March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup

[homedis]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd say the maps are less useful than usual in a case like this, but it gives a broadbrush idea.  People want to know how much snow is on the way so you have to attempt a forecast at some point.  Can't just throw your hands in the air and say we have no clue.  They have been mentioning the typical uncertainties with LES and hopefully that gets passed down to TV mets, etc, especially since it's involving a population that isn't as LES savvy as people in the snow belts.

 

Agreed. The best thing to do at this point is nowcast lol.

[homedis]

LES in SE Wisconsin is really coming together into a line now. I could totally see the snow nearing/reaching the IL/IA border. 

[tuanis]

1 minute ago, homedis said:

LES in SE Wisconsin is really coming together into a line now. I could totally see the snow nearing/reaching the IL/IA border. 

Convergence should really pick up as fetch increases and the upstream cold air mass filters in over the coming hours. Hoping to see that classic "fire hose" signature by the time it crosses the state line later this evening.

[Snowstorms]

20z HRRR came in drier of previous runs for the GTA, ever so slightly. As did the 18z RGEM.

Having doubts this will pull off even 4.0". Bust potential exists at this point in time.

 

[harrisale]

Lake Ontario band has some nice radar presentation today.

 

[snowstormcanuck]

4 minutes ago, harrisale said:

Lake Ontario band has some nice radar presentation today.

 

 

That band grazed downtown Toronto earlier. We were getting some decent rates then. Now it's the softest of snizzles.

I thought 6" was doable do to the long duration but we're going to need something more than this to make it happen.

[harrisale]

Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

 

That band grazed downtown Toronto earlier. We were getting some decent rates then. Now it's the softest of snizzles.

I thought 6" was doable do to the long duration but we're going to need something more than this to make it happen.

Should get into some more consistent snow as the system slides east and the transfer begins. The primary low is still down around southern IL so there's still time to tack on some more snow. 

[Snowstorms]

21 minutes ago, harrisale said:

Should get into some more consistent snow as the system slides east and the transfer begins. The primary low is still down around southern IL so there's still time to tack on some more snow. 

Latest RAP coming in drier than previous runs as well. Having second thoughts about this being anything more than 2-4" for the GTA, at best. Hamilton may still get some decent snow due to LES enhancement but synoptic snow is trending lower with each run..

 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

21 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Latest RAP coming in drier than previous runs as well. Having second thoughts about this being anything more than 2-4" for the GTA, at best. Hamilton may still get some decent snow due to LES enhancement but synoptic snow is trending lower with each run..

 

I certainly doubt that Niagara will see the 40cm/ 18" that Anthony Farnell is calling for!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

20z HRRR came in drier of previous runs for the GTA, ever so slightly. As did the 18z RGEM.

Having doubts this will pull off even 4.0". Bust potential exists at this point in time.

 

Have to say that I'm not feeling this storm either. It just feels like a bust is on tap. I'll say 4" max. Canuck might see that in Etobicoke, but I think Scarborough and Markham are more likely to see 2 or 3".

[Snowstorms]

20 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Have to say that I'm not feeling this storm either. It just feels like a bust is on tap. I'll say 4" max. Canuck might see that in Etobicoke, but I think Scarborough and Markham are more likely to see 2 or 3".

21z RAP barely has 2" with regular ratios and around 3-4" with 15:1 ratios, assuming they remain 15:1. These type of events rarely ever pan out for us as the northern wave practically dries up as the coastal takes over.

It'd be safer to say Toronto could end up closer to 2" at this point in time. There will be alot of disappointments/busts tomorrow. If this occurs, practically every model, esp. the Euro and SREF, will have busted for the area. NAM remained on the drier side and that seems to be the likely outcome by tomorrow this time. 

Were riding a thin line, I have huge doubts. 

Edit: See link below, great observation, potential saving grace? Lets see! 

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/841418313620168704

 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

21z RAP barely has 2" with regular ratios and around 3-4" with 15:1 ratios, assuming they remain 15:1. These type of events rarely ever pan out for us as the northern wave practically dries up as the coastal takes over.

It'd be safer to say Toronto could end up closer to 2" at this point in time. There will be alot of disappointments/busts tomorrow. If this occurs, practically every model, esp. the Euro and SREF, will have busted for the area. NAM remained on the drier side and that seems to be the likely outcome by tomorrow this time. 

Were riding a thin line, I have huge doubts. 

Edit: See link below, great observation, potential saving grace? Lets see! 

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/841418313620168704

 

On the accuweather forums someone from Hamilton is rep0orting 6" just from the squall, while a poster from Mississauga is reporting 5".

[Chicago Storm]

LES is approaching the IL/IA border and cycloneville.

[Snowstorms]

5 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

On the accuweather forums someone from Hamilton is rep0orting 6" just from the squall, while a poster from Mississauga is reporting 5".

Wow! Quite the LES band for them. East Winds are very rare, great for them to score some nice snowfall. It looks like regions affected by this LES band may reach 10-12" once its all said and done tomorrow. 

You can see the latest RAP here;

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017031322&fh=4&r=conus&dpdt= 

The differences are easily visible between prior runs and the current run. In fact the latest is even drier, lol. Huge bust is in the works. NAM will score big on this one. 

