buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 talk about a WTF? Pulled this off the upstate NY thread. Top analog is the Hoosier wet dream storm Feb 14 2007???? Second analog is March'93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 NAM not impressed by the coastal storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said: Interesting forecast with both system snow and lake enhancement/LES snow for northeast IL Sunday night through Monday and into Tuesday. Really need the ejecting wave to amplify as much as possible before getting into the Midwest and have the wave over the northeast exit stage right in a hurry to allow for that amplification. There are ways this can become a good event but we aren't there yet. Check out this forecast sounding over the lake on Tuesday morning. This is not modified for lake temperatures so you can imagine what it would look like if you plugged in a temp of 40 (just throwing a number out there). Sometimes you can get diurnal interference with the band at this time of year, but I've seen that more in pure LES events and maybe it wouldn't really apply in a case that is more lake enhanced vs lake effect, at least until the latter stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS still out on an island, all alone for a good OV hit for Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: GFS still out on an island, all alone for a good OV hit for Monday/Tuesday. Exactly why I'm puzzled that this thread is still active. This one ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The Sunday night/Monday system is still up in the air for my area. The GFS, GEM, UK, and NAM all have good snow, but the euro wants to take the low much farther north and screw the southern half of Iowa for the umpteenth time this winter. There must be locations in southern Iowa that haven't received 5 inches of snow all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Exactly why I'm puzzled that this thread is still active. This one ain't happening. You're acting like it's not going to snow anywhere. Some people are still interested in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Sunday night/Monday system is still up in the air for my area. The GFS, GEM, UK, and NAM all have good snow, but the euro wants to take the low much farther north and screw the southern half of Iowa for the umpteenth time this winter. There must be locations in southern Iowa that haven't received 5 inches of snow all winter. That was a sizable bump north on the EC. Will have to look at the EPS members when they come out to see if it's a trend. Op would put the QC right on the sharp cutoff, which would make it a fun forecast for the DVN office lol. Judging by how the guidance has been it will be hard to trust anything until we get into the <48hr range IMO. No matter what it's been fun to have something to track again. EDIT: Speaking of southern Iowa, I feel bad for those guys down there. They were sitting pretty for tonight's wave until it crapped the bed at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You're acting like it's not going to snow anywhere. Some people are still interested in winter. I love winter, but this one seems like DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I keep hearing 3-5" for this area. After reading this thread, not so sure. But, then, I don't see winter leaving us without giving us a present. This has been one heck of a snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said: I keep hearing 3-5" for this area. After reading this thread, not so sure. But, then, I don't see winter leaving us without giving us a present. This has been one heck of a snow drought. A bit early for amounts but 3-5" is not a terrible guess in general. The wildcard is the lake potential, which by itself could easily add a few if not several inches in some areas imo. There's a pretty good signal for enhancement in WI/IL on the lower resolution global models, so the hi-res models may be bullish once in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 How can you glean any knowledge from this discussion?Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 LOT going 3-6" possible north of I-80, then additional amounts from LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 LOL at the 18z nam Only here in Columbus can you get warm tongued on the nw side of the low. god make it stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: LOL at the 18z nam Only here in Columbus can you get warm tongued on the nw side of the low. god make it stop You need the initial OV low to go farther south or die out quicker. If it dies out quicker though, that could still end up screwing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You need the initial OV low to go farther south or die out quicker. If it dies out quicker though, that could still end up screwing you. Yea I know...and technically we are on the se side of the initial low....it's just that it's an amazing illustration of fail. Although, I'm going to extrapolate the nam beyond 84 and it appears lows phase over WV and we have January 1978 redux only displaced 100 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 More cold rain. Gotta love it. Same song all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 34 minutes ago, Guest said: How can you glean any knowledge from this discussion? Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk You can't the discussion has gone down hill since yesterday. Not that this is even that impressive of an event. The quicker it passes, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This is as close to a possible snow event I've been in about 90 days. As it stands now, could be my event of the season. Sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 39 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: LOT going 3-6" possible north of I-80, then additional amounts from LE. Seems like a reasonable layout with the track of the low/mid level features... also, temps may become marginal during the day Monday, hurting ratios/amounts near/south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 LOT just posted its wintriest forecast in nearly 3 months. Now I'll wait for Chi Storm to trash it.The end of futility is near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z gefs look very good for Ohio/sub. Lots of good hits with the primary being stronger but also not as far north as the OP, so less warm tongue. Still hard to bet against the euro though.... one of these models is gonna crash soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: You're acting like it's not going to snow anywhere. Some people are still interested in winter. Exactly. Snow a very good bet here. How much is way too uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4-9" across most of Ohio for a mean snowfall is pretty good. Says there are some biggies in the mix. Just wish we had more model support than just the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: 4-9" across most of Ohio for a mean snowfall is pretty good. Says there are some biggies in the mix. Just wish we had more model support than just the gfs. Stop doing this to yourself Buck. You're getting pulled into the vortex. Don't do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 If someone misses here they can always look at hour 170 on GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Stop doing this to yourself Buck. You're getting pulled into the vortex. Don't do it! yea I know, I'm fck'n schizo when it comes to this insane interest/hobby/sickness etc. There always has to be one model to keep you hooked. If this threat crashes and burns I hope it's at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, buckeye said: yea I know, I'm fck'n schizo when it comes to this insane interest/hobby/sickness etc. There always has to be one model to keep you hooked. If this threat crashes and burns I hope it's at 00z. I know. Me 2. I'll be looking at the stupid 00z! But ask yourself, has the GFS ever come through for you/me/us in this type if situation where it is the ONLY model giving us hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 If we are going to treat this as a serious thread for the system can the banter go in the banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jrad08 said: If someone misses here they can always look at hour 170 on GFS lol Seems legit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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