March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup

[buckeye]

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

If we are going to treat this as a serious thread for the system can the banter go in the banter thread?

 

This isn't the MA forum where a half inch event translates to 50 pages an hour.   I mean c'mon, we have one thread combined for 3 threats and it's 5 pages long.  It's not like you have to scroll through pages of banter to find meteorology.   Hell if it wasn't for banter we'd have 3 posts.

Just keeping it light until it all disappears 

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

 

This isn't the MA forum where a half inch event translates to 50 pages an hour.   I mean c'mon, we have one thread combined for 3 threats and it's 5 pages long.  It's not like you have to scroll through pages of banter to find meteorology.   Hell if it wasn't for banter we'd have 3 posts.

Just keeping it light until it all disappears 

At least you picked up on my clues... and it won't disappear in the sense of no one getting anything. The western parts of the subforum are pretty locked in on a decent event.

[buckeye]

14 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I know. Me 2. I'll be looking at the stupid 00z! But ask yourself, has the GFS ever come through for you/me/us in this type if situation where it is the ONLY model giving us hope?

Not that I can recall.   I would much rather have the euro on our team then the gfs and the 84hr nam.  Euro rarely makes significant changes inside of 96 hours, especially the kind of changes we'd need for a decent event.

[ConvectiveIA]

Models had really backed off our snowfall amounts for DSM for this first wave tonight. 3 days ago it was 2-3 inches, down to 1-2 yesterday, then today down to less than half an inch, but now the post-18z RAP and HRRR are making a comeback by shifting the swath of light snow north into central to northwestern Iowa, and radar saturation evidence is looking wetter thus far as well.

[OHweather]

We have 3 pieces of energy that will interact and potentially phase, and how exactly that happens will have big impacts for the eastern portions of the subforum (especially Ohio).

#1 one will be a lobe of the polar vortex that is displaced south by ridging over western Canada.  #2 will be the polar jet shortwave...and #3 will be the southern stream "energy."

The 12z Euro appears to be a little slower/stronger with #3, allowing #2 to partially phase with it over the southeast, which causes the coastal to take over.  There's still enough lift with the lobe of the PV for a weak primary into the Ohio Valley, but the bulk of the energy is focused on the coastal low that develops and quickly deepens as soon as #2 and #3 get east of the Appalachians.  The last few GFS runs appear to be more strung out with #3 and also drop #1 in a little quicker, allowing partial phasing of #1 and #2 over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.  Eventually #3 does spark a coastal which begins to take over once #2 crosses the Appalachians, but because #1 and #2 interact more on the GFS, #2 stays farther north and the trough takes on a bit more of a negative tilt before crossing the mountains, allowing for our stronger primary low and more snow in eastern portions of the sub.

Both the GFS and Euro ensemble means (GEFS posted above) show the trough becoming neutrally tilted by the time it hits the Mississippi River and negatively tilted well before getting the Appalachians.  Upper level confluence has shifted to the north and east of Maine by this point which is in no way prohibitive for anywhere in our subforum.  A trough taking on a negative tilt before reaching the Appalachians almost always results in a decent primary low west of the Appalachians which opens the door to decent snows in the eastern Ohio Valley.  Based on the 500mb pattern alone I would be rather bullish for Ohio (especially eastern).  Normally, troughs taking on a negative tilt as they approach the Appalachians and still deepening don't result in Ohio being "skipped over" as the coastal takes over, as a trough doing that tends to allows the primary low to hold on longer and intensify until it gets to near Pittsburgh.

The main fly in the ointment here IMO is how the southern stream energy behaves.  If it is stronger and slower and phases with #2 farther west, leaving #1 in the dust, the coastal low develops quickly and the primary low does weaken quicker.  If it is farther east/weaker, or if #1 and #2 find a way to interact before #3 is involved, the primary low has time to intensify and this turns into a decent hit for Ohio.  While the orientation of the trough does suggest quite an interesting potential for Ohio ala the last few GFS runs, the potential southern stream energy interaction does cast a good amount of uncertainty into the situation.  All global models have trouble resolving convection, though historically the Euro has handled the southern stream energy a bit better.  I'd wait until we get sampling and some models that handle convection better into range before declaring this over if you are looking for a bigger hit in the eastern portions of the subforum, but I'd like to see the Euro trend that direction soon due to its typically better performance in these types of situations.

At a minimum, the polar jet shortwave/clipper should provide a nice snow into the western portions of the sub, and both models consistently have agreed on #1 closing off and dropping slowly SE across the Great Lakes, which could result in a period of moderate to heavy LES downwind of all lakes regardless of if Ohio sees a good synoptic snow or not. 

[pondo1000]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Not that I can recall.   I would much rather have the euro on our team then the gfs and the 84hr nam.  Euro rarely makes significant changes inside of 96 hours, especially the kind of changes we'd need for a decent event.

Maybe we'll get a compromise between the 2. 

