Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 25 minutes ago, paweather said: yes compared to 0z it is still east but not like the OP. The 12z EPS was closer to the coast than the12z Euro Op. However, the 12z EPS was slightly east of the 0z EPS last night. The 12z EPS did cut back snow amounts by a few inches from its run last night. It now has around 9 inches in the Harrisburg area & about 11 inches in Lancaster. So, if we add a few inches to account for maybe 13 to 15 to 1 ratios, the LSV stands to get maybe 1 foot of snow according to the EPS. There is still lots of time to shift this back a little further west in order to bring us back to those 15-20 inch totals from the last day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I like the mean and position in Euro. Have room for east or west shift and still be in warning snows. And still possible uptick. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk yeah I'd have to say its hard to complain about. Toggling thru the panels, it is the only major to lose steam for noon runs. Went from 991 to 994, and being less amped is likely to make it slide right a bit as per surface maps. Still time to come back and it really wouldnt take much to bring back the King. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Curious what some of our expert red-taggers are thinking at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Curious what some of our expert red-taggers are thinking at this time. Yeah....anyways.....what gives PRO's?? We see you lurking at the bottom Either your laughing at all of the weenie banter/analysis....or us rookies are just that good Pick one (but if its opt. #1 be kind) Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18z NAM lifts our spirits LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, paweather said: 18z NAM lifts our spirits LOL. at 48 the ULL is noteably ESE from basically western Illinois to western Indiana. Pos tilt so Im not sure how this plays out yet. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: at 48 the ULL is noteably ESE from basically western Illinois to western Indiana. Pos tilt so Im not sure how this plays out yet. Nut hammer time at 60. West Rain in dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: at 48 the ULL is noteably ESE from basically western Illinois to western Indiana. Pos tilt so Im not sure how this plays out yet. Nut Hearing from our friends down south the NAM is horrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, maytownpawx said: Hearing from our friends down south the NAM is horrible? Not for us at least not at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Hearing from our friends down south the NAM is horrible? for them yes. For us.......you decide (I'm gettin scarily close to taint though). Need to look at 700 and 850's though for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Not for us at least not at 60. The NAM pretty much hoses DC with barely a half inch of snow, so... Up here it's still good, but it seems to be pushing the best snows (if one only looks at the snowfall maps) farther north to where no one in Virginia does good except for Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Eskimo Joe just cancelled the storm. So game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I like the NAM .... could be some left correction with other models.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah....anyways.....what gives PRO's?? We see you lurking at the bottom Either your laughing at all of the weenie banter/analysis....or us rookies are just that good Pick one (but if its opt. #1 be kind) Nut I've been at work and it's been an interesting day nonetheless over here, so haven't dove into anything. Just from trends, it still looks like the LSV is in for a decent event. NAM is still at range and I only use it for trend purposes. It's sticking to its west guns so far, but it could be over amping. Either way, I still think the southern tier east of 81 is in okay shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 gonna be a drier run as dryslot is approaching at 63 . notable tick lower but still a decent hit..... its off hour anyway....we toss. lol...sorta. nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I like the NAM .... could be some left correction with other models. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk just for you bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, canderson said: Eskimo Joe just cancelled the storm. So game on. Ha! I saw that too in the Mid Atlantic thread. It was about this range from last January's blizzard that he cancelled it because the Euro backed off on snow amounts for 1 run ! I think him canceling is a great sign that we are going to get clobbered on Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I've been at work and it's been an interesting day nonetheless over here, so haven't dove into anything. Just from trends, it still looks like the LSV is in for a decent event. NAM is still at range and I only use it for trend purposes. It's sticking to its west guns so far, but it could be over amping. Either way, I still think the southern tier east of 81 is in okay shape. thx man. Keep an eye on us in here. we get rowdy ya know. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Interesting...last 2 models out go from hosing everyone to my north and west (Euro) and now hosing everyone to my south and east. (NAM) Parts of NJ was modeled for 2' on the Euro only to see the NAM give them 1" in a span of 2 hours. Good luck mets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: just for you bud. JB thinks the 12z Euro Op is wrong & he still likes the track that I mentioned he outlined earlier with a storm riding up closer to the coast. Also, has anyone seen the 12z GFS 10 day snow map that includes this week's storm plus next weekend's storm?! It brings over 30 inches of Kuchera ratio snow to most of CTP. Sign me up for half of that & I'll call it a good way to end the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Eskimo Joe just cancelled the storm. So game on. That was who I was referring to. Boy, the personalities that I highlighted in my little "day in the life of Central PA weather" thread are sure showing themselves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It will be interesting to see how wrapped up the system gets as it intensifies off the mid-Atlantic coast. The 12z GFS has more interaction compared to the 12z Euro between the 500 mb low over the Great Lakes and the shortwave over the southeast, leading to a more intense system closer