Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Well, we have general model agreement on a storm, sans the UKMET, and it looks like you won't have to go to the northern tier to see it. Models have a low amplitude wave emerging into the Plains this weekend. The sfc cyclogenesis is not that impressive, but it appears like the potential is there for at least a moderate event, if not bigger. As long as the modeled pattern with downstream confluence plays out, there should be a northern limit as to how far this can go. Thus, some areas in the southern Lakes and/or Ohio Valley that have been hurting for snow should have a better shot with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Surprised it took until now for a thread to pop up. Could be a fun weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Surprised it took until now for a thread to pop up. Could be a fun weekend. Hard to be overly confident with how things have gone for the most part. As far as what can go wrong, the bigger risk with this one is probably getting sheared to death vs an amped up cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 SW burbs of Chicago checking in, explain to me what this 'snow' is that you speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Surprised it took until now for a thread to pop up. Could be a fun weekend. I refused to give this storm any validity considering we've had over 100+ inches of modeled snow and received about 6 this winter. With that being said, you can't deny the consistency for the last day on these runs and model agreement. The question IMO is going to be how each "wave" plays out as there are going to be several over a 3-5 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hard to be overly confident with how things have gone for the most part. As far as what can go wrong, the bigger risk with this one is probably getting sheared to death vs an amped up cutter. agree 100% that 500 map has buzz saw written all over it. For us here in central Ohio, that would be a rare snowstorm set up. Lows that initiate out of the central and northern Rockies tend to do one of two things. 1. Cut hard, (which this one can't do) 2. head east until the confluence that kept it from cutting in the first place shreds it into flurries. Can it happen? yes Has it happened? yes In fact I believe PDll was kind of a similar set up. I just wouldn't give it more than an eyebrow raise outside of it showing a snow storm <72 hours on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, buckeye said: agree 100% that 500 map has buzz saw written all over it. For us here in central Ohio, that would be a rare snowstorm set up. Lows that initiate out of the central and northern Rockies tend to do one of two things. 1. Cut hard, (which this one can't do) 2. head east until the confluence that kept it from cutting in the first place shreds it into flurries. Can it happen? yes Has it happened? yes In fact I believe PDll was kind of a similar set up. I just wouldn't give it more than an eyebrow raise outside of it showing a snow storm <72 hours on the euro. Basically you want the confluence to be weakening (but not too quickly) as the storm comes east, which is what's currently being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Basically you want the confluence to be weakening (but not too quickly) as the storm comes east, which is what's currently being shown. or to put it in scientific terms: thread the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 18z GFS track looks similar to 12z but the heavier snows look north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 31 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Many Gefs don't have anything. A few like the disorganized ops, a couple with a true storm that cuts up through eastern ohio. I'll take member 2 or 18 but yes not as much consistency as the 12z Gefs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Personally after having a few periods of nice warm weather, I am ready for winter to take a hike. If it was January or February I would feel different but March, it's spring time now. Plus side is that if it does hit Central Ohio it's the weekend and won't have to deal with an apocalypse style commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 hours ago, buckeye said: or to put it in scientific terms: thread the needle If it's like most modeled storms this winter, it will end up shredded like mini wheats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, IWXwx said: If it's like most modeled storms this winter, it will end up shredded like mini wheats. Lol. As screwy as this winter has been maybe they will verify. I would expect anything to get "mini wheated" this time of year so lock it in, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 00z GFS whiffs south... hello Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Nice run in csnavyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Canadian even further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 43 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Nice run in csnavyland. St. Louis is flirting with a record low seasonal snowfall total right now. The record is 1.5" and we currently have 1.4". If the trend on the Euro and GFS holds we'll have to put a pin in that one and save it for next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 hours ago, Jrad08 said: 00z GFS whiffs south... hello Kentucky It still has Cincy with 4+ inches, more in northern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Nice run in csnavyland. You got that right -- though I remain skeptical at this point given all of the dprog/dt and the unusual setup. Given that the Gulf isn't going to get scoured by the current system, there might actually be some moisture to work with, provided the wave has enough amplitude and the TPV near Nova Scotia doesn't keep trending slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 12 hours ago, IWXwx said: If it's like most modeled storms this winter, it will end up shredded like mini wheats. Someone needs to drag this winter out behind the woodshed and put a bullet in it's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 10 hours ago, Jrad08 said: Canadian even further south... As Stebo alluded to awhile back. It's kind of odd seeing this trending south with the NAO trending positive, right around neutral, at the time of the storm. AO is also positive at that time. Failure defining all odds I guess. Could we see an allusive north trend?....which hasn't happened in many years .... just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: As Stebo alluded to awhile back. It's kind of odd seeing this trending south with the NAO trending positive, right around neutral, at the time of the storm. AO is also positive at that time. Failure defining all odds I guess. Could we see an allusive north trend?....which hasn't happened in many years .... just kidding I actually think we will see a trend north, not for here, but on the coast. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Usually will tick north at 72-96hrs if it's going to but the south trend continues per the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 12z GGEM does something interesting. The system behind manages to catch up and phase into a pretty nice storm. The spacing/timing between the 2 systems does look pretty small on most guidance (maybe 24 hours) but this is an outlier solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z GGEM does something interesting. The system behind manages to catch up and phase into a pretty nice storm. The spacing/timing between the 2 systems does look pretty small on most guidance (maybe 24 hours) but this is an outlier solution at this point. That was certainly the most interesting run of any model over the last couple of days wrt those two waves. A pretty large area would get an accumulating synoptic snow and there'd probably be some lake enhancement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z GGEM does something interesting. The system behind manages to catch up and phase into a pretty nice storm. The spacing/timing between the 2 systems does look pretty small on most guidance (maybe 24 hours) but this is an outlier solution at this point. I believe the GGEM caught the southern trend first originally, so I don't think you can discount that it could be catching on to a new trend. 00z will be telling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Very inconsistent with a solution. There needs to be sampling once it's on shore to give a sense of direction IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 hours ago, OHweather said: That was certainly the most interesting run of any model over the last couple of days wrt those two waves. A pretty large area would get an accumulating synoptic snow and there'd probably be some lake enhancement too. In this winter of progressive, sheared, un-amplified solutions for any system that makes it east of the miss river....my money is on the euro's depiction of a disorganized spattering of 1010+ mb 'lows' all over the map. I think our best shot at a car-topper over the next week is on Friday. But it will most likely blossom and cool off too late for us to be anything more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 FWIW 0z NAM at 84 looks like its going to be much farther north than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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