[snowlover2]

0z NAM hangs on to the north solution.

[Chinook]

12z Euro: Cleveland gets 6.6", Pittsburgh, only 6.2", Columbus, 0.6", Wheeling, WV, 4.4". This storm has a lot of potential for eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, but the 12z Euro doesn't have crazy numbers west of Pittsburgh.

[Snowstorms]

14 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I don't disagree, but everyone is going to naturally focus on their backyard when it may snow there, and implying that people from a certain region discussing their area's weather hurts the forum when people from everywhere do it to some extent seems unnecessarily prejudiced.  With that said, there is a banter thread for a reason...but legitimate discussion of the weather (even if there's an IMBY focus) shouldn't be discouraged. 

Great post, I agree with everything you've said. Its a tough set-up for sure. Haven't been paying attention to weather lately due to midterm exams (final semester woes), but I wouldn't let his post get to you. I don't see anything in your post that would suggest to me your being bias. You've put a great point out, and quite frankly, we in Southern Ontario are in the same boat when it comes to how it affects Eastern Ohio. 

Any preliminary thoughts about the 0z NAM? Now its in the long range portion of the Nam, however it has a better phase of #1 and #2. Timing is an important factor in this set-up. 

[OHweather]

20 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Great post, I agree with everything you've said. Its a tough set-up for sure. Haven't been paying attention to weather lately due to midterm exams (final semester woes), but I wouldn't let his post get to you. I don't see anything in your post that would suggest to me your being bias. You've put a great point out, and quite frankly, we in Southern Ontario are in the same boat when it comes to how it affects Eastern Ohio. 

Any preliminary thoughts about the 0z NAM? Now its in the long range portion of the Nam, however it has a better phase of #1 and #2. Timing is an important factor in this set-up. 

Thanks.  At this point it's good that the NAM is stronger and farther NW with the initial/primary low if you are on the northwest edge hoping for a good snow.  The 0z Canadian and UK also trended much stronger/north with the primary low.  I somehow doubt we can get a big storm with foot plus totals of synoptic snow riding up west of the mountains, but a nice moderate synoptic storm (maybe 4-8") with some decent lake enhancement on top of it in favored spots isn't out of the question...and the NAM and Canadian suggest that places such as Detroit may be in the game too. 

[cyclone77]

Feeling better about a solid advisory event for the DVN cwa.  Southwest portions may be a bit iffy if some of the northern solutions work out however.  Looking like a solid 3-5" event for the QC points northeast.  Could approach warning criteria if we can get some good banding as DVN's disco pointed out this afternoon.  

[hawkeye_wx]

There is still model disagreement about the low track over here.  The NAM continues to gradually shift north, now tracking the surface low near/over Cedar Rapids, close to what the 12z euro showed, which would put the best snow up in se MN, ne IA, and s WI.  Meanwhile, the GFS and UK this evening are holding serve with a track into northern Missouri.  There would be an area of warm advection snowfall out ahead of the system even if the low tracks right over me, but a several-inch snowfall would require a more southern route.

[Stebo]

9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Feeling better about a solid advisory event for the DVN cwa.  Southwest portions may be a bit iffy if some of the northern solutions work out however.  Looking like a solid 3-5" event for the QC points northeast.  Could approach warning criteria if we can get some good banding as DVN's disco pointed out this afternoon.  

Yeah your area looks pretty solid, will be hard for this to change for the western folks.

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

There is still model disagreement about the low track over here.  The NAM continues to gradually shift north, now tracking the surface low near/over Cedar Rapids, close to what the 12z euro showed.  Meanwhile, the GFS and UK this evening are holding serve with a track into northern Missouri.  There would be an area of warm advection snowfall out ahead of the system even if the low tracks right over me, but a several-inch snowfall would require a more southern route.

The northern solution could end up being a good thing if we can end up near that pivot point.  Could be some pretty decent amounts just to the left of the 850mb low pressure track.  As we get closer it will be interesting to see if the high-res guidance pick up some good banding near/left of the 850/700mb lows.  I honestly won't be surprised to see some 6-8" amounts in the northern half of the DVN cwa if that occurs.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Thanks.  At this point it's good that the NAM is stronger and farther NW with the initial/primary low if you are on the northwest edge hoping for a good snow.  The 0z Canadian and UK also trended much stronger/north with the primary low.  I somehow doubt we can get a big storm with foot plus totals of synoptic snow riding up west of the mountains, but a nice moderate synoptic storm (maybe 4-8") with some decent lake enhancement on top of it in favored spots isn't out of the question...and the NAM and Canadian suggest that places such as Detroit may be in the game too. 

The 0z Euro has taken a step towards the 0Z GFS per vort maps. GFS ensembles looked great as well. I doubt we will see anywhere near the amounts parts of the NE could see, which is disappointing, but its starting to look good for much of us. We'll have a better understanding by tomorrow nights 0z runs as the initial wave comes on shore in SW BC by tom afternoon. 

