MAG5035 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, paweather said: got to agree with you this. If this was a slow mover 1993 ish....this is feet not a foot. 0z NAM is again 12-18". I'd be more than happy to be slammed with a good 12-18" storm. I haven't had over a foot in a storm here since 2010 (about 11" with the big one last year where the 18"+ was only 10 miles away). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM is a shellacking....I know, not to be trusted at this range.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I'd be more than happy to be slammed with a good 12-18" storm. I haven't had over a foot in a storm here since 2010 (about 11" with the big one last year where the 18"+ was only 10 miles away). yes I agree :-) I just wish this wasn't all overnight so I didn't have to stay up all night for it since I will be so tired staying up for the model runs. Good luck Mag and thanks so much for your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 44 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Don't you worry about what I'm drinking on Saturday night, son. I'm good to go lol hehehe. I thought the same thing. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: NAM did pretty well with last year's blizzard. (I think) yes....it did. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The NAM wasn't even done with CTP at the end of its 84 hour run. Hopefully it leads the way just like it did last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 50 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: NAM did pretty well with last year's blizzard. (I think) NAM was spouting 28" totals for MDT 48 hrs before. Everyone said it was wayyy overdone as the Euro and GFS had 8-14". MDT recorded 30.2". So yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, canderson said: NAM was spouting 28" totals for MDT 48 hrs before. Everyone said it was wayyy overdone as the Euro and GFS had 8-14". MDT recorded 30.2". So yeah. Funny how some forgot that. Mid atlantic thread is bashing away. I understand the skill scores, but to blatantly dismiss is also not warranted. Its a tool in the weather shed. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, canderson said: NAM was spouting 28" totals for MDT 48 hrs before. Everyone said it was wayyy overdone as the Euro and GFS had 8-14". MDT recorded 30.2". So yeah. I was thinking it had upwards of 35"-40" for somewhere close to us. Not necessarily MDT, but I'm pretty sure it had somewhere (maybe around South Mountain?) over 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, maytownpawx said: I was thinking it had upwards of 35"-40" for somewhere close to us. Not necessarily MDT, but I'm pretty sure it had somewhere (maybe around South Mountain?) over 3'. at one point, yes it did. right arounc 40". corrected inside 36 and faired pretty well. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 0z GFS is if I need to say it another crusher. A very respected Met Larry Crosgrove needs to soon get on board. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 hr 90 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, paweather said: 0z GFS is if I need to say it another crusher. A very respected Met Larry Crosgrove needs to soon get on board. ;-) I cannot wait to see weenie snow maps. I sit between 16 and 23......and its still snowing. I'd think the western shield would be more expansive as well. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm not staying up for the Euro. All models are within like 30 miles of one another now. GFS holds serve, hits all of us hard. 18" or so verbatim for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 hr 96 Keep it coming Really wish we were 12hrs out and awaiting flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm sleeping on it as well. Nice uptick, and absolutely perfect track. Its just perfect. Hope the Euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 72 more hours to go. I feel like I've been watching this for an eternity already. Upside is a lot of snow for my son to shovel next week. Downside is if it misses he switches out my shovel for his Easton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: 72 more hours to go. I feel like I've been watching this for an eternity already. Upside is a lot of snow for my son to shovel next week. Downside is if it misses he switches out my shovel for his Easton. It's more like 60 hours actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, 2001kx said: hr 96 Keep it coming Really wish we were 12hrs out and awaiting flakes. Very Nice! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 That 00Z GFS is a Central PA Forum Special.All cash in!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 At this point the only downside to this storm is that I'll be in Bloomsburg Monday through Wednesday, and won't see it in my own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Very Nice! :-) kx's map is pertier than mine..... plus it shows a much better qpf distribution into central/western pa. full out shelllackin for all. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 If this comes to fruition the radar image of moisture plume will be insane. Much larger than than the recent big storms' precip shield, reaching back west of Columbus even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, canderson said: If this comes to fruition the radar image of moisture plume will be insane. Much larger than than the recent big storms' precip shield, reaching back west of Columbus even. Yep...that was what I was implying when looking at pivotal vs TT. NW quad qpf w/ a storm track like this is often under modeled. Will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Night all. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Canadian came back west but not enough for just about any of us. I95 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Canadian came back west but not enough for just about any of us. I95 special. who cares about the CMC. really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 After looking at the cmc in detail, I'm tossing it. It's really far north with the ns low and it even becomes detached from the vort digging down. That's a total outlier. Because the low is so far n, there is no interaction with the southern low. That why the precip field is so far east. If there was any support for that outcome I would consider it but there is none right now. That's from the man Bob Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, paweather said: who cares about the CMC. really? Not necessarily me, but it's a part of guidance and I shared some info. The noteworthy thing is it started coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Not necessarily me, but it's a part of guidance and I shared some info. The noteworthy thing is it started coming back. Good info....Yes, a possible trend. Or moving towards other guidance.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Even if the main snow shield with the coastal low misses you to the east (still way too early to call that), the upper air low coming in behind and primary low should give a long period of lighter to moderate snow that could add up to a good amount, probably over 6". That's an intense low coming down from Canada that looks like it will lag behind the coastal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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