 

[Hoosier]

We'll see how it goes but I'm a little more optimistic than earlier on parts of Lake county Indiana getting into warning criteria. Should get a burst of heavy snow toward morning as the band swings south... then possibly a break before more snow. Looking at progged wind fields/convergence, this setup shouldn't be in a hurry to translate east during the day tomorrow... and though the band(s) may not park overhead for several hours at a time, I think it could be long enough to allow for some warning criteria amounts.  

[Ottawa Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Wow! Quite the LES band for them. East Winds are very rare, great for them to score some nice snowfall. It looks like regions affected by this LES band may reach 10-12" once its all said and done tomorrow. 

You can see the latest RAP here;

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017031322&fh=4&r=conus&dpdt= 

The differences are easily visible between prior runs and the current run. In fact the latest is even drier, lol. Huge bust is in the works. NAM will score big on this one. 

 

Yes, the funny thing is how the media has people thinking it will be the biggest storm of the season for Toronto. lol This could be the biggest bust since December 30, 1997. On that day 30 cm (1') was forecast for Toronto...and we got flurries.

[Jackstraw]

Off topic for us but that coastal low is starting to look insane.  Beginning to wonder if the NAM put down it's crack pipe.

[cyclone77]

23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

LES is approaching the IL/IA border and cycloneville.

 

Yep starting to spit some small flakes here.  Feels like I'm in lower Michigan lol.

[Snowstorms]

20 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Yes, the funny thing is how the media has people thinking it will be the biggest storm of the season for Toronto. lol This could be the biggest bust since December 30, 1997. On that day 30 cm (1') was forecast for Toronto...and we got flurries.

Feb 2011 Groundhog storm was a decent bust too. Ended up between 4-6" when just 12-24 hours prior, models had nearly triple that in the GTA, lol. 

Latest HRRR barely has 2" under 10:1 snow ratios and around 3.0" using 15:1 snow ratios. I wouldn't be surprised if some regions barely reach 2.0". Great work by NAM and a huge bust for Euro/SREF.

To be honest, I just want this Winter to be over now. To many disappointments after December. You'd think we'd a catch a break eventually, but its the NE that continues to cash-in, lol. Oh well!

 

[nwohweather]

Impressive LE happening here in Toledo. Tons of wind coming out of the east


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[snowstormcanuck]

41 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Yes, the funny thing is how the media has people thinking it will be the biggest storm of the season for Toronto. lol This could be the biggest bust since December 30, 1997. On that day 30 cm (1') was forecast for Toronto...and we got flurries.

Lol it's really not going to be that bad of a bust. EC was calling for 10-15cm...we're at about 2 now. We'll definitely get to the 6-8cm range. That's a bust, but not to the magnitude of what you're describing.

I think a lot of people were thinking this was going to be a foot+ storm for us. That's the problem with twitter and some of these media outlets.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Lol it's really not going to be that bad of a bust. EC was calling for 10-15cm...we're at about 2 now. We'll definitely get to the 6-8cm range. That's a bust, but not to the magnitude of what you're describing.

I think a lot of people were thinking this was going to be a foot+ storm for us. That's the problem with twitter and some of these media outlets.

Point taken. I guess it's just that I was hoping for 6".

[snowstormcanuck]

2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Point taken. I guess it's just that I was hoping for 6".

No...that was a reasonable expectation. Still possible though unlikely.

But GHD 2011, Non-snowstorm of February 2012, Phantom Bomb of February 2009, April 2012 melt on contact fiasco...these are all way bigger busts than what this will end up being.

[blizzardof96]

28 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

No...that was a reasonable expectation. Still possible though unlikely.

But GHD 2011, Non-snowstorm of February 2012, Phantom Bomb of February 2009, April 2012 melt on contact fiasco...these are all way bigger busts than what this will end up being.

This X100.

[blizzardof96]

Classic LE "snake" structure on King City radar with the NE flow. Doesn't happen all that often.

[tim123]

Entire state of ny under state of emergency

[Ottawa Blizzard]

40 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

No...that was a reasonable expectation. Still possible though unlikely.

But GHD 2011, Non-snowstorm of February 2012, Phantom Bomb of February 2009, April 2012 melt on contact fiasco...these are all way bigger busts than what this will end up being.

Again, point taken. I'd forgot about the Phantom bomb of February 2009.

 

If this happens, though, we may be able to get the 6".

 

[Toronto4]

Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Again, point taken. I'd forgot about the Phantom bomb of February 2009.

 

If this happens, though, we may be able to get the 6".

 

I haven't posted much this winter, but I have been following along. Anyways, this system is quite complex. So many things in play. I wouldn't be surprised if there are more curveballs thrown, such as the coastal storm spreading Atlantic moisture tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. If that's the case, then Toronto will do fine, though 6" will be tough to reach. Maybe 4" at best.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This reminds me a bit of the superstorm of 1993. Toronto was just grazed by that storm, but Ottawa got about 18".

[tim123]

What did Toronto get in 93. Rochester ny got 24