March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup

[osubrett2]

9 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

That 12z GFS looks warm here initially corrrect? 

Yes, but we get some evaporative cooling and it does snow.

Two things restricting us: borderline temps and the heaviest QPF is staying to the west, north, and east of us.

The lake effect/enhanced being thrown back into Wisconsin and Illinois is becoming pretty pronounced and impressive too.

[buckeye]

7 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

That 12z GFS looks warm here initially corrrect? 

Yea but I think the bigger issue for limited snowfall is the same thing we've all been dealing with most of the winter...storms becoming more messy and less juiced as the time approaches.   This really is just a clipper for most of our sub and the interaction with the developing coastal has moved further and further northeast.   Cleveland and northeast OH still have a decent shot of getting something respectable. 

 

[Chicago Storm]

Futility ending event in the way, unfortunately.

Looks like it'll be a top 3 event on the season.

[TugHillMatt]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Starting to get excited as its really looking like accumulating potential is very high and there still is potential for decent accumulation. DTX disc was interesting as they were overall conservative but yet threw a few more "bullish" bones than usual. They mentioned excellent dendritites and high ratios possible, also have to watch where healthy deformation sets up if the systems do interact well. Still a lot can go wrong but we are getting closer and closer to locking in a shovelable snow.

 

Many areas of SE MI have only seen around an inch or so of snowfall in the last 5 weeks. But yet... Many areas of SE MI now have a decent shot of eclipsing 40" on the season by Tuesday night. What a wacky messed up winter!

You have had just about as much snow as I have this winter. Talk about wacky. I could end this winter with less than 50% of normal snowfall.

[hawkeye_wx]

Models are converging on a low track across southeast Iowa.  One thing I hadn't been paying much attention to is the temp.  Models suggest we could rise above freezing by midday Monday, so there will be some melting/compaction.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Best potential in about a month. But that EURO snowfall accum. map is whack.

Yes, if only that could verify. Judging by the latest trends for our region I would expect at least 2-4", maybe 6" if we are lucky.  It's looking like New Hampshire and northern New England could get clobbered.

[McDude]

42 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Futility ending event in the way, unfortunately.

Looks like it'll be a top 3 event on the season.

Any thoughts on potential lake effect?

[snowstormcanuck]

47 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Yes, if only that could verify. Judging by the latest trends for our region I would expect at least 2-4", maybe 6" if we are lucky.  It's looking like New Hampshire and northern New England could get clobbered.

Sort of reminds me of the March 2001 storm. Sfc dynamics and moisture led to a major interior NE snowstorm. However, the 700/850 defo zone associated with the ul hung back across the lakes and produced a very respectable 6-9" event for our neck of the woods. If everything falls into place could see something similar.

Looks like decent lake effect parameters for Oakville south. Could be a 10"+ event there. Too much northerly component for us to benefit though.

[snowstormcanuck]

Actually, March 2001 is not a terrible analog. The northern stream component is a little more vigorous in that event than progged to be for this one.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2001/us0305.php

[Stebo]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Starting to get excited as its really looking like accumulating potential is very high and there still is potential for decent accumulation. DTX disc was interesting as they were overall conservative but yet threw a few more "bullish" bones than usual. They mentioned excellent dendritites and high ratios possible, also have to watch where healthy deformation sets up if the systems do interact well. Still a lot can go wrong but we are getting closer and closer to locking in a shovelable snow.

 

Many areas of SE MI have only seen around an inch or so of snowfall in the last 5 weeks. But yet... Many areas of SE MI now have a decent shot of eclipsing 40" on the season by Tuesday night. What a wacky messed up winter!

Thinking 3-6 locally maybe a bit more if ratios work out in our favor. Solid event for March standards.

[Frog Town]

Would you 

15 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Thinking 3-6 locally maybe a bit more if ratios work out in our favor. Solid event for March standards.

Would you include Toledo in this prognostication?

[Stebo]

Just now, Frog Town said:

Would you 

Would you include Toledo in this prognostication?

I'd probably go lesser down there as it looks like the better amounts are in Michigan, still 2-4 would be a decent call for there. Maybe a bit more if the system shifts south or the energy doesn't transfer as quickly.

[buckeye]

Wow, Euro just shattered the dreams of Pennsylvania and northern New England weenies. ".   We still get our 2" ...yea.   Most of our sub north of i-70 is 2-6".  

Edit:  looking at a bad map.    Philly still does well but overall significant eastward shift 

[Snowstorms]

12z Euro had a notable shift Eastward with the primary Low, however the wave across the Lakes remains as being a decent 3-7"+ for much of the region.

Quite the model battle going on right now. NAM seems to be the furthest West and the Euro now seems to be the furthest East. Tonights run should hopefully shed some light.

12z Euro snow map via Twitter

[buckeye]

5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

12z Euro had a notable shift Eastward with the primary Low, however the wave across the Lakes remains as being a decent 3-7"+ for much of the region.

