WmsptWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: everyone is at least 14 inches. Nothing has ever summed the internet up quite so nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It would be so nice if the NAM did not go past 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Nothing has ever summed the internet up quite so nicely... 8 minutes ago, daxx said: It would be so nice if the NAM did not go past 36-48 hours. Are you guys saying my post was bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 v Voyager, was not directed at you at all. Just so many weenies fall apart over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nah, Voyager, mine was just a dick joke lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS looks different yet still gives us all good snow. 10" or so for MDT, but much drier overall it seems. Cashtown is bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS looks different yet still gives us all good snow. 10" or so for MDT, but much drier overall it seems. Cashtown is bullseye.I would quite happy with a 8" - 12" area wide snowfall Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I would quite happy with a 8" - 12" area wide snowfall Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro No doubt! Any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I think the takeaway over the last 24 hours is that the eastern 2/3 of the state is starting to look like a favorable region for 8-14" of snow. models continue to vacillate but we consistently have been in favorable area w/ little mixing. I think as we get into tomorrow, we may see uptick as less intrusion from ULL (as seems to be the trend this morning) will let the priimary come up the coast and gain strength. At 12z it has gone from 994 to 991mb east of DE. a couple more runs/ticks in this evolution could make this a good one. Track is great and ULL stays back over western pa and should help, but not hinder as currently depicted. If the Euro holds serve, I think we can start thinking about narrowing goalposts tonight. I think the whole subforum will by and large be winners at varying depths, but my confidence is growing...as are the bags under my eyes. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I think the takeaway over the last 24 hours is that the eastern 2/3 of the state is starting to look like a favorable region for 8-14" of snow. models continue to vacillate but we consistently have been in favorable area w/ little mixing. I think as we get into tomorrow, we may see uptick as less intrusion from ULL (as seems to be the trend this morning) will let the priimary come up the coast and gain strength. At 12z it has gone from 994 to 991mb east of DE. a couple more runs/ticks in this evolution could make this a good one. Track is great and ULL stays back over western pa and should help, but not hinder as currently depicted. If the Euro holds serve, I think we can start thinking about narrowing goalposts tonight. I think the whole subforum will by and large be winners at varying depths, but my confidence is growing...as are the bags under my eyes. Nut I agree Nut. Yesterday at work (with all of those miserable people) I was telling folks that right now, I'd go with 6"-12" with the potential for a bit more. Sometimes even I can be guilty of looking at maps with pretty colors days in advance and start thinking that's what is going to happen...and when the inevitable model shifting starts happening people get themselves all worked up. This is looking like a significant to a major snowfall. Could it be more than that? Yes. Should we expect it? I'm not. But I'm sure as heck hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks like around 1.4" qpf total down here in Lancaster. That will git 'er dun if all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks like around 1.4" qpf total down here in Lancaster. That will git 'er dun if all snow. Nice max in area.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I agree Nut. Yesterday at work (with all of those miserable people) I was telling folks that right now, I'd go with 6"-12" with the potential for a bit more. Sometimes even I can be guilty of looking at maps with pretty colors days in advance and start thinking that's what is going to happen...and when the inevitable model shifting starts happening people get themselves all worked up. This is looking like a significant to a major snowfall. Could it be more than that? Yes. Should we expect it? I'm not. But I'm sure as heck hoping. I'm w/ ya. To my eyes, there still is upside potential as when they hold a storm like this, they often juice up as we get inside 48. I think its possible. On the other hand, anymore interaction, or less dig w/ primary, and lower side of goalposts becomes likely. Regardless, a good chance at a really nice event looms closer. Would be fun to see some of the bigger totals start popping back up tonight or tomorrow morning. Tracking a legit threat is just what the doc ordered. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z GFS has second storm next weekend. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 And to think we'll be getting this storm with late September sun angle equivalent. That being the case, roads should clear off quick so disruption should be much less than typical with such a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm w/ ya. To my eyes, there still is upside potential as when they hold a storm like this, they often juice up as we get inside 48. I think its possible. On the other hand, anymore interaction, or less dig w/ primary, and lower side of goalposts becomes likely. Regardless, a good chance at a really nice event looms closer. Would be fun to see some of the bigger totals start popping back up tonight or tomorrow morning. Tracking a legit threat is just what the doc ordered. Nut IF this comes to fruition, we need to name this storm after Nut. He has been most enthusiastic.Also, the HPC wording on this storm is EPIC!