MAG5035 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Glad to see what's probably the best run the Euro has had with this storm with regards to a widespread warning level snow for pretty much all of our forum region... at a good range for such things (getting into the 48-60hr timeframe). Looks like the 6z NAM has slipped a bit east of 0z, throttling the Sus Valley into NE PA but not impacting true central as hard. CTP now has their entire CWA under watches along with a few of the eastern most PBZ counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Absolutely great model runs overnight !!! There is strong agreement at this time with most of the major models. For MDT, The 0z Euro jumped back to 16 inches of snow at 10-1 ratio & has 21 inches with Kuchera ratio,which looks to be using a 13-1 ratio. The 6z NAM has the LSV in the 15 to 17 inch range on both the 12 k & 4 k models. There is an old rule of thumb that says to be confident with a storm forecast when the NAM & Euro agree with each other. The 0z EPS looked better than 12z, with around 12 inches now for the LSV. Game on ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GOOOD MORNING CPA PEEPS. Looks like EPS mean gives most of Eastern PA a pounding. I'll start off the day w/ the day w/ the RGEM. Looks like a great start to the day. Only goes to 48, but paint your own snow maps for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 06z 4kNAM ups snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ok, so the whole NAM suite is just putting most of us into fantastic snow totals. Not saying they all verify, but all are coming in wetter and for me confidence continues to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 06 GFS is only one that looks like it took a step back from 0z but doesnt make much sense to me as at hr 54 LP is WEST of 06 but precip doesnt reflect. By hour 60 it is 3mb weaker than 0z. Guessing thats why NW quad shows less backbuilding. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 They let me have the red pen.....again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 CTP's current Facebook map shows a nice snowfall for most of Pennsylvania, especially the eastern 2/3 of the commonwealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Not going to lie, this storm has me on edge for accuracy issues. That western low could dictate a lot about how this plays out and wreak havoc on forecasts if it's slightly different from progged. I don't like taking the models as rule, but moreso as a "what are the models telling us" type of thing. This weakness on the NW side of the QPF shields that has come and gone on the operationals makes me uneasy. Not saying this won't be a significant storm, but saying that this could be a 4-10" storm for this forum as easily as it could be a 8-18+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, AllWeather said: Not going to lie, this storm has me on edge for accuracy issues. That western low could dictate a lot about how this plays out and wreak havoc on forecasts if it's slightly different from progged. I don't like taking the models as rule, but moreso as a "what are the models telling us" type of thing. This weakness on the NW side of the QPF shields that has come and gone on the operationals makes me uneasy. Not saying this won't be a significant storm, but saying that this could be a 4-10" storm for this forum as easily as it could be a 8-18+ storm. Thats a great point. As you know I like to post maps, and off what I can see going on (to the best of my ability). That said, the most variability noticed in last 12 hrs, has been the NW quadrant and as there still are a few models (noteably the GFS) want to let it escape ENE which could have big impact for 2001kx n folks out his way. what gets me is at 0z your point is evident. Look at the SLP and 500 off the east coast. Just doesnt look right. see below 06z looks better/cleaner w/ less interaction w/ the ULL to me. SLP also seems to match 500 better, but is 3 mb weaker. look at the isobars on the NW quad. That ULL is definately wreaking a little havoc for our western crew. By the same token, that seems to extend our snowfall, as the 500 LP passes through later Tuesday. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This is really going to be an interesting storm for me. As I alluded to in previous posts, I will not be at home for this one. I will be in the Bloomsburg area for orientation at a new job. If we really get pummeled, and no one can make it in to the trucking company I'm going to be driving for, then I will be spending a boring day (day 2 of a 3 day orientation) stuck in a motel room. The only saving grace is that I have a lifted Jeep, so if I would want to, I "could" go gallivanting around the region taking pics and video. The catch to that is I'll be relying on my little Galaxy S6 to check models, radar, and this site, as most of my good weather sites are bookmarked here on my desktop pc. With that being said... LET IT SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1) Noticed that overnight CTP updated the WSW from the potential of 6" or more, now the watch is saying for the potential of 10" or more. I like that. 2) I suspect that I will add little to no value to my employer tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, maytownpawx said: 1) Noticed that overnight CTP updated the WSW from the potential of 6" or more, now the watch is saying for the potential of 10" or more. I like that. 2) I suspect that I will add little to no value to my employer tomorrow. lol at bullet point #2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: 1) Noticed that overnight CTP updated the WSW from the potential of 6" or more, now the watch is saying for the potential of 10" or more. I like that. 2) I suspect that I will add little to no value to my employer tomorrow. Part of my job is to watch for unusual weather. so I get paid to do this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Voyager said: This is really going to be an interesting storm for me. As I alluded to in previous posts, I will not be at home for this one. I will be in the Bloomsburg area for orientation at a new job. If we really get pummeled, and no one can make it in to the trucking company I'm going to be driving for, then I will be spending a boring day (day 2 of a 3 day orientation) stuck in a motel room. The only saving grace is that I have a lifted Jeep, so if I would want to, I "could" go gallivanting around the region taking pics and video. The catch to that is I'll be relying on my little Galaxy S5 to check models, radar, and this site as most of my good weather sites are bookmarked here on my desktop pc. With that being said... LET IT SNOW! Wait.........what.......... do mine eyes deceive me?? did you fall?? Are you ok?? By George, it is gonna snow!! I know your a go big or go home kinda guy. I say you just stay home and gallivant up around Locust Lake. Pretty country up in them there coal hills. Nut Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1) Noticed that overnight CTP updated the WSW from the potential of 6" or more, now the watch is saying for the potential of 10" or more. I like that. 2) I suspect that I will add little to no value to my employer tomorrow.Me too!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, maytownpawx said: 1) Noticed that overnight CTP updated the WSW from the potential of 6" or more, now the watch is saying for the potential of 10" or more. I like that. 2) I suspect that I will add little to no value to my employer tomorrow. Glad to see them dipping a toe in da water!! and LMAO. Yeah thats pretty much a given for anyone in this forum. Hoping today continues the good trends. Getting pretty close so hopefully were runnin outta wiggle on this bad boy. