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March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup


Hoosier

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm due west of downtown.  The north side did very well during the initial burst.

Oh, so you're not that far from me.  I was on the fringe of that initial burst and for a period of 50-60 minutes it was puking snow.  I live right along 1st Ave near Coe College.  Jealous of what Central City got...

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33 minutes ago, tuanis said:


Ballsy forecast. I'd cut those in half and hope for the best.

I'm thinking the higher amounts play out (6+) but probably on a smaller scale than that map. Things would have to go just right for the entire lakeside area from southeast WI to the south side of Chicago to get 6+.  

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Analyzing surface obs, the trough seem to be slightly further West than modeled, towards SE USA, while the s/w continues to develop (eventual phase later). Such a development could have a slight implication on the track than what is being modeled, but we wait and see how this develops thru today. 

18z HRRR has 2.5" down at YYZ by 9z. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, homedis said:

2:20 pm update to snowfall map. More in line with what Hoosier and Tuanis were thinking. Tuanis' approx. location in further north red dot while my location is the south red dot. Still in bullseye but we will see :)

TotalSnowB2_Fcst_48hrs.png.d1cd532d360c0de9f110049e169212aa.png

 

 

Will be interesting to see what they do with headlines.  I would think advisory at least for Will and Lake county Indiana.  Porter is trickier as there's more time before it gets there.

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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just got home. About 4 inches here, lots of drifting, roads still bad, powder heaven. Does not feel like mid-March, thats for sure. Going to go out and enjoy the snow for a bit, still coming down good. Lake Erie has enhanced snow over the heart of metro-Detroit today.

Weird that it had more trouble sticking on the pavement here even with temps in the 20s and earlier timing.  Maybe rates were better in your area?

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12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just got home. About 4 inches here, lots of drifting, roads still bad, powder heaven. Does not feel like mid-March, thats for sure. Going to go out and enjoy the snow for a bit, still coming down good. Lake Erie has enhanced snow over the heart of metro-Detroit today.

wow...you guys did great.

considering how anemic the radar has looked

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Snow is really melting here.  Only 30 degrees, but we've already lost close to 3", and down to 2".  0.18" has melted through the rain gauge so far.  

DVN ended up with 6.9", and MLI 4.8".  Pretty respectable, and a nice way to say goodbye to winter.  

 

EDIT:  Have been shooting a time lapse since yesterday evening before the snow started.  Tried out the "night lapse" feature on the new gopro.  

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Measured 2.2" here, giving us the "biggest" snowfall of the entire winter season 2016-2017, beating out 1.5" from February 9th. 

 

Roads are are just mainly wet, with some minor slop in turn lanes, that's about it. Radar indicating things are about done here. 


2.5" here....Springfield had 3.5"


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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Text is bullish, calling for 5-10" and possibly locally higher.

That definitely seems probable wherever the line ends up sticking. I think they made an error saying they added a LE Advisory for Lake County Illinois, they probably meant Indiana

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LOT

The main challenge with lake effect snow events such as this is
forecasting snowfall accumulations over a broader area. Because
the heaviest snow showers are likely to be in a band only about
around 15 miles wide, there is likely to be considerable
variability in snowfall amounts over short distances. Some of
this large variably is likely to occur over the Chicago area.
Areas falling under the heaviest band of snow, which at the
present time looks to favor portions of Cook...eastern Dupage and
at least southern Lake county Illinois, a good 5 to 10 inches with
isolated higher amounts appear likely.

The main band of heavy lake effect snow appears that it may
gradually shift southward or waver across Cook and Dupage
counties through the night. This would suggest that the lake
effect showers will begin to impact portions of Will and Lake
county Indiana, especially later tonight into Tuesday. Additional
heavy bands of snow may then shift back over far northeastern
Illinois by Tuesday morning. For this reason, it appears that
there could be a prolonged period or two of heavy lake effect snow
over portions of the warned area, and this could result in
isolated higher amounts than currently forecast.

Lake effect showers will be possible through Tuesday for
northeastern Illinois, before the main focus for lake effect
begins to shift over northwestern Indiana. Additional headlines
for lake effect may be needed for more counties in Indiana, but
since most of these areas will not get in on most of the lake
effect snow until either later Tuesday or Tuesday night, we have
opted to hold off on this for now. Its even possible that the
current advisory in effect for Lake county Indiana may need to be
upgraded to a warning if it becomes apparent that heavier snow
will fall there on Tuesday.
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3 minutes ago, Guest said:

Those LOT maps are worthless. No clue how much will fall and where. Its Lake effect good luck predicting where it will fall.

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They're definitely not worthless. Not saying they are going to predict exactly where the main band is going to end up, but it follows/depicts the newest guidance trends.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

wow...you guys did great.

considering how anemic the radar has looked

If you looked at local radar up here you would see that Lake Erie was seeding the snow in the DTW-ARB corridor. An unexpected treat. They should finish with at least 4-6" from Ann Arbor to Detroit, perhaps even more as radar keeps blossoming over the same area. DTW reported moderate snow often, think they went heavy for a time too. My morning commute sucked but its a price I gladly pay for snow.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDTW.html

 

17202830_10108007588175923_1752628537157

 

17265295_10108009108988203_5150190900654

 

17264611_10108009108993193_5625393072915

 

 

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13 minutes ago, homedis said:

They're definitely not worthless. Not saying they are going to predict exactly where the main band is going to end up, but it follows/depicts the newest guidance trends.

I'd say the maps are less useful than usual in a case like this, but it gives a broadbrush idea.  People want to know how much snow is on the way so you have to attempt a forecast at some point.  Can't just throw your hands in the air and say we have no clue.  They have been mentioning the typical uncertainties with LES and hopefully that gets passed down to TV mets, etc, especially since it's involving a population that isn't as LES savvy as people in the snow belts.

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