Central PA - March 2017

[MAG5035]

Fresh thread to get us through this potential active period of winter weather. 

The pattern's gonna have to prove it to me that it can suppress a snowstorm south of PA. It's only really happened with that one Jan storm that snowed on the Carolina's and VA this winter. Otherwise, it's def about the best look we've had pattern wise. 500 heights on model guidance show a pretty broad and flat western ridge and a 50/50ish type low for the period in question. Confluence and a sharper cutoff to any precip shield would figure to be in play, but the flat western ridge and really.. an overall mostly flat 500mb pattern across most of the country (with normal heights in most of the eastern third of the US) would suggest to me at the moment that the storm track doesn't suppress too much. I just don't see the amplification in the pattern to drive a major eastern trough and the readily available cold air much below the Mason-Dixon. I think it looks good for us. I can hardly worry about suppression at this juncture because a couple days ago models were yanking everything well nw of PA. 

[anotherman]

Sounds good. I hope you're right.

[Itstrainingtime]

42 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Fresh thread to get us through this potential active period of winter weather. 

The pattern's gonna have to prove it to me that it can suppress a snowstorm south of PA. It's only really happened with that one Jan storm that snowed on the Carolina's and VA this winter. Otherwise, it's def about the best look we've had pattern wise. 500 heights on model guidance show a pretty broad and flat western ridge and a 50/50ish type low for the period in question. Confluence and a sharper cutoff to any precip shield would figure to be in play, but the flat western ridge and really.. an overall mostly flat 500mb pattern across most of the country (with normal heights in most of the eastern third of the US) would suggest to me at the moment that the storm track doesn't suppress too much. I just don't see the amplification in the pattern to drive a major eastern trough and the readily available cold air much below the Mason-Dixon. I think it looks good for us. I can hardly worry about suppression at this juncture because a couple days ago models were yanking everything well nw of PA. 

Thank you for that post. Makes sense to me. Like anotherman said, I sure hope you're right too. 

[Voyager]

Strange look to the snowfall coverage, but still one that I've seen many times. The swath of snow looks like it's taking a great trajectory into eastern PA, but then hits a wall and drops south into the mid-Atlantic. You can see it on the 18z GFS clearly as the 6"+ gradient runs from southwest to northeast across Ohio and into western PA, then abruptly dives south and follows the PA Turnpike, leaving NEPA somewhat on the outside looking in I don't want to be too much of a "Debbie Downer", but this has happened quite a bit over the past decade or so.

In the case of the 18z GFS, I end up with my dreaded 2" nuisance that I post so much that I hate...

[MillvilleWx]

Reposting my thoughts from other thread. No changes after seeing the 18z GFS.

The pattern is looking pretty formidable with regard to getting snow over the area. A lot of people are honking on the weekend threat, as we should to a degree, but there's a threat right before that, that could see some decent accumulation on Friday. Quick moving shortwave will dive southeast out of the northern plains with weak low pressure developing along the thermal gradient created from a nosing wedge of Arctic high pressure advancing from the Northern Rockies and Canada. The intense thermal gradient from the warm wedge to the south and arctic air advecting across the Plains and into the Eastern US would create a nice stripe of precip moving west to east as the low rides along the boundary. One rule of thumb is fresh arctic air masses will almost always lead to snowfall development due to the depth of the cold air forcing warmer air ahead of it as it moves into the region. Add an organized area of low pressure to the mix, and you could see a nice swath of snowfall falling on the cold side of the gradient and north of the 700mb vort where lift is maximized. GFS is currently showing a pressing boundary from the north on Thursday evening, leading to the entire state on the cold side of the gradient with weak low pressure sliding underneath around Central VA. 700mb vort pass across the same area as well, leading to expanding area of precip across the Ohio Valley, tracking to the east. Pending how far south the baroclinic boundary can setup will determine who gets what with regard to snow accumulations, so something to watch prior to any storm potential over the weekend.

The weekend deal is still a ways away, but the signal for robust, west based NAO blocking regime with several shortwave pulses riding down from the Northern Plains, southeast toward the Tennessee Valley and area confluence to the north would lead to a potentially active pattern with snow being the primary precip threat due to blocked Canadian high pressures roaming across southern Canada. Personally, looking at this pattern, I'd be more wary of sheared disturbances and treks too far to the south than anything too far north due to the forecasted confluence over the NE. With a robust blocking pattern, systems are forced underneath and will not be able to move northward with such a stout surface ridge depiction over Quebec which is locked in due to the setup over Greenland. It's an enticing pattern, but one that should heed caution for the time being as models get a better handle on numerous shortwave pulses diving into the CONUS. One things for sure, it looks cold no matter what for the weekend and will be down right frigid if a storm were to materialize with fresh snow cover and high pressure moving in behind the potential weekend disturbance. March is the new January I suppose. 