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just woke up....that Euro run really got me amped up!Now let's bring this home!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Superstorm said: Just woke up....that Euro run really got me amped up! Now let's bring this home! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Dude....WTF....how can you sleep with a storm coming? I try, but it just doesnt work. My wife asked me at 530 AM "why are you getting out of bed? You haven't been sleeping well lately." I laughed and said, do you really need me to answer that? Im sick....I know. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Dude....WTF....how can you sleep with a storm coming? I try, but it just doesnt work. My wife asked me at 530 AM "why are you getting out of bed? You haven't been sleeping well lately." I laughed and said, do you really need me to answer that? Im sick....I know. Nut Cmon brother. I was at least was up til 3:00 am. I'm pulling my weight, LOL!My girlfriend thinks I'm crazy but that's the price you pay for being with a weather weenie.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Superstorm said: Cmon brother. I was at least was up til 3:00 am. I'm pulling my weight, LOL! My girlfriend thinks I'm crazy but that's the price you pay for being with a weather weenie. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk atta boy....I'm proud of you. Glad to see I'm in such good company..... Here's to hoping for a great day of model runs. I'll be around for 12z's but will be doing storm prep chores....whoohoo!! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Cmon brother. I was at least was up til 3:00 am. I'm pulling my weight, LOL!My girlfriend thinks I'm crazy but that's the price you pay for being with a weather weenie. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I told my wife when we met that she would be an internet widow whenever a major winter storm threatened the region. But...I don't and won't miss sleep just to stay up for a model run. As Ralph Wiggum mentioned in the Philly thread, the model output will still be there when you wake up in the morning. Once the storm starts, however, if the best rates are going to be during the overnight hours, I may stay up, or wake up early to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I told my wife when we met that she would be an internet widow whenever a major winter storm threatened the region. But...I don't and won't miss sleep just to stay up for a model run. As Ralph Wiggum mentioned in the Philly thread, the model output will still be there when you wake up in the morning. Once the storm starts, however, if the best rates are going to be during the overnight hours, I may stay up, or wake up early to see it.For me in big storms it's like being a kid on Christmas morning. Too much adrenaline pumping.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: For me in big storms it's like being a kid on Christmas morning. Too much adrenaline pumping. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The night before a storm I can usually get to sleep. If, however, I wake up at 1:30am to go pee, it's all over. I'm NOT falling back to sleep...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 hours ago, canderson said: I interrupt this thread - sorry .. @sauss06 my brother, I'm deeply sorry for your brotherly loss tonight. PM me I I can do anything - as a HBG resident I'm without words. Thank you, much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: 1) Noticed that overnight CTP updated the WSW from the potential of 6" or more, now the watch is saying for the potential of 10" or more. I like that. 2) I suspect that I will add little to no value to my employer tomorrow. Lol! It's going to be struggle tomorrow at work. I'm so glad I have off Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Something you guys can think about today.. do we want to do a separate C-PA obs thread for this storm like we did with last year's big one? I know this one will likely not be coming with the excessive totals that one did but barring a major shift in things the next 24 hours this storm has the potential to bring warning snows to the entire subforum region for a change, with a good chunk probably seeing double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 hours ago, Jns2183 said: From twitter met Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Not going to lie, this storm has me on edge for accuracy issues. That western low could dictate a lot about how this plays out and wreak havoc on forecasts if it's slightly different from progged. I don't like taking the models as rule, but moreso as a "what are the models telling us" type of thing. This weakness on the NW side of the QPF shields that has come and gone on the operationals makes me uneasy. Not saying this won't be a significant storm, but saying that this could be a 4-10" storm for this forum as easily as it could be a 8-18+ storm. I feel you on this. I haven't made any calls or updates to people because of that. I'm giving it till after 12z runs today to add my 2 cents to people on FB and what not. That being said, I mentioned yesterday that I thought the southern tier east of 81 is looking decent for a good event. Well, that certainly stands and I'll go as far to say anyone from Gettysburg on east in the southern tier is almost primed for a minimum of 8". We go through with every storm (Last years Blizzard no exception) that something is always allowing for pause when making a final forecast. The one thing I will say is our technology has gotten better and I like to think when every model is depicting something very similar, it probably has caught on to the general idea of how it most likely will unfold. Can changes occur prior to game time? Sure. But I don't see many major changes in the horizon. I'm sure there will be greater data sampling for some of today's runs like they did last night runs. That to me is significant. The one area in question as far as potential is the area west of 81. The expansion of the QPF field to the west will be contingent on the interaction with that low out in OH Valley. That might not be completely resolved until tomorrow morning. That's at least my take. I actually haven't talked to Eric yet, but he should be coming out with his call today I would believe. If he's pulling triggers for 8+ over part of the state, that's when you got to think it will happen. Good luck making a call! I look forward to hearing for you Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, MAG5035 said: Something you guys can think about today.. do we want to do a separate C-PA obs thread for this storm like we did with last year's big one? I know this one will likely not be coming with the excessive totals that one did but barring a major shift in things the next 24 hours this storm has the potential to bring warning snows to the entire subforum region for a change, with a good chunk probably seeing double digits. I think its a good idea. Would also be easier to reference for the next big storm that takes on a similar evolution. Or just easier to find if it goes down well, and some of us are mid summer drippin sweat and in need of saving. JMO Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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