March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Can you be absolutely certain that this is going to bust, however? I agree that it is likely way overdone, but don't think 4", at least, is out of the question for the GTA.

Side note also. The map zoomed in on the northeast is Kuchera ratios, the expanded west map is a 10-1 ratio map.

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

If that is the case, then lower expectations. We don't need it coming during the day.

Id prefer it at night too, trust me, and I dont have high expectations set. But this idea that sun angle is going to hinder snow from accumulating is ridiculous. Maybe on busy roads or certain paved areas, but thats it. Snow will be sticking on grass/cold ground with temps in the 20s.

[Stebo]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Id prefer it at night too, trust me, and I dont have high expectations set. But this idea that sun angle is going to hinder snow from accumulating is ridiculous. Maybe on busy roads or certain paved areas, but thats it. Snow will be sticking on grass/cold ground with temps in the 20s.

Cold ground? The ground isn't frozen all you need to do is look at Wednesday's wind storm to know that. Unless the snow is moderate snow, sun angle will have an effect on the accumulation.

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Cold ground? The ground isn't frozen all you need to do is look at Wednesday's wind storm to know that. Unless the snow is moderate snow, sun angle will have an effect on the accumulation.

And it won't be. We're talking light, tiny flakes here.

Personally, I want nothing more than this event to "underachieve." I'm done with this Winter and ready for Summer at this point. 

[CoachLB]

WWA for 1-3 inches lol.

[snowstormcanuck]

25 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Can you be absolutely certain that this is going to bust, however? I agree that it is likely way overdone, but don't think 4", at least, is out of the question for the GTA.

We've seen in the past where models creep back from an over-correction. At this point I wouldn't buy into the <0.10" QPF the GFS is spitting out. But still a worrying trend.

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

We've seen in the past where models creep back from an over-correction. At this point I wouldn't buy into the <0.10" QPF the GFS is spitting out. But still a worrying trend.

Something to keep in mnd too will be the strong / consistent feed of dry air from the 1036mb high to the north, which could lead to quite a bit of virga instead of actual precip.

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, Powerball said:

And it won't be. We're talking light, tiny flakes here.

Personally, I want nothing more than this event to "underachieve." I'm done with this Winter and ready for Summer at this point. 

Where are you getting tiny flakes from? Yesterday dtx mentioned good dendrites and they made no mention of flake size today. 

 

We go through this sun angle debate every year. I admit light snow is least preferential for most efficient accumulation in march, but I remain EXTREMELY skeptical that snow will have a problem accumulating on all grassy surfaces. Guess we will have to wait and see.

[Chinook]

So CLE finally (finally) went with a winter weather advisory for Toledo and all areas south of Cleveland metro. A storm of 4 to 6" with higher winds is actually a pretty significant storm for Toledo.

--

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

* Accumulations...4 to 6 inches of snow.

* TIMING...Snow will start developing Monday and continue until
  tapering off by late Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions with reduced visibility
  and snow covered roads.

* Winds...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

 

[RyanDe680]

36 minutes ago, Powerball said:

And it won't be. We're talking light, tiny flakes here.

Personally, I want nothing more than this event to "underachieve." I'm done with this Winter and ready for Summer at this point. 

^ this

[Stebo]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Where are you getting tiny flakes from? Yesterday dtx mentioned good dendrites and they made no mention of flake size today. 

 

We go through this sun angle debate every year. I admit light snow is least preferential for most efficient accumulation in march, but I remain EXTREMELY skeptical that snow will have a problem accumulating on all grassy surfaces. Guess we will have to wait and see.

We go through that debate when it is heavy snow, this won't be heavy snow... This will have a hard time being moderate snow with weakening lift and a smallish DGZ. Not sure where DTX is getting their good flake size from, the soundings don't support great dendritic growth. 

[Chicago Storm]

Interesting system that will be breaking the futility for Chicago.

Unfortunately it won't have full potential, and the system will be weakening as it slides into the area, with early transfer occurring to the developing East Coast system.

Looks like a solid 2-6" for much of the LOT CWA with the synoptic snow. Then the LE is still up in the air. Should be some enhancement during the synoptic snows, before becoming pure LES tomorrow evening into Tuesday. Probably will see a multiple band setup try to converge into a single plume. How soon does that occur is one question. Then the next question is how transient will it be. So it's definitely up in the air a bit still, but could see several inches of LE in WI/IL with it.

[Baum]

I see LOT issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch. Smart to treat this as a separate event to tonight's synoptic event. 

[Natester]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It looks like southwest Minnesota will be the big winner.  Models have been locked into that for a while.  This is the second consecutive euro run that has the drier pocket over east-central Iowa.  The system appears to get an injection of moisture as it exits my area and re-juices some over Illinois.  It has a 0.50" blob near Peoria.

Radar trends are starting to disagree with this worry.  Looks like the EURO might end up blowing chunks on this storm.