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[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GEFS still has CTP with amounts in the 5-6 inch range through the end of Sunday. The jackpot zone is split between the best hits to the north or south of the MD line.

We still have a few days until the the final track & exact strength of the block is determined. I like where we stand in CTP at this range.

Some of our best storms over the years looked like they would miss us to the south, but then ended up putting us in the jackpot zone. Also, even if we are on the northern end of the good precip, we should have good snow ratios to help us out with the cold that is forecast to be in place.

Let's see what 0z brings us tonight ?

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GEFS still has CTP with amounts in the 5-6 inch range through the end of Sunday. The jackpot zone is split between the best hits to the north or south of the MD line.

We still have a few days until the the final track & exact strength of the block is determined. I like where we stand in CTP at this range.

Some of our best storms over the years looked like they would miss us to the south, but then ended up putting us in the jackpot zone. Also, even if we are on the northern end of the good precip, we should have good snow ratios to help us out with the cold that is forecast to be in place.

Let's see what 0z brings us tonight ?

I agree with all of this. As if now we do sit in a favorable spot based on zonal look at this time.

I caution that we may "lose" these for a while before the come back Wednesday/Thursday...depending on the threat. Not sure how we can escape all 3 and with some luck we snow on snow...on snow.  I'm gonna watch as I'm all in but fully expect a short stay at heartbreak hotel in the next 48 hrs  

nut  

. 

[pasnownut]

Extrapolating beyond 84 hrs looks like the 0z NAM would be I80 south with general 2-4" from storm #1. Good start for the night as I expected it to be a Mason Dixon special. 

Nut. 

[canderson]

0z GFS is way south bad seens weaker - jackpot near Virginia/NC border.

Long way out. 

[Jns2183]

0z GFS is way south bad seens weaker - jackpot near Virginia/NC border.

Long way out. 

Wasn't the NAM the only model showing big snows with last years storm until inside 48 hours?


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[sauss06]

8 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Extrapolating beyond 84 hrs looks like the 0z NAM would be I80 south with general 2-4" from storm #1. Good start for the night as I expected it to be a Mason Dixon special. 

Nut. 

Are we calling Fridays potential Storm 1?

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Are we calling Fridays potential Storm 1?

 

15 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Are we calling Fridays potential Storm 1?

Yessir.  

Storm 2 is sat/sun  

storm 3 Tuesday 

6z giofus looks better than 0z for 1

still some work to do fr #2 tho

Nut

[WmsptWx]

Three chances and do we see anything?

[canderson]

15 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Reposting my thoughts from other thread. No changes after seeing the 18z GFS.

The pattern is looking pretty formidable with regard to getting snow over the area. A lot of people are honking on the weekend threat, as we should to a degree, but there's a threat right before that, that could see some decent accumulation on Friday. Quick moving shortwave will dive southeast out of the northern plains with weak low pressure developing along the thermal gradient created from a nosing wedge of Arctic high pressure advancing from the Northern Rockies and Canada. The intense thermal gradient from the warm wedge to the south and arctic air advecting across the Plains and into the Eastern US would create a nice stripe of precip moving west to east as the low rides along the boundary. One rule of thumb is fresh arctic air masses will almost always lead to snowfall development due to the depth of the cold air forcing warmer air ahead of it as it moves into the region. Add an organized area of low pressure to the mix, and you could see a nice swath of snowfall falling on the cold side of the gradient and north of the 700mb vort where lift is maximized. GFS is currently showing a pressing boundary from the north on Thursday evening, leading to the entire state on the cold side of the gradient with weak low pressure sliding underneath around Central VA. 700mb vort pass across the same area as well, leading to expanding area of precip across the Ohio Valley, tracking to the east. Pending how far south the baroclinic boundary can setup will determine who gets what with regard to snow accumulations, so something to watch prior to any storm potential over the weekend.

The weekend deal is still a ways away, but the signal for robust, west based NAO blocking regime with several shortwave pulses riding down from the Northern Plains, southeast toward the Tennessee Valley and area confluence to the north would lead to a potentially active pattern with snow being the primary precip threat due to blocked Canadian high pressures roaming across southern Canada. Personally, looking at this pattern, I'd be more wary of sheared disturbances and treks too far to the south than anything too far north due to the forecasted confluence over the NE. With a robust blocking pattern, systems are forced underneath and will not be able to move northward with such a stout surface ridge depiction over Quebec which is locked in due to the setup over Greenland. It's an enticing pattern, but one that should heed caution for the time being as models get a better handle on numerous shortwave pulses diving into the CONUS. One things for sure, it looks cold no matter what for the weekend and will be down right frigid if a storm were to materialize with fresh snow cover and high pressure moving in behind the potential weekend disturbance. March is the new January I suppose. 