Quite the model battle going on right now. NAM seems to be the furthest West and the Euro now seems to be the furthest East. Tonights run should hopefully shed some light.

12z Euro snow map via Twitter

that map is crazy.  I've never seen the highest point of the Apps through WV end up with the least snow .   I'm assuming upslope snows on the west side and coastal low snow on the east side. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, McDude said:

Any thoughts on potential lake effect?

I'm not him but it certainly looks interesting and the main reason why I'm interested in this storm. The signal on the lower res models still looks impressive.  The thermodynamics become very good with time and the snow could pile up quickly with any organized band.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Thinking 3-6 locally maybe a bit more if ratios work out in our favor. Solid event for March standards.

We had 3 snowstorms in a 6 day period which lead to deep snow and bitter cold when the calendar still officially said Autumn. We had 16 days in a row without snow in January. We (locally) had about 5 whiteout lake effect squalls here in Jan/Feb. We hit 70 in February and several days in the 60s. We look to have a powder snowfall in mid March with temps in the low 20s. This winter 

[Chinook]

The 12z GFS has about 0.77" for KCLE, which may be 9.2" with a 12:1 snow ratio. Then... there's more snow for Ohio!!

[buckeye]

4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The 12z GFS has about 0.77" for KCLE, which may be 9.2" with a 12:1 snow ratio. Then... there's more snow for Ohio!!

Euro doesn't look anything like the gfs in the extended....very boring.   Hard not to believe it.

On another note,

with all the Ohio hate that gets spewed for some reason in this forum, (must be the jealousy over our amazing snow climo ),... it's nice to see an outside fan. 

[Chicago Storm]

Any thoughts on potential lake effect?

As Hoosier mentioned...Thermodynamics for the LE setup look good, waters are mild and ice-free, and you have the global models showing substantial LE by western side standards.

Im sure we'll see some crazy high QPF amounts on some of the hi-res guidance when it comes into range.

Definitely one of the best looking lake setups for this side of the lake I can remember.

[cyclone77]

3km NAM showing some nice banding along and a little northeast of the surface low track.  I'll be watching out for that.  Drops near warning criteria snowfall as a result in those areas.  

First call for here/QC is 4-5".  If we get closer and high-res models continue to indicate some good banding potential I may bump that up.  Melting/compaction will start to take place as the day goes on Monday, so we may never actually get as much as what falls in measurement.  Should be a good event though, and with light winds/wet snow falling on Monday the trees should get caked up nicely.  

[McDude]

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

As Hoosier mentioned...Thermodynamics for the LE setup look good, waters are mild and ice-free, and you have the global models showing substantial LE by western side standards.

Im sure we'll see some crazy high QPF amounts on some of the hi-res guidance when it comes into range.

Definitely one of the best looking lake setups for this side of the lake I can remember.

Best I remember was February 2003 or 04.  We got 7" synoptic snow and another 6" LES.  I think Wrigleyville ended up with 18"

[Baum]

Interesting to see what LOT does headline wise. Suspect based on long duration snowfall will hoist an advisory, but not until tonight's runs come in. Provided everything is still on track.

[blizzardof96]

12z EPS mean via ryan from twitter. Ratio's are 10:1 which is likely too low across our region.

[Chicago Storm]

Interesting to see what LOT does headline wise. Suspect based on long duration snowfall will hoist an advisory, but not until tonight's runs come in. Provided everything is still on track.

Long duration would likely mean advisory, but where LE potential is high a warning might be needed.

[Chinook]

54 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Euro doesn't look anything like the gfs in the extended....very boring.   Hard not to believe it.

On another note,

with all the Ohio hate that gets spewed for some reason in this forum, (must be the jealousy over our amazing snow climo ),... it's nice to see an outside fan. 

Well, if nobody roots for the snow in Toledo, OH, I will. It seems rather unlikely that there will be such a quick follow-up storm as the GFS is saying.

[blizzardof96]

12z model summary for YYZ/YXU(inches of liquid). My best estimates if station data was not provided.

GFS: 0.6"/0.65"

GEFS: 0.5-0.75"

EPS: 0.5-0.6"

NAM: 0.5"/0.4"

ECMWF: 0.8"/0.7" 

CMC: 0.45"/0.65"

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

12Z GFS Kuchera ratios are ranging from 15:1 to 20:1

[cyclone77]

Loving the look of this system.  Nice vorticity and nice baroclinic zone to work off of.  I smell an over-performer.

[Hoosier]

I'd be more bullish on 6+ around here but there's a couple things holding me back at this time.  One is the temps during the day on Monday as I'm concerned that there may be some struggle to accumulate during times of lighter rates (although it will be snowing on top of snow then, which helps). The other is the uncertainty on the lake effect as the plume may take a while to move this far east, and there's question on how long it hangs around.  I think parts of the LOT/MKX cwas could see storm totals into double digits on a localized basis near the lake.