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Mar. 6-7 Severe Risk


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Famous last words but given the current organization, I think this line may be able to get close to the IL/IN border with minimal weakening.  The HRRR does show it weakening in a couple hours or so, but it looks like it's running at least a couple degrees too cool with temperatures in eastern IL, and there should be essentially no nocturnal cooling there in the next couple hours given the very strong southerly flow.

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

It's hard to believe the tornadoes are getting this far north, this early in the season, in the middle of the night, yet again. I have actually been to Ladd IL to fill up on gas.

Small town, great chicken place there. If anything was on the ground, there is a good amount of development along and north of 80 in that area towards lasalle/39

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
140 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SANDWICH                41.65N 88.62W
03/07/2017                   DE KALB            IL   PUBLIC

POWER POLES DOWNED BY THE HIGH SCHOOL. HOME WEATHER STATION OBSERVED A GUST OF 73 MPH.


&&

$$

MTF

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
127 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 03/06/17 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...A line of severe storms tracked across eastern Iowa during
the evening on March 6, 2017.  Several tornadic storms were seen, along
with widespread damaging winds as the line moved through.

Additional information from surveys of other storms will be added
to this statement as it becomes available.

.TORNADO # 1...Muscatine Iowa...

RATING:                 EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    115 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  1.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   200 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               3

START DATE:             03/06/2017
START TIME:             1005 PM CST
START LOCATION:         1.8 SW Muscatine / Muscatine / Iowa
START LAT/LON:          41.4092 / -91.0732

END DATE:               03/06/2017
END TIME:               1010 PM CST
END LOCATION:           0.1 NW Muscatine / Muscatine / Iowa
END LAT/LON:            41.4245 / -91.0456

Tornado tracked through Muscatine touching down in Kent Stein Park,
traveling through neighborhoods, and damaging homes and businesses.
At least 2 homes lost their roofs.  Up to 80 more sustained minor
damage.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES BASED ON THE DAMAGE THEY CAUSE.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

$$

Gross
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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
127 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 03/06/17 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...A line of severe storms tracked across eastern Iowa during
the evening on March 6, 2017.  Several tornadic storms were seen, along
with widespread damaging winds as the line moved through.

Additional information from surveys of other storms will be added
to this statement as it becomes available.

.TORNADO # 1...Muscatine Iowa...

RATING:                 EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    115 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  1.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   200 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               3

START DATE:             03/06/2017
START TIME:             1005 PM CST
START LOCATION:         1.8 SW Muscatine / Muscatine / Iowa
START LAT/LON:          41.4092 / -91.0732

END DATE:               03/06/2017
END TIME:               1010 PM CST
END LOCATION:           0.1 NW Muscatine / Muscatine / Iowa
END LAT/LON:            41.4245 / -91.0456

Tornado tracked through Muscatine touching down in Kent Stein Park,
traveling through neighborhoods, and damaging homes and businesses.
At least 2 homes lost their roofs.  Up to 80 more sustained minor
damage.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES BASED ON THE DAMAGE THEY CAUSE.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

$$

Gross

Looks like the DVN office narrowly missed that other EF-2.  Passed a few miles northwest of them.

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Regarding this year's severe weather reports as a whole: The SPC web page with the tornado numbers vs time graphs shows this.  The hail & wind totals are 2544 vs an average to this date of 857 (297% of average). The tornado reports (perhaps unfiltered local storm reports?) are at 312 vs 137, which is 228% of average to date.

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I live in Muscatine, IA now and missed the tornado here by about one mile.  Was a very scary storm.  I do this for a living and I was scared, lol.  It was ominous in that it was headed right for me then it lifted.  But saw the new one form off to the East of the old dying meso, thing was ripping NE at 70-75 mph.  Saw lots of damage off highway 61 and 280/80 between here and Davenport.  NW corner of Davenport had some spotty, impressive structural damage.  

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7 hours ago, Justin said:

I live in Muscatine, IA now and missed the tornado here by about one mile.  Was a very scary storm.  I do this for a living and I was scared, lol.  It was ominous in that it was headed right for me then it lifted.  But saw the new one form off to the East of the old dying meso, thing was ripping NE at 70-75 mph.  Saw lots of damage off highway 61 and 280/80 between here and Davenport.  NW corner of Davenport had some spotty, impressive structural damage.  

Hey, we're all entitled to a little scare.  I remember the feeling I had on 6/7/2008 as that cyclic supercell was bearing down on my family and the reports were bad.  

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On 3/10/2017 at 3:01 PM, cyclone77 said:

Took these pics today about 4 miles northwest of town.  There was a tornado warning for the circulation that passed through here, but as of yet DVN hasn't confirmed a tornado.  Not sure if they surveyed this area, so sent some pics to their FB page.

v4qwxs.jpg

2me4u4w.jpg

5a5k4z.jpg

20a8ehu.jpg

1zozqxz.jpg

1z3v4pl.jpg

i39wdt.jpg

1zcn6h4.jpg

 

NWS has confirmed this as a tornado.  Rated EF-1.  Brings the DVN total for the event to 8 tors.

140d62r.jpg

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