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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I just did 3.2 billion mathematical equations in my head and my numbers say you're wrong.

It could be anywhere where this happens along the coast, Silly statement by him, This will stall wherever the ULL captures it which could even be in the maritimes where it happens a lot with these types of systems.

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

So probably similar. If a satellite hits the side of a cold cloud it is not smart enough to know that's cloud and not surface radiation it is sensing. So it assumes it is surface, displacing the satellite image features north (in our hemisphere), which by makes the wave causing the cloud to appear shallower. This becomes more of a problem the farther north you are.

Same issues can occur farther south with tall convection.

Oh, yeah ...i'd say that's hugely similar - fascinating.

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48 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

What a shift on the Euro.  I was thinking we were really going to narrow the goal posts with the 12Z runs.  Minor 50 mile changes.  Now this.  This track would agree on the long pattern of us being on the NW fringes up here.    

Yeah this was a disaster of a run without question. 

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2 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

Nice signal on 12z Euro for next Sunday.

It's been in the guidance' across the board for awhile now, ...more and less at other times.

The GEFs individual members all carry some sort of diving trough out of central Canada with varying success in spinning up a coastal next weekend. Nothing like this current one, however.

Still, should this one go on to over-perform and then we get popped in just 4 days by another plowable ordeal that's going to make this 9 day stint a pretty memorable one in my estimation.

Then I think we may be done - or seeing the light anyway.  I am not sure what the EPS derived mass field/modes are indicating, but the GEFs actually don't offer much reload suggestion after this next 7 to 10 days.  The robustness of the +PNA relaxes and the NAO tries to hang out above 0 SD... which getting toward the Equinox, those two tandem indications could mark the end/back break and a more profound recovery S of the 40th parallel.

 

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