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm w/ ya. To my eyes, there still is upside potential as when they hold a storm like this, they often juice up as we get inside 48. I think its possible. On the other hand, anymore interaction, or less dig w/ primary, and lower side of goalposts becomes likely. Regardless, a good chance at a really nice event looms closer. Would be fun to see some of the bigger totals start popping back up tonight or tomorrow morning. Tracking a legit threat is just what the doc ordered. Nut The 12z GFS Kuchera ratio snow totals for this event range from 10-18 inches across most of CTP. It brought 13 inches of snow to Harrisburg & 18 to Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, paweather said: 12z GFS has second storm next weekend. LOL. I have been keeping an eye on that one as well. It has been showing on the GEFS & EPS too, which has caused a bump in snow totals by the end of their runs for the last few days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Pic says it all..... Drops the mic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, Superstorm said: IF this comes to fruition, we need to name this storm after Nut. He has been most enthusiastic. Also, the HPC wording on this storm is EPIC! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Thx buddy. I appreciate the kind words. As much as I'd be honored I wouldnt give a flyin rats @ss what we name this pig. Lets just keep up the mojo and land this one... Would be good for many souls. Having fun in here no matter the outcome (cause I think there will be some notable outcome ) Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm w/ ya. To my eyes, there still is upside potential as when they hold a storm like this, they often juice up as we get inside 48. I think its possible. On the other hand, anymore interaction, or less dig w/ primary, and lower side of goalposts becomes likely. Regardless, a good chance at a really nice event looms closer. Would be fun to see some of the bigger totals start popping back up tonight or tomorrow morning. Tracking a legit threat is just what the doc ordered. Nut I dont know...the totals look pretty big to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Also, the HPC wording on this storm is EPIC! Keep talkin dirty brother..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So whats the consensus? Kuchera or 10:1 = Whats more realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, 2001kx said: I dont know...the totals look pretty big to me? clear cache pal. thats 0z........ but to your point.....yeah that'd do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: clear cache pal. thats 0z........ but to your point.....yeah that'd do. Ahhhh i see it now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, 2001kx said: So whats the consensus? Kuchera or 10:1 = Whats more realistic? I "think" 10;1 is just a standard ratio, whereas Kuchera takes into consideration thermal profiles, growth rates, and other parameters that a standard 10:1 doesn't. Hopefully one of the mets comes on and explains it in better detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, 2001kx said: So whats the consensus? Kuchera or 10:1 = Whats more realistic? From what I know Kuchera factors in all precip types into snow totals 10:1 algorithm calculates all frozen as snow. If that's incorrect, ona you smart guys can correct me..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Ahhhh i see it now.. If Euro holds serve.....y'all may need to come down here and restrain me....... Just sayin' This one is a big run as the little bit of divergence this morning has some thinkin bout ledges in the MA forum. Euro could ease a lot of souls. So far GFS went from 994 to 991 of DE coast UKI is at 988 at same location track is rather optimal for us. T- 30 till we know..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, 2001kx said: So whats the consensus? Kuchera or 10:1 = Whats more realistic? I've seen a lot of references to the Kuchera snow ratio, but there's nothing published about so I have no idea if it is an improvement over 10:1 or not. Forecasting snow ratio is difficult because you have to account for snow growth, aggregation, riming, and melting throughout the atmosphere as ice particles fall to the ground. Probably the easiest way to estimate snow-liquid ratio is to start with climo, adjust upward if there is a favorable region for dendritic growth, adjust downward if temperatures are colder than -20 degrees C or warmer than -12 degrees C throughout the profile, and adjust downward if there is any part of the profile close to freezing. Here is a map of snow-liquid ratio climatology for the US: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If Euro holds serve.....y'all may need to come down here and restrain me....... Just sayin' This one is a big run as the little bit of divergence this morning has some thinkin bout ledges in the MA forum. Euro could ease a lot of souls. So far GFS went from 994 to 991 of DE coast UKI is at 988 at same location track is rather optimal for us. T- 30 till we know..... Nut As long as its west and not east im ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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