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Central PA - March 2017


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9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Man, for some places in New York there is like a 20" difference between the NAM and GFS


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yeah, I have to say I'm not sure if the north or south camp wins.  A compromise would be just fine by most of us.

Nut

 

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3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

This is the 2nd run in a row where the GFS took the coastal east northeast away from the coastline as it approached out latitude, hence the dramatic drop off in snowfall up north. Something to watch in future runs with other models. 

Yep though you have to admit we are within 54hr to start it would take a huge change for CPA/LSV to not get at least 6" plus inches. Right now confidence is high and knowing the NAM/RGEM solutions everything is right on track for a nice March storm. Major versus Big is up in the air.

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5 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

This is the 2nd run in a row where the GFS took the coastal east northeast away from the coastline as it approached out latitude, hence the dramatic drop off in snowfall up north. Something to watch in future runs with other models. 

yeah, I saw that.  once beyond us it scoots left.  Not sure if thats the start of something or not.

regardless, this would satisfy many.

USA_SNODI_sfc_075.gif

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CMC been constantly super dry in the NW quadrant... hoping that's just an anomaly, but NAM is also showing a very sharp cutoff. GFS shows a much longer event.... could have been even better if it wasn't for that crazy bootleg out to sea.



And then there is the NAM


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2 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

CMC been constantly super dry in the NW quadrant... hoping that's just an anomaly, but NAM is also showing a very sharp cutoff. GFS shows a much longer event.... could have been even better if it wasn't for that crazy bootleg out to sea.

Bingo.  Thats the reason for the suddenly sharper cutoff.  Its a new twist, but hopefully just a hiccup.  It was discussed earlier today as something to watch, as there was nothing to keep the storm from doing what we just saw.  small changes, still have big meanings for us.

not doing the Euro.  So give me something good to read.  I'll be up early (and heck may stop in for a peek).  who knows

Nut

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