this time?

Nut

[Jns2183]

definitely possible.

 

This area seems to get its fair share of Thundersnow. We even had it in that storm this February.


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[paweather]

Globals continue to show wrap around through 6z Wed where as the shorter range models NAM/RGEM do not. We be interesting to see trends today on last part of the storm.

[AllWeather]

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

as we often see w/ the models, I'm expecting that last minute adjustment SE (and hope so to keep me in the safe zone).

Do you not think that likely this time?

Nut

Seems like the high-res models want to wrap up tighter/little slower, causing that slight westward shift. Globals farther east. Can't argue with high-res guidance for small scale details, but synoptic evolutions are probably better handled by the globals at this juncture. I would say somewhere between the west based guidance and globals is the correct solution. 12z will be telling. 

[pasnownut]

Cobb data for Lancaster.  I approve.  15.1 for lancaster w/ 1 hour of taint.

Nut

StnID: klns    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
==========================================================================================================
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-
170314/0100Z  19  10007KT  26.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170314/0200Z  20  11009KT  28.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170314/0300Z  21  09010KT  27.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170314/0400Z  22  09008KT  26.7F  SNOW   16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   16:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
170314/0500Z  23  07012KT  26.0F  SNOW   14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106   15:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
170314/0600Z  24  06015KT  26.0F  SNOW   15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065   15:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/0700Z  25  05015KT  26.1F  SNOW   17:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133   16:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32  100|  0|  0
170314/0800Z  26  06020KT  27.6F  SNOW   12:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193   14:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
170314/0900Z  27  06020KT  28.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154   13:1|  8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
170314/1000Z  28  06020KT  28.7F  SNOW    8:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153   12:1|  9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82  100|  0|  0
170314/1100Z  29  05019KT  27.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160   11:1| 10.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  30  04021KT  28.1F  SNPL    2:1| 0.4|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.166   10:1| 11.2|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.15   65| 35|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1300Z  31  02021KT  26.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104   10:1| 11.9|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.25  100|  0|  0
170314/1400Z  32  01019KT  25.8F  SNOW    8:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207    9:1| 13.7|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.46  100|  0|  0
170314/1500Z  33  01019KT  25.2F  SNOW    5:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185    9:1| 14.5|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.64  100|  0|  0
170314/1600Z  34  36019KT  27.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    9:1| 14.9|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.70  100|  0|  0
170314/1700Z  35  35018KT  27.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    9:1| 15.1|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.73  100|  0|  0
170314/1800Z  36  34017KT  28.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    9:1| 15.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.75  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1900Z  37  33017KT  27.9F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    9:1| 15.4|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.76  100|  0|  0
170314/2000Z  38  32017KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1| 15.4|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.76    0|  0|  0
170314/2100Z  39  32018KT  27.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1| 15.4|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.76    0|  0|  0
170314/2200Z  40  32019KT  26.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1| 15.4|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.76    0|  0|  0
170314/2300Z  41  32019KT  24.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1| 15.4|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.76    0|  0|  0
170315/0000Z  42  31018KT  23.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1| 15.4|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 1.76    0|  0|  0

[CarlislePaWx]

Euro map totals are just astronomical.  At 10:1 the totals are amazing.  With Kuchera the geographical coverage of 30"+ readings are astounding.  From that perspective this storm would easily eclipse last year's Jan blizzard on the KU storm NESIS ratings I would think.

Got down to 14 degrees here this morning with no snow cover.  Easily would have been close to zero with snow.  Exciting times are 'a-comin.

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Seems like the high-res models want to wrap up tighter/little slower, causing that slight westward shift. Globals farther east. Can't argue with high-res guidance for small scale details, but synoptic evolutions are probably better handled by the globals at this juncture. I would say somewhere between the west based guidance and globals is the correct solution. 12z will be telling. 

I've also heard some really good mets say that in wound up storms, the mix line almost always extends further back west than any model projects. Any truth to that?

I'm in northwestern Lanco, and I fully expect to taint. What will be especially painful is that for every hour of taint, I probably lose 2" of snow falling plus compaction from the non-snow precip fallling. 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Seems like the high-res models want to wrap up tighter/little slower, causing that slight westward shift. Globals farther east. Can't argue with high-res guidance for small scale details, but synoptic evolutions are probably better handled by the globals at this juncture. I would say somewhere between the west based guidance and globals is the correct solution. 12z will be telling. 