to the coast. As a result, the enhanced easterly 700 mb flow reaches farther inland and leads to stronger banded precip over eastern PA. We would have to watch the dry slot in this scenario given the stronger dry air intrusion that would occur with a more wrapped up system. In contrast, the 12z Euro has less interaction between the two 500 mb features and thus a weaker and farther east track. Most of the heavy precipitation depicted by that model occurs closer to the low pressure center than in the GFS depiction. I will be in the DC area for a conference during this event and thus in the strange position of rooting for the mid-Atlantic to get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: That was who I was referring to. Boy, the personalities that I highlighted in my little "day in the life of Central PA weather" thread are sure showing themselves... Dude...you really did kill it w/ a day in the life. I need to reread. Maybe during the snowstorm.....assuming there is one. Did i just type that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Call me crazy, but I want the NAM amped and juiced for several more runs. If it wasn't I would be a little more concerned. I think we are good for a decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, daxx said: Call me crazy, but I want the NAM amped and juiced for several more runs. If it wasn't I would be a little more concerned. I think we are good for a decent snowfall. Something to chew on over dinner. I know my food will taste better...for this meal anyway. its like they gave me the red pen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Mount Holly has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Berks and Chester counties (among others) down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 The snow weenie in me is certainly not a fan of what the Euro has been showing with it's evolution as it has represented the interior central being in the gradient zone as has seemed to be the standard for the big ones for the last I don't know how many winters. I'll always take any + snowfall, but it's mid March and I'm in go big or go home mode. Looking at the 12z model comparison today, I was kind of perplexed as to why the Euro was showing such a weakness in the precip shield. There wasn't that stark difference of the Euro keeping shortwaves separate while the GFS went full phase that there was 12z yesterday. The difference vs the GFS and especially the NAM is really noted on hour 66. The NAM is killing the region of central PA that the Euro has zero precip on that hour frame.... despite somewhat similar features. Though I will concede the NAM is noticeably more NW than the Euro. Still though, the more similar GFS hangs a much more robust precip shield between the Ohio Valley low and developing coastal.. giving everyone from the Pittsburgh thread to Philly a decent snowfall of varying amounts (heaviest in the east of course). Looking at 850mb gives a bit more clarity. GFS has a better anomalous 850mb u wind anomaly (easterly fetch) than the Euro does... getting -2 to -3 anomalies into a good portion of PA. The Euro's is much more compact, favoring more the I-95 corridor and not reaching into PA. Both have impressive fetches. I don't have that product for the NAM to look. Also, GFS and Euro seem to maintain two separate 850 mb lows through about hour 78, while the NAM consolidates the coastal one by hour 72 (right over Philly). Still the positioning is much further northwest of the GFS/Euro going up the coast. Guess I should also mention the Canadian, which was much better today but sort of had the look of the Euro in terms of the precip shield. So pretty much to sum all that up, is the NAM a bit too wound up and NW as per usual? Probably. However I don't think the Euro is portraying the precip shield very well either in the rest of PA outside the LSV given the presence of the Ohio Valley low. The low is placed in a good enough spot to hang the precip shield through PA as the low transfers. If I were to pick a good compromise off of 12z today I'd probably use the GFS and give heavier bias to GEFS on ensemble mean. I wouldn't consider even the NAM out of the realm of possibility though. Blizzard of 93 did have a point in mentioning about this storm not really having anything to push the storm out away from the coast, especially with the 500mb low dropping in pretty far to the west. More interaction certainly could yank the coastal inward. Also as mentioned from me yesterday... the ridge axis in the west is right in the traditional position for climo C-PA snowstorms To respond to the earlier Kuchera method discussion.. the Kuchera method uses the coldest temp of the thermal column from 500mb down to the surface and applies it to this equation and will calculate IF the p-type is snow. Quote T = maximum temp in lowest 500 mb (K) if T > 271.16 ratio = 12 + 2*(271.16 - T) else ratio = 12 + (271.16 - T) That's pretty much it, I don't believe it factors in the actual dynamic processes with snow growth. Ratios are hard to nail down as heavy_wx mentioned when you have that plus ground temps and snow rates with the sun angle this time of the year and etc. You could dynamically have 20:1 snow falling, but you may not realize that on the ground. I personally don't think Kuchera is a good method to use with borderline temp/column situations and it's more suited for storms with a much colder column. This storm looks okay from a temp standpoint. It should be a pretty cold one by March standards where the snow zone is... although with the presence of the 850 low in the Ohio Valley in some models the 850 temps aren't really overly impressive (degree or two either side of -5ºC). I think 10:1 maps are the better ones to use with this storm... but given decent cold both preceding and for the storm plus timing having a good portion of this event overnight I could get on board with using the CTP climo average of 12-13:1 for the regions that see the best banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Something to chew on over dinner. I know my food will taste better...for this meal anyway. its like they gave me the red pen! That IS the best map I've seen all week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Something to chew on over dinner. I know my food will taste better...for this meal anyway. its like they gave me the red pen! Love it. I don't know why there is not more collaboration between NWS offices when it comes to watches and warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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