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Central PA - March 2017


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Just now, paweather said:

Didn't really think it would remind of 93 but it is starting to now. More Miller A like then B (even though officially would be B ) and potential for mixing to our SE. Huge swath of precip coming up from the south and then it is all the matter where the deform band sets up.

Guess I AM taking one for the team.........

:(

 

J/K

I'm over it (plus I think they are wrong) :)

Nut

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purty colors for EVERYONE

C6vLJE5WwAITX1R.jpg:large

Just now, heavy_wx said:

Yeah, this is not March '93. That storm had a full phasing of the northern and southern streams over the southeast US.

031321.png

Yeah I knew that it was a triple phaser, but from a pressure perspective, wasnt 973 93's max as well?

Nut

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IIRC Friday the Euro had a really similar solution before it waffled and begun the NW trend.

My initial fear of flipping to rain/sleet for a period is still there but I'll happily take it.



I don't think I've seen a model run yet that had the mix line to Harrisburg


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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I knew that it was a triple phaser, but from a pressure perspective, wasnt 973 93's max as well?

Nut

The Euro has the pressure "only" down to 987 mb 12z Tuesday when it will be affecting our region; it does drop to 973 mb once it reaches coastal Maine. As you can see in the NARR image the superstorm had SLP values in the 970s over the mid-Atlantic. The pressure gradient was therefore much stronger during that event over central PA than the forecasts for this storm.

Because of the early phasing, the storm was quite intense all the way up the east coast, producing heavy snow and blizzard conditions from the southeast to New England.

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Just now, heavy_wx said:

The Euro has the pressure "only" down to 987 mb 12z Tuesday when it will be affecting our region; it does drop to 973 mb once it reaches coastal Maine. As you can see in the NARR image the superstorm had SLP values in the 970s over the mid-Atlantic. The pressure gradient was therefore much stronger during that event over central PA than the forecasts for this storm.

Because of the early phasing, the storm was quite intense all the way up the east coast, producing heavy snow and blizzard conditions from the southeast to New England.

Gotcha.  was 967 max then?  My old mind forgets?

thx Heavy.

Nut

 

 

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CTP upgrades to WSWs, calling for widespread 10-18".

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
324 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-130730-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.170314T0000Z-170315T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170315T0200Z/
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Coudersport, Emporium, Renovo, 
Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, 
Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, 
Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, 
Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, 
Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, 
Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
324 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for Heavy Snow, which is in effect from 8 PM Monday
to 10 PM EDT Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in 
effect.

* LOCATIONS...The Central and Northeastern Mountains and the 
Susquehanna Valley.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 to 18 inches.

* TIMING...Snow will move into southern PA Monday evening. The
  snow will rapidly cover the entire area before midnight. The
  heaviest snow will occur Monday night through noon on Tuesday.
  Additional light snow is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. 

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and 
  may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the 
  snow on tree limbs and power lines. 

* WINDS...Southeast at 5 to 10 mph turning to the east and then
  north on Tuesday. Gusts may get into the 20s on Tuesday in the
  Susquehanna Valley.

* TEMPERATURES...Mid 20s to lower 30s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation reminds motorists
to adjust speeds based on driving conditions and to take it slow
in ice and snow.
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Just now, canderson said:

CTP upgrades to WSWs, calling for widespread 10-18".

 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
324 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-130730-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.170314T0000Z-170315T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170315T0200Z/
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Coudersport, Emporium, Renovo, 
Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, 
Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, 
Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, 
Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, 
Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, 
Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
324 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for Heavy Snow, which is in effect from 8 PM Monday
to 10 PM EDT Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in 
effect.

* LOCATIONS...The Central and Northeastern Mountains and the 
Susquehanna Valley.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 to 18 inches.

* TIMING...Snow will move into southern PA Monday evening. The
  snow will rapidly cover the entire area before midnight. The
  heaviest snow will occur Monday night through noon on Tuesday.
  Additional light snow is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. 

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and 
  may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the 
  snow on tree limbs and power lines. 

* WINDS...Southeast at 5 to 10 mph turning to the east and then
  north on Tuesday. Gusts may get into the 20s on Tuesday in the
  Susquehanna Valley.

* TEMPERATURES...Mid 20s to lower 30s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation reminds motorists
to adjust speeds based on driving conditions and to take it slow
in ice and snow.

I'll take it.  

Nut

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15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I was busy with family things the last few hours & just got caught up.

Absolutely best model runs since last January's blizzard. This is just crazy to think we might get another chance at a top 10 all time storm at MDT!!!!

Ya think? 

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

Listening to scanner now. Sounds like one of the units has collapsed or is soon to collapse. They evacuated everyone urgently. 

I was on our own call so I missed some of the city chatter but they've evacuated several times and it's still not under control 

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