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I tend to think you're right. I can see Storm 1 grazing us, Storm 2 missing us south but Storm 3 hitting us. That's where I'd put my money today, at least.

[paweather]

Nice little 6 hour snow event Friday on the 12z NAM.

[Itstrainingtime]

We've been mired in a horrific slump all season and now we're facing Kershaw over the next 7-10 days. Our odds of going 0-3 seem to be increasing...maybe we can scrape together a couple of infield singles in this pattern? 

My concern with Friday has to do more about temps than anything else. I have a feeling it's going to be situation of can the temps drop quick enough with the onset of precip. We'll see. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

We've been mired in a horrific slump all season and now we're facing Kershaw over the next 7-10 days. Our odds of going 0-3 seem to be increasing...maybe we can scrape together a couple of infield singles in this pattern? 

My concern with Friday has to do more about temps than anything else. I have a feeling it's going to be situation of can the temps drop quick enough with the onset of precip. We'll see. 

verbatim as per 12z Nam, temp profile looks decent.   700/850's good enough.  2m air temp has dropped 40-50miles south of 6z @ hr 75 and ticks south as precip moves through.  Snow paste and hopefully some cold powder Sunday.  We'll find out soon enough.  

Despite the challenges, its still the best pattern we've had all year...so at least we have that.

Nut

[Santa Clause]

Nice rainy day today. Has enjoyable early spring feel to it.

[WmsptWx]

Part of the game is luck. We simply do not have any. Strikeout to end the season awaits.

[Voyager]

12z GFS says congrats Raleigh for storm #2...lol

[MillvilleWx]

39 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

We've been mired in a horrific slump all season and now we're facing Kershaw over the next 7-10 days. Our odds of going 0-3 seem to be increasing...maybe we can scrape together a couple of infield singles in this pattern? 

My concern with Friday has to do more about temps than anything else. I have a feeling it's going to be situation of can the temps drop quick enough with the onset of precip. We'll see. 

If the NAM is right (Long range NAM at that, oyyy) the vort pass and 700VV's look pretty good for Lancaster county. Thermal profiles look solid as well with a swift CAA by the morning. The flip would be quick and it could snow nicely given the forecast depiction. My concern would be, how much will lay for accumulation as opposed to whether it be snow or not. With the luck we've had this year, I'd be more cautious expecting anything more than a few inches around Rt 30 to to the north. Of course, further north you go, the better. I like the Laurels and up near State College and I-80 corridor again with this one. Something tells me areas like Clearfield and State College might be the winners again. MAG country ain't looking too shabby either. 

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If the NAM is right (Long range NAM at that, oyyy) the vort pass and 700VV's look pretty good for Lancaster county. Thermal profiles look solid as well with a swift CAA by the morning. The flip would be quick and it could snow nicely given the forecast depiction. My concern would be, how much will lay for accumulation as opposed to whether it be snow or not. With the luck we've had this year, I'd be more cautious expecting anything more than a few inches around Rt 30 to to the north. Of course, further north you go, the better. I like the Laurels and up near State College and I-80 corridor again with this one. Something tells me areas like Clearfield and State College might be the winners again. MAG country ain't looking too shabby either. 

Yep, I 76 to I 80 special.  and thats all we can hang our hat on.....for now.

Just hope it stays cold, as Sunday looks great.....for VA.  

I still expect a northern correction ( a bit yet for stom #1 as well), and like I stated in the MA forum, am concerned that if things go all wrong, I could be too far south for #1 and too far north for #2.  

Well I pushed all my chips in and borrowed some, so I've got everything to lose...

I hope for the outside curve ball to have storm #2 come north, but just dont see it.  We finally get a block and it pushes everything south...until the pattern relaxes and them I'm guessing we'll go back to cutterville.    

I'm starting to look for the checkout line......

Nut

Edit -  I'm sittin perty for #3.......

Good Lord I'm a masochist.

 

 

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yep, I 76 to I 80 special.  and thats all we can hang our hat on.....for now.

Just hope it stays cold, as Sunday looks great.....for VA.  

I still expect a northern correction ( a bit yet for stom #1 as well), and like I stated in the MA forum, am concerned that if things go all wrong, I could be too far south for #1 and too far north for #2.  

Well I pushed all my chips in and borrowed some, so I've got everything to lose...

I hope for the outside curve ball to have storm #2 come north, but just dont see it.  We finally get a block and it pushes everything south...until the pattern relaxes and them I'm guessing we'll go back to cutterville.    

I'm starting to look for the checkout line......

