Baum Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 LOT just posted its wintriest forecast in nearly 3 months. Now I'll wait for Chi Storm to trash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 lol 18z runs for tonights 'event'. NAM totally shafts us and shows zip, nada, nothing. Meanwhile GFS gives us the most it's shown yet...looks like 3-4" My money is on the NAM. NAM being dry in the short range is a massive red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This would be a heck of a coup if GFS is right about this tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 gfs set up for next week reminds me of Jan'96. Leaving that weaker secondary low over the eastern OV while the coastal cranks. Creates a conveyor belt of precip back over the mountains. The main difference is the '96 storm was a lot slower helping enhance the precip transport. Loved that storm because it was a complete surprise snowstorm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: It is nothing like 1996. More like March 1971 or 1992. The positive tilted trough isn't allowing for a overly impressive system right now. Who knows if that lasts. 96 closed off and was slower. As far as 96 being impressive....that had everything to do with it's speed...or lack there of. It was only a few mb stronger than the coastal that the gfs is showing. '96 was 992 off the delmarva and then dropped to 984 off the new england coast, nice but there have been many stronger noreasters with less snow...and many stronger noreasters that didn't give us a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Take it with a grain of salt but the SREF plumes have been slowly increasing snowfall totals tonight and tomorrow from roughly East Central IN into OH N of I70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0Z NAM as expected is very amped for the wave Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0Z NAM as expected is very amped for the wave Monday So, you're saying 2" now not 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 if tonight's runs continue to build on the Mon/Tues event we may need a second thread. I'm getting bogged down on this Ohio dog turd duster event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 if tonight's runs continue to build on the Mon/Tues event we may need a second thread. I'm getting bogged down on this Ohio dog turd duster event. Agree, that Monday/Tuesday potential actually has a real potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0Z NAM as expected is very amped for the wave Monday 0z GFS is as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0z GFS is as well. Very very good step in the right direction! First run I've been excited for in the last 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 As Buckeye mentioned earlier, definitely some similarities to January of 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Agree, that Monday/Tuesday potential actually has a real potential. you think this has more room to come west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 you think this has more room to come west? Tough to say, we'd actually need some PNA ridging in front of it and with that piece diving through the south that all but eliminates that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 the canadian blows. It's a run of the mill noreaster that just drives up the coastal plain. But it's been doing weird things with developing a low in the gulf which no other model is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The ukie and the ggem don't want to play ball with the more amped up gfs....that's a big red flag. You'd expect one of those models to sniff out an amped up storm by now. Me thinks the gfs might be mess'n with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The ukie and the ggem don't want to play ball with the more amped up gfs....that's a big red flag. You'd expect one of those models to sniff out an amped up storm by now. Me thinks the gfs might be mess'n with us. Fine with that too, big storm or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Fine with that too, big storm or nothing. actually ukie is amped but it's delayed. Hard to tell what happens between 96 and 120 but at 120 there's a 987 low off the benchmark....boston looks to get another blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 for sh*ts and grins, and the fact it's all we got, i have to bring to the attention of my Ohio brethren that there is one lonely 00zgefs member that brings a 973 to just east of Pittsburgh....it's like it gave us a wink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 As it stands right now northern IL would look to be in line for 2-3" from a long duration type snow from the 2nd wave. With how abysmal the models handled the first wave I'm not going to hold my breath. Seriously wouldn't be surprised if this one dissolves before our eyes in the next several runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What's the latest Euro showing for the Monday-Tuesday system? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Interesting forecast with both system snow and lake enhancement/LES snow for northeast IL Sunday night through Monday and into Tuesday. Really need the ejecting wave to amplify as much as possible before getting into the Midwest and have the wave over the northeast exit stage right in a hurry to allow for that amplification. There are ways this can become a good event but we aren't there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The ukie and the ggem don't want to play ball with the more amped up gfs....that's a big red flag. You'd expect one of those models to sniff out an amped up storm by now. Me thinks the gfs might be mess'n with us. NAM seems to be in line with GFS. Euro has been bad this winter with these clipper type systems so my money is on GFS/NAM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wish I could lock in 6z gfs for mon and tue. Half inch of qpf with temps in the low 20s. Only 15 more runs to go, so it can only change 15 times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The winter of 2016-17 model suckage continues for MBY: Wave #1 (last night): BUST Wave #2 (Saturday): BUST Wave #3 (Mon-Tue): ? My face won't be turning blue from breath-holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What's the latest Euro showing for the Monday-Tuesday system? Anyone? If it was a match.com profile, the pic would look like Rosie O'Donnell when the alarm clock goes off. It's bad. Lots of space between the coastal and the northern piece. So light snow to about Chicago, then a huge hole of craptastic until the MA. It's nothing like the GFS, closer to the uk and ggem but still quite a bit different. Have no idea why I'm being pulled into this when I know it ain't gonna end pretty. I think it's tax preparation procrastination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wait for the sampling....then implode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wait for the sampling....then implode Sampling or or no sampling, we all know the outcome here. The GFS is NOT scoring a coupe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 36 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Sampling or or no sampling, we all know the outcome here. The GFS is NOT scoring a coupe. Couldn't agree more... just saying until the sampling is done we always have a hail mary in our back pocket especially when there is a wave directly in front of the one we're interested in. Also there is some uncertainty when it comes to transferring energy to a coastal low...(Although we usually almost always get shafted in these circumstances) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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