Voyager Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Serious question for red taggers, there is a noticeable light spot taking up most of Lycoming county on seemingly every accumulation model map no matter the storm. Is there a scientific reason for this or is it a naturally bad spot for storms? 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: can not resist......... It's your anti snow shield that you installed deflecting any snow from your locall. I'm sorry.............. Nutsy Laugh all you want, nut, and I know it's all in good fun, but I've noticed that same thing in my locale as well. No matter what direction a storm comes from, and no matter who gets bombed, there is a dip (or rise) in the gradient (on the models) around Schuylkill County putting us in lighter accumulations than areas to our south, north, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z GFS is crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, paweather said: 18z GFS is crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'll take that 18z for $100 Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Oh my.... so that's 4 straight runs of a region wide 12-18+ from the GFS. Gonna be a fun few days tracking this beast. Hopefully we can all cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS with a slight trend to the Euro. I'm loving the 500 and 700 mb depiction on guidance right now. It's superb for basically everyone in the subforum. This system will be very juiced up with the orientation of the trough axis and precip field will explode through Monday evening into Tuesday. The moisture plume off the Atlantic will be amazing. I can already picture the satellite imagery. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 So on the last 2 runs, has the timing changed much, or are we still Monday evening through Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: So on the last 2 runs, has the timing changed much, or are we still Monday evening through Tuesday? Pretty much bud. Plan away Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 In this area, it seems like the major storms are sniffed out by the models 3-5 days out. Have a feeling this is another. What happens if this thing overachieves, and somewhere gets 30 inches like last year? "Oh, we finished at average, but, again, all in one shot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 We sit quite well here if it bobbles east or closer to the coast. Good location to be at. Now just think of this was a slow mover, instead of lasting 10-14 hrs only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Also wtf wind. Just had a 49 mph gust after steady mid 20s. This wasn't expected I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Had about 3" this morning, which is now shrunk up a bit and patchy with the strong afternoon sun. Temps are now falling back into the 20s. Had to drive my mom up to State College for work since her car was totaled from the big pileup last week and she's not ready to tackle snow or the threat of squalls just yet after that (thanks for everyone's concern last week by the way). At any rate it looked like parts of State College received a bit more than here, especially the Pine Grove Mill's side. There was pretty decent blowing and drifting across Route 45 in spots down to the Centre/Huntingdon County line. As good as the Euro looks this afternoon, it still doesn't phase as cleanly as the 12z or 18z GFS does. With 12z GFS vs Euro, you can note the two separate shortwaves pretty much through the whole storm passage with the Euro. The GFS already looks phased in by about hour 90. The GFS overall seems like it has been much more robust with the northern stream shortwave The implications are probably more significant for the central and western thirds of PA. The Euro puts things to the coastal quickly, while the GFS with the stronger northern stream wave transfers a more notable low from the Ohio Valley which helps hang the precip shield across the whole state vs heavily favoring the south central and eastern portions in the case of the Euro. Like I said last night, it's weird to see the GFS being the more NW of the two models. Couple illustrations below, I also noted the position of the western ridge axis, which is right through Boise, ID.. one of the classic C-PA snowstorm indicators. 12z Euro 90 hours 12z GFS 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I do think there could be more of a move westward if GFS is right.Climatology favors also.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I do think there could be more of a move westward if GFS is right. Climatology favors also. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That'd mean my area would get more snowfall which is basically impossible since 2010. Btw here's the 18z GEFS for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's going to be a fun weekend of tracking ! Who's staying up for the Euro tonight ? By the way, how did MDT only come up with .9 inches of snow today when nearby reports from all around in each direction had 2-3 inches? I realize it didn't stick to the roads, but most other surfaces got more than .9 today in that area in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It's going to be a fun weekend of tracking ! Who's staying up for the Euro tonight ? By the way, how did MDT only come up with .9 inches of snow today when nearby reports from all around in each direction had 2-3 inches? I realize it didn't stick to the roads, but most other surfaces got more than .9 today in that area in my opinion. The board at MDT is actually just the accumulated snow/ice that is on the left wing of the airplane that lands closest to 10:37 AM. Today's lucky winner was an Allegiant 727 out of Ft. Lauderdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: The board at MDT is actually just the accumulated snow/ice that is on the left wing of the airplane that lands closest to 10:37 AM. Today's lucky winner was an Allegiant 727 out of Ft. Lauderdale. I care about all you guys so I'll post it. DO NOT FLY ALLEGIANT. They aren't safe. Seriously spend the extra money and don't risk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, canderson said: I care about all you guys so I'll post it. DO NOT FLY ALLEGIANT. They aren't safe. Seriously spend the extra money and don't risk it. I once flew Allegiant. The duct tape holding the plane together was fun to look at, but it was fraying, so the noise was a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 when does the next set of models come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 27 minutes ago, Rickg2 said: when does the next set of models come out? I'm making coffee and waiting the 2 AM run of royalty. GFS, I believe is around 10ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Is it me, or is the NAM coming out slow tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'm making coffee and waiting the 2 AM run of royalty. GFS, I believe is around 10ish. Speaking of model times... guess when DST starts? Tomorrow night. Might need to spike that coffee with something to stay awake for the Euro after tonight haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Speaking of model times... guess when DST starts? Tomorrow night. Might need to spike that coffee with something to stay awake for the Euro after tonight haha. Don't you worry about what I'm drinking on Saturday night, son. I'm good to go lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, Voyager said: Is it me, or is the NAM coming out slow tonight? You know it'll show some wonky solution where Georgia gets snow and we torch. NAM had its one shining moment last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Don't you worry about what I'm drinking on Saturday night, son. I'm good to go lol Hahaha wasn't worried at all. 17 minutes ago, canderson said: You know it'll show some wonky solution where Georgia gets snow and we torch. NAM had its one shining moment last January. Pretty safe to say the way to far out range of the 0z NAM is on board with regards to most other guidance on throttling C-PA. Some parts of south-central PA are NAMed at 78 and 81 with back to back .5-.75" frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM did pretty well with last year's blizzard. (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It's going to be a fun weekend of tracking ! Who's staying up for the Euro tonight ? By the way, how did MDT only come up with .9 inches of snow today when nearby reports from all around in each direction had 2-3 inches? I realize it didn't stick to the roads, but most other surfaces got more than .9 today in that area in my opinion. There really was almost nothing in Harrisburg city so it's very much possible - urban heat island effect had temps just warmer than surrounding area enough that it then was all gone by afternoon. Driving home earlier I didn't see any snow until I got close to I-81 - I'm just north of I-81 and I have snow cover still. the one depressing part about tracking this system next week is that model runs (especially euro) come in an hour later after the time change like mag is referencing :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: NAM did pretty well with last year's blizzard. (I think) NAM won last year's blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The NAM pretty much throttles Central PA at the end of the run. Hour 84 has the Harrisburg area around 1.6' qpf. It looks like a fast mover though. Back edge of the precip is already past Hagerstown and Greencastle by 7 to 8 am on the 14th. Unless it pivots and fills in, that's a hell of a dryslot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 hours ago, canderson said: We sit quite well here if it bobbles east or closer to the coast. Good location to be at. Now just think of this was a slow mover, instead of lasting 10-14 hrs only. got to agree with you this. If this was a slow mover 1993 ish....this is feet not a foot. 0z NAM is again 12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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