Chicago Storm Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 LES is actually now making a run towards the STL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 201 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 .SHORT TERM... 200 AM CDT Through tonight... We have evolved from lake effect showers and several multi band structures with our low level flow to more a several single band structure (the first one emanating from Lake Huron, the second from northern Lake Michigan) now that the low level flow has shifted more full fetch parallel and you can see the convergence axis well in the near lakeshore observations. This first main band has had 35-40 dBz echoes which is extremely high for snow and indicated of the ongoing heavy snow. Thermodynamically this is prime time for lake effect to produce 2" per hr snowfall rates with very steep low level lapse rates, and high inversion heights, with this inversion height even high enough with the low level CAPE to produce lightning (reported on NLDN near Bloomingdale not around 1230 am). UGN (Waukegan) has been reporting 1/2SM tempo 1/4SM in snow, with wind gusts to 40-45 mph possibly occurring at times in the band. Earlier snow showers outside of the main band currently on KLOT radar have weakened somewhat, and convective allowing models this fairly intense band to continue shifting into southern Cook County and shortly thereafter into Lake County Indiana, following the better convergence axis, though what is amazing is this band is extending southwest through almost the entire CWA, with Morris in Grundy county even reporting 3/4SM vsby in the snow. The band will likely become a bit more progressive as it does so thus the rates may still be intense but not last quite as long. The cold upper level low to our north will only slowly shift southeast into lower Michigan today, which will keep the cold airmass in place and support a favorable atmospheric setup for continued lake effect snow. We do lose the strong convergence signal on the Illinois side where snow would likely become more loosely organized, but the main band across the lake appears to refocus again across Cook County and Lake County Indiana later this morning. While the moisture layer is slightly shallower, the lake effect parameters are still rather impressive. Then this evening we will start to feel the drying and subsident influence of high pressure to our northwest across Illinois, but then as low level winds shift more due northerly and somewhat convergent over the center of the lake, the concern for moderate to heavy lake effect snow will shift into Porter County, Indiana and neighboring LaPorte. There is a several hour period, per forecast soundings, of similar lake effect parameters with regards to the steep lapse rates, high (though slightly lower than currently) inversion heights and some lake convergence to focus into a single band. The prime window is a 3z-9z or a late evening to early morning period. We will likely have a Lake effect advisory or warning going for Porter for something on the order of 4-8" or so. Will update this discussion after this decision and any initial headline changes. KMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 LOL an inch and change. Maybe 1.5" out there. Underwhelming to say the least. Looks like I picked the wrong storm to take a semi-interest in. Oh well. Always next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 57 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: LOL an inch and change. Maybe 1.5" out there. Underwhelming to say the least. Looks like I picked the wrong storm to take a semi-interest in. Oh well. Always next year. The bottom really fell through on this one. Dad reporting 4" in Oakville. About 2.5" here in Guelph. Environment Canada saying they've received reports of 8-12" in Hamilton so I guess LES will save the forecast in the end for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Finished with 1.4" LE snow from last night. Probably never see that again in my lifetime. 6.1" storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 ORD with an overall total of 7.1" as of now, 4.6" worth of LES.LES finally settled in for a while, but ORD missed out when the plume was at its peak and stalled NW of there earlier in the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Was ripping a while ago (at work near IGQ). Intensity has decreased for now but the heavier returns are close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: ORD with an overall total of 7.1" as of now, 4.6" worth of LES. LES finally settled in for a while, but ORD missed out when the plume was at its peak and stalled NW of there earlier in the night. Some LES amounts in the 8-9" range north in Lake county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Overnight and this morning lake effect snow made it as far west as near Iowa City and as far southwest as the STL area/W. MO.Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 About 8.5" of lake effect, still coming down but pretty showery in nature. Probably close to 11" OTG. Roads still snow covered around town, plenty of spinouts. Despite it being a fluffy lake snow, the bottom few inches was slushy due to the warm driveway melting it, making it a chore to remove. Here's my cam, but can't see too much because the snow is piled so high in front of the window: http://ustre.am/16Txc Probably the best LES event I've seen in northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just pouring snow, basically straight down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 This looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Don't see heavy snow with zero wind very often. Tougher to get the visibility requirement. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIGQ.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 We're getting some pretty heavy squalls over the past hour. Still accumulating efficiently. I'll probably have to get back out there once this band moves through, figured I was done. Live cam: http://ustre.am/16Txc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Don't see heavy snow with zero wind very often. Tougher to get the visibility requirement. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIGQ.html I'm just down the road. Feels like this has been in the sweet spot this morning. Very few breaks over the last several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, btcs31 said: I'm just down the road. Feels like this has been in the sweet spot this morning. Very few breaks over the last several hours. After this band moves through, should be more showery/intermittent. I'm curious about what happens tonight though as we may see better organization into a dominant band. Should get Lake county for a while even if the better show ends up eastward into Porter/Laporte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Please tell me baum got in on that LES! Storm total snowfall imby was 5.6" with DTW 5.3". Mine is the highest on the PNS but per facebook several 6 inch reports. It appears that 4-6" fell in eastern Washtenaw, extreme southern Oakland, extreme northern Monroe, and all of Wayne County. Most ot the rest of SE MI appeared to have 2-3". Kudos to the models who literally had a blob of higher qpf over Wayne County. They actually sniffed out the Erie seeding. Winter wonderland out there, looks great!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 btcs, what would you say since early this morning, around 6"? I'm eyeballing out the window so it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Second plume of LES pushing into NE. IL now.Should be able to tack on some additional accumulation with it for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Impressive but I believe this. It was barfing snow PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1143 AM CDT TUE MAR 14 2017 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1100 AM SNOW 1 NNW MUNSTER 41.56N 87.51W 03/14/2017 M4.4 INCH LAKE IN COCORAHS SNOW FELL IN ONE HOUR. 9.5 INCHES OF SNOW ON GROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 LOT calling for 5-10" additional in Lake county IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Ended up with 2" even here, hopefully it melts fast since it is nothing appreciable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Second plume of LES pushing into NE. IL now. Should be able to tack on some additional accumulation with it for ORD. Getting hammered by these LES showers. I measured 10" 15 mins ago, probably 10.5" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Well Lansing managed like an inch. Maybe. This was a joke. The flakes were so small all day, probably like 1mm diameter. Lets bring on thunderstorms now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: Well Lansing managed like an inch. Maybe. This was a joke. The flakes were so small all day, probably like 1mm diameter. Lets bring on thunderstorms now. Yeah, we got like 2 inches over here. Yet another pathetic event with obviously no lake involvement for here. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Cool to see lake effect flurries travel down to central Illinois, not very often we see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I don't know wtf is going on with the DVN snow report. They reported 5.8" yesterday morning, and then 6.9" yesterday afternoon. Picked up 0.2" after midnight from the LE stuff, and yet their storm total is only 6.1"? Somehow they lost an inch in there lol. This was from yesterday MLI picked up 1.1" from the LE snow late last night/this morning. Storm total ended up at 5.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 12 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: LOL an inch and change. Maybe 1.5" out there. Underwhelming to say the least. Looks like I picked the wrong storm to take a semi-interest in. Oh well. Always next year. I've measured 2" at m place. A disappointment, for sure, but not a total bust. It looks like Montreal is in in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 ORD finished with 7.7"9.3" at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 How far is Chicago from the seasonal average now? Wouldn't it be funny if Chicago ended with above average snow for the season after the "snow drought"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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