Nut

 

 

 

 

It's been the most brutal weather that I can remember. We seem to be in the proverbial snow hole for the season, and we may not shake it this go around. If the shortwave can start coming in a bit more robust for the weekend, then the north trend will likely occur, but it would take an awful lot of correction to get it up your way I'm afraid to say. I personally think it stays south of me in all honesty. The synoptic setup is actually not too bad, but you can't throw something that weak at something as powerful as this block is forecasted to develop and expect anything other than suppression city. Oh well, I've learned to just take defeat at this point. Bring on spring!! Hiking, baseball, beach and cookouts. Which btw, I'm still down for the get together   

[canderson]

The Canadian kills CPA with a foot of snow it looks like. Too bad it's basically never correct.

One issue I see with that GFS run that's in western Carolina is weak vort and strong confluence. I don't see how it can move hundreds and hundreds of miles north enough to get any of us in the game with those two in play.

I think the storm after the storm after the storm is our best chance.

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's been the most brutal weather that I can remember. We seem to be in the proverbial snow hole for the season, and we may not shake it this go around. If the shortwave can start coming in a bit more robust for the weekend, then the north trend will likely occur, but it would take an awful lot of correction to get it up your way I'm afraid to say. I personally think it stays south of me in all honesty. The synoptic setup is actually not too bad, but you can't throw something that weak at something as powerful as this block is forecasted to develop and expect anything other than suppression city. Oh well, I've learned to just take defeat at this point. Bring on spring!! Hiking, baseball, beach and cookouts. Which btw, I'm still down for the get together   

Agreed bud....especially the first part. 

If the vort for Sunday gets a little more robust we may have something but I'd actually take 1-2" light snow for #2 and run as that's a  it stretch as currently depicted.  

#3 looks better......today. Not seeing a shutout and it's still our best shot but it's soo much work to get a region wide event. I'm worn out.

I too am in for a GTG. Would love to meet some great folks/minds. And drink a beer r 2. Let's make something happen.  Just not in spring cause I'll still be bitter as hell and will still be in rehab. 

Nut.  

[sauss06]

34 minutes ago, canderson said:

The Canadian kills CPA with a foot of snow it looks like. Too bad it's basically never correct.

One issue I see with that GFS run that's in western Carolina is weak vort and strong confluence. I don't see how it can move hundreds and hundreds of miles north enough to get any of us in the game with those two in play.

I think the storm after the storm after the storm is our best chance.

damn, thats deep. And True 

[MillvilleWx]

40 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed bud....especially the first part. 

If the vort for Sunday gets a little more robust we may have something but I'd actually take 1-2" light snow for #2 and run as that's a  it stretch as currently depicted.  

#3 looks better......today. Not seeing a shutout and it's still our best shot but it's soo much work to get a region wide event. I'm worn out.

I too am in for a GTG. Would love to meet some great folks/minds. And drink a beer r 2. Let's make something happen.  Just not in spring cause I'll still be bitter as hell and will still be in rehab. 

Nut.  

I think you might be able to get that 1-2" on Friday. At least it will look like winter. I'm not putting my eggs in the #2 basket at all. I just don't like the trends. I haven't dove in too much for #3, but I could see how that gains more steam in the coming days, especially if #2 continues to come in weaker. More energy left behind. I'd watch how models handle the energy into Texas for the weekend. CMC holds it together better and allows the diving vort to interact with it, leading to low development in the Gulf. That idea is on the table, but not favored at this time. We shall see. 

And as far as the get together goes, I'm game for some late spring or summer time fun. I love meeting new people and what better way than cold drinks and good food? Perfect combo!

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think you might be able to get that 1-2" on Friday. At least it will look like winter. I'm not putting my eggs in the #2 basket at all. I just don't like the trends. I haven't dove in too much for #3, but I could see how that gains more steam in the coming days, especially if #2 continues to come in weaker. More energy left behind. I'd watch how models handle the energy into Texas for the weekend. CMC holds it together better and allows the diving vort to interact with it, leading to low development in the Gulf. That idea is on the table, but not favored at this time. We shall see. 

And as far as the get together goes, I'm game for some late spring or summer time fun. I love meeting new people and what better way than cold drinks and good food? Perfect combo!

I'm with ya on all counts.

#2 as with the trends appears doa for PA (although as much movement as weve seen in the last couple days, I guess i'm still waiting for the outside curve ball. 

CMC for next week....yay (couldnt find smaller font for yay).

If its right....maybe its my sign to move to Canada.....Quebec....georgous country.

Nut

 

[pasnownut]

GEM and CMC trolling us hardcore for next Tuesday.

Someone please take hold of the wheel on the snow train.  I've not been doing so well.

Get this one home for us.  

[paweather]

I'm more intrigued with Friday. Looks like a good couple of inches for us. Might start as rain.