Thx Matt.  Basically my thinking as well.  Globals have been rock steady w/ track and hi res for meso features is a good blend (pluse it puts me right where i wanna be.  

Good luck man.  We got ur back....lol

Nut

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I've also heard some really good mets say that in wound up storms, the mix line almost always extends further back west than any model projects. Any truth to that?

I'm in northwestern Lanco, and I fully expect to taint. What will be especially painful is that for every hour of taint, I probably lose 2" of snow falling plus compaction from the non-snow precip fallling. 

see cobb data from 2 hours ago.  I posted above.  I'll take it, and if a slight SE adjustment comes as I'm guessing.  We'd likely go up a bit.

Nut

[canderson]

So question for those familiar with snow in March.

Rates look very nice but will it be tough to keep additional acculturating during the afternoon hours tomorrow despite rates? Or will compaction/melting be happening quicker than snow pileup once we get in the afternoon peak sun time? Just curious.

[AllWeather]

1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

I've also heard some really good mets say that in wound up storms, the mix line almost always extends further back west than any model projects. Any truth to that?

I'm in northwestern Lanco, and I fully expect to taint. What will be especially painful is that for every hour of taint, I probably lose 2" of snow falling plus compaction from the non-snow precip fallling. 

I always say the main precip shield is always usually a little farther west than progged, but I can't say I've experienced enough storms to really remember the mixing line. I would think a stronger storm could dynamically cool the column enough to support all snow, but those ESE inflow winds off the ocean are going to torch things. The question is how much do we torch?

[vortmax]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

So question for those familiar with snow in March.

Rates look very nice but will it be tough to keep additional acculturating during the afternoon hours tomorrow despite rates? Or will compaction/melting be happening quicker than snow pileup once we get in the afternoon peak sun time? Just curious.

This is an unusually cold airmass that's been around for a few days - so my guess is that it will pile up quite nicely, maybe not as quickly as in mid-Jan., but certainly not typical mid-March rates.

[AllWeather]

12z NAM surface low slightly east at HR 18 (32 & 12k versions), sleet/snow line pushed about 25 miles at that hour. 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

So question for those familiar with snow in March.

Rates look very nice but will it be tough to keep additional acculturating during the afternoon hours tomorrow despite rates? Or will compaction/melting be happening quicker than snow pileup once we get in the afternoon peak sun time? Just curious.

see cobb data for ratios above.  You are correct.  as shown we get down to 6:1 in Lancaster.  we also get up to 17:1.   

here you go.  Enjoy.   http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=klns

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, AllWeather said:

12z NAM surface low slightly east at HR 18 (32 & 12k versions), sleet/snow line pushed about 25 miles at that hour. 

Good news.

We're walking a tightrope...those of us in the southeast want an eastward jog today, but then that comes at the expense of those further west.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

12z NAM surface low slightly east at HR 18 (32 & 12k versions), sleet/snow line pushed about 25 miles at that hour. 

Thats the tick I've been hoping for.  Liking the look !!  I still taint but I still think it looks fantastic.  12K has been western outlier for much of the evolution.

4k and 3k should come in rather nice IMO. 

Nut

 

[pasnownut]

As I expected....4k tickin East as well.  

Looking like a good one.

[pasnownut]

12k will look to finish in the nest and has corrected.  I'm betting 3 nice eggs sitting close together

Were gonna like.

[AllWeather]

Looking at some of the WSW statements to our SE. If sleet is just a little farther NW than progged, there will be a huge sleety bust in the I-95 corridor. Eric Horst just tweeted me about large bombing systems having the transition line farther NW than modeled. He'd be the guy to know!

[paweather]

NAM 12K shows nice wrap around:

[pasnownut]

4k taint line moves slightly east.  Yep....time to get giddy(r) round here.

Cant WAIT to see 4k snow map.

 

 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Looking at some of the WSW statements to our SE. If sleet is just a little farther NW than progged, there will be a huge sleety bust in the I-95 corridor. Eric Horst just tweeted me about large bombing systems having the transition line farther NW than modeled. He'd be the guy to know!

If I lived in DC or NE I'd be super nervous.

[paweather5]

[paweather5]

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, paweather5 said:

I'll take my 22" and run.  A little sleet in there to keep i dense.  Sign my butt up!!

 

[sauss06]

Heck, we could see snow into Wednesday. 

[Jns2183]

At 18z the 4km-NAM and 3km-Para-NAM both still have that deform band all the way back to the LSV



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[paweather5]

Last one for the nam