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March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup


Hoosier

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26 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

This reminds me a bit of the superstorm of 1993. Toronto was just grazed by that storm, but Ottawa got about 18".

There's always next year... right? 

Latest HRRR barely has precip in Toronto, lol. Storm is tucked in on the coast, classic Nor'Easter for them. One day we'll get our Apps runner. 

 

 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
850 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.UPDATE...
850 PM CDT

No big changes planned to going forecast at this time.

Lake effect snow has been blossoming this evening, largely
consisting of multi-banded structure into NE IL and SE WI as the
previously semi dominant single band over SE Wisconsin weakened.
The array of hi-res model guidance is in good agreement in
depicting strengthening low level convergence through the night
with already favorable LES parameters actually growing even more
favorable with time. Eventually, would anticipate this multi-
banded LES structure to begin to transition back to a more
dominant and intense single band, though how long that process
takes to occur is the big question.

Given recent observational trends, increasingly leaning toward a
later development of the single banded structure, possibly not
until closer to sunrise. The more multi-band structure should
result in a more widespread snowfall, but likely less intense
snowfall rates. Snowfall intensity/rates will increase
significantly when single band eventually develops, with snowfall
rates exceeding 2"/hour likely at that time.

The later the transition to single band occurs, the likely farther
east placement of the heaviest totals. Starting to look like the
highest totals tonight into Tuesday could be across eastern and
southern Cook County, though Lake County IL is not quite out of
the woods yet.

Have decided to add Lake Co IN into the warning as such strongly
favorable parameters will likely keep the intense snow rates going
through at least midday tomorrow with a good chance of at least 6
inches of snow in northwestern Lake Co IN and double digit totals
not out of the question by late tomorrow afternoon.

LES should begin to weaken somewhat tomorrow afternoon, but
continue into tomorrow evening. Parameters tomorrow night again
look quite favorable for heavy lake effect snow. While inversion
heights will be somewhat lower and we`ll lose the added synoptic
ascent, instability and low level convergence look stronger than
tonight. We are far enough out that there is an urgency to issue
any headlines for Porter Co, but this is something the midnight
shift will likely have to contend with. Will leave the expiration
for Lake Co the same at 06z tomorrow night, but that may be a bit
soon and could need refining tomorrow.

Will get updated WSW shortly, updated grids and forecasts will
follow, though perhaps not quite as quickly!

Izzi
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7 minutes ago, tuanis said:

 

Fire hose fail? Was thinking we'd see a well defined single band by now.

Oops. I'm in a mini-band currently but waiting for the "fire hose" IF it happens lol. Imo, I think the band dropping down from N Lake will restrengthen/combine with the current one affecting N Cook and become the main one around Lake and Cook Counties. Just my hunch

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49 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

There's always next year... right? 

Latest HRRR barely has precip in Toronto, lol. Storm is tucked in on the coast, classic Nor'Easter for them. One day we'll get our Apps runner. 

 

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/841408137391419397

 

If this happens, might not be as big a bust as you think.

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

^Nice pics guys.

This is the first legit lake effect snow I've ever seen fall here.  I've seen a few flurries make it this far west before, but never anything more than that.  It's coming down pretty nicely out there right now, and has re-whitened up the pavement.  Pretty impressive little event.

 
 

Agreed^. The LE squall in N Lake Co is becoming more and more organized. I would keep an eye out for that.

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I'm impressed by the LES making it all the way into Iowa.  That's decent (but certainly not unprecedented) inland penetration...what's odd is getting a favorable environment for LES and decent inland penetration on an ENE wind. 


It has made it as far west as I have ever seen, closing in on Iowa City now, and likely will make it into NW. Missouri.

And as you mention, it's definitely impressive with a ENE wind. Feeds off of Huron and Erie are helping though.
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13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like the main plume is finally congealing over the lake, with a dual feed from the length of Lake Michigan, also coming in from Lake Huron.

High rates and rapid accumulation incoming, especially if it's not too transient.

right on que the heavy lake county band started here came in as a wall of heavy snow!!!

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

^Nice pics guys.

This is the first legit lake effect snow I've ever seen fall here.  I've seen a few flurries make it this far west before, but never anything more than that.  It's coming down pretty nicely out there right now, and has re-whitened up the pavement.  Pretty impressive little event.

Thanks! Lake effect is awesome. It has saved our winter here this year. Even this far away from the belts "mood flakes" are always there to give that winter feel when making nature won't cooperative synoptically.

 

Storm total here 5.5" which is better than I expected. Looks and feels like the dead of winter. I'm very pleased.

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