Latest Euro with ratios factored in is a huge hit, via Twitter. Don't know if I'm allowed to post this.. 

 

[Snowstorms]

0z Euro has 3-5" for DTW and around 4-6" for Chicago. This would finally end the futility record which has been by far the most impressive thing this Winter. 

Still ways to go.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

0z Euro has 3-5" for DTW and around 4-6" for Chicago. This would finally end the futility record which has been by far the most impressive thing this Winter. 

Still ways to go.

I think 3-5" is a good call locally, the main question is where the fgen band sets up and how quick the low transitions.

[hawkeye_wx]

Cyclone and I are helped quite a bit by the 00z Euro's shift back south a county or two.  Its max qpf swath is now more in line with the other models, minus the north NAM.  Even though I'd like to see the snow fall during the day, the meat of the storm occurring overnight should help with accumulation over here on the west edge of the subforum.  The cold weather leading up to the storm will also help.

[Hoosier]

Went a bit off the rails I see.  I guess there hasn't been much to argue about in this crappy winter but now that we have something that looks fairly widespread, a little common sense goes a long way when posting.  Try to stay on topic and keep the banter to a minimum.  Localized/IMBY discussion is fine to a point (I think we know what's reasonable and what's not), and anyone who doesn't like it can skip over the posts.

 

[Thundersnow12]

The 0z Euro is an excellent run for all of northern Illinois and really impressive LES setup on this side as well with delta T's nearing/exceeding 20 degrees with 850's getting down to -16 by 18z Tuesday and lake water temps around 40 degrees. 

I think 3-5" is still a safe call here but can see isolated higher amounts, especially near the lake. The Euro has double digit totals in southeast WI along the shore but that might be a stretch. We will see how hi res guidance handles the LES as we get closer. 

[Chinook]

The NAM has 7.5" for the Twin Cities in the next 60 hrs, but the GFS only has 2.9". The GFS has the 850mb low farther south in western Iowa. The Euro has about 4.5" for the Twin Cities. Not sure if anyone reading this thread here is from this area, though.

[michsnowfreak]

Starting to get excited as its really looking like accumulating potential is very high and there still is potential for decent accumulation. DTX disc was interesting as they were overall conservative but yet threw a few more "bullish" bones than usual. They mentioned excellent dendritites and high ratios possible, also have to watch where healthy deformation sets up if the systems do interact well. Still a lot can go wrong but we are getting closer and closer to locking in a shovelable snow.

 

Many areas of SE MI have only seen around an inch or so of snowfall in the last 5 weeks. But yet... Many areas of SE MI now have a decent shot of eclipsing 40" on the season by Tuesday night. What a wacky messed up winter!

[snowstormcanuck]

Best potential in about a month. But that EURO snowfall accum. map is whack.

[Trent]

The top 2 CIPS analogs for this storm are still 2/14/2007 and 3/13/1993. That should certainly raise some eyebrows as we are now within 3 days. 

[buckeye]

6 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

looks like the 12z to me, that map is a mess.

The biggest diff with the 00z and yesterday's 12z is that the euro is stronger with the clipper as it passes thru IN/OH.   Precip increased as a result, but for us folks along I-70 the track allows warm enough air to give us rain and then there really isn't any interaction with the coastal until it's east of us.

For mby, I have to hope for a stronger clipper, more digging....which should also interact with the developing coastal precip quicker, (like the gfs was doing).   I guess you can say the euro stepped towards the gfs, but that doesn't mean it will keep doing it.   The 00z run might end up being the compromise.

[buckeye]

1 minute ago, Trent said:

The top 2 CIPS analogs for this storm are still 2/14/2007 and 3/13/1993. That should certainly raise some eyebrows as we are now within 3 days. 

 I posted that a few days ago and thought that was odd.    Those seemed like two very different storms.   

[TimChgo9]

Going through the TV Mets this morning, and there seems to be a general agreement on 3-5".  "Future Cast" maps, if you will, are showing about 3.5" through  the city, with some higher amounts north and west.  Enjoy it while it sticks around, because by the end of the week it will most likely be mostly gone.   

 

 

[snowstormcanuck]

Man it would be sweet for just once to get those bomb totals to come further west. Clown map from the 12z NAM over the interior NE/MA is drool worthy. 

[buckeye]

33 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Man it would be sweet for just once to get those bomb totals to come further west. Clown map from the 12z NAM over the interior NE/MA is drool worthy. 

that it would be but unfortunately there's reality and climo to deal with.

for mby...  first call CTC-2"   (ctc=car top coating).      Going bullish because most falls overnight monday 

[pondo1000]

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

that it would be but unfortunately there's reality and climo to deal with.

for mby...  first call CTC-2"   (ctc=car top coating).      Going bullish because most falls overnight monday 

That 12z GFS looks warm here initially corrrect?