[kevlon62]

Just to mess around with accumulation potential, here is a pic from this past Thursday's sneak attack on southern tier Wisconsin counties. Plows were out. This in Lake Geneva. Definitely started with nothing.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

We've seen in the past where models creep back from an over-correction. At this point I wouldn't buy into the <0.10" QPF the GFS is spitting out. But still a worrying trend.

Agreed. I'm going with 4" for Toronto total, barring any significant changes overnight. Niagara could get 6".

[cyclone77]

12z Euro was substantially wetter for eastern SD/southwest MN/northwest IA.  Also bumped up precip a bit over much of IL/far eastern IA.  Everything pretty much looks on track, as the HRRR and RAP are showing about what was expected based on the globals.  Sometimes the models weaken these strong vorts a little too quickly, so I seriously wouldn't be surprised to see precip over-achieve as far east as northern IL.  If that indeed ends up being the case the HRRR/RAP should begin to pick up on that in the next 4-8hrs as the Monday time frame begins to show up.  

[snowstormcanuck]

8 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Agreed. I'm going with 4" for Toronto total, barring any significant changes overnight. Niagara could get 6".

I'd go 2-3" for Toronto. Hamilton-Niagara look primed for a decent LEnhS event. Could get foot lollis unless weakening trend continues and dry air eats away at single band potential.

[Snowstorms]

18z Nam remains consistent for the GTA and shows 1-1.5". Looks like its a done deal. 12z Euro will end up wrong with this one. Tough luck, lol! 

Ready for Spring! 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

18z Nam remains consistent for the GTA and shows 1-1.5". Looks like its a done deal. 12z Euro will end up wrong with this one. Tough luck, lol! 

Ready for Spring! 

Anthony Farnell is calling for about 4" for Toronto.

[Central Illinois]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
340 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...Accumulating snow across central Illinois late this evening
into Monday...

.Low pressure over central Nebraska will track toward St Louis by
midday Monday. This will bring snow to central Illinois from late
this evening through Monday. As temperatures rise into the mid to
upper 30s by Monday afternoon, the snow will mix with rain across
areas south of I-74. The snow will taper off during Monday evening,
and last longest in areas from I-74 northeast as temperatures drop
back below freezing after dark.

ILZ040>051-053-130900-
/O.EXB.KILX.WW.Y.0004.170313T0600Z-170314T0000Z/
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-
Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Macon-
340 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow, which is in effect from 1 AM tonight
to 7 PM CDT Monday.

* TIMING...Snow will develop over the Illinois river valley late
  this evening, then spread east over the advisory area overnight.
  The snow will be heaviest late tonight into Monday morning.
  Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected by noon Monday.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

A little surprised by the lack of a WWA for at least the two bottom tiers of DTX's CWA, 3-5 seems almost assured for those areas.

[Snowstorms]

52 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Anthony Farnell is calling for about 4" for Toronto.

18z RGEM through 48 hours offers some hope and has 3-5" including ratios, with ongoing precip still, and if extrapolated (beyond 48 hours) it may be around 4-7" with ratios. Lets see! 

 

 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

18z RGEM through 48 hours offers some hope and has 3-5" including ratios, with ongoing precip still, and if extrapolated (beyond 48 hours) it may be around 4-7" with ratios. Lets see! 

 

 

I just saw that as well! Could the North American models be starting to cave to those from overseas?

[snowstormcanuck]

Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I just saw that as well! Could the North American models be starting to cave to those from overseas?

Well the NAM certainly didn't cave.

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

A little surprised by the lack of a WWA for at least the two bottom tiers of DTX's CWA, 3-5 seems almost assured for those areas.

Looking like Detroit south may get a period of mod or hvy snow tomorrow morning, otherwise a long grinder. Think a total fall at DTW of around 4" looks good.

[Snowstorms]

19 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I just saw that as well! Could the North American models be starting to cave to those from overseas?

Saw this image on Twitter with a great breakdown of the existing divergence still in the models. The position of the primary low will be key in determining how much precip we get. Still got ways to go. Tonights 0z runs should help clear it up. NCEP going with a blend of 12z GFS/12Z ECMWF/EPS (not with high confidence at the moment). Though the initial S/W is fully sampled, our real determining factor is the primary low, when and where the phase occurs and where the position of the Low is. 

 

 

[ConvectiveIA]

Models have trended heavier and further south. High temps struggled to reach expected levels. Most 18z models except for NAM are now progging Des Moines to see 5-7 inches of snow into tomorrow. NWS says 3-4, and given model hype, I stand by their forecast. But all things considered this will likely be the biggest, maybe the last, snowstorm for South Central Iowa for the year.

[cyclone77]

Some of the models are bringing lake enhanced bands of snow from southern WI down through northwest IL/extreme eastern IA late tomorrow afternoon and night.  Don't think I've ever seen that happen before, so if that happens that would be very cool.  

Some nice bands up in northeast IA.  Several locations AOB 1/2 mile.  

Gonna refine my call here from 5-6" to 5", and for the QC I'm still gonna stick with 5-6".

[CoachLB]