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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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Now depending on where you live, it has the chance. If it stalls in the GOM then perhaps somewhere in Maine it could be a top 5r, or if you break it down for the month of March....then you open the door for that.  Anyways its super early for silly details...I'm just speaking in the broad sense.

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a doozy type storm, but for an all timer? I don't think so. At least for our region. 

Yeah, I think a lot of people look at this as more than it is because it's happening in mid March.

I was actually thinking this is like a March version of April 1982 with the cold air and snow, good comparison?

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Well all you hear is about March of 1993-the super storm.    It wasn't very impressive in my area of CT.    Gave me about 14 inches...then pounding sleet!!  It wasn't the storm of the century here by a long shot!! 96, 2003, 2006, 2011(twice in January), 2011 in October, 2013  in feb, even Jan 2015 was better here than 93.    But that's referred to as an all timer;  but in my opinion it was very forgettable here in Central CT!!  So the all timer thing is very subjective.  

Now I realize that they rate these on how many people they affect, but if you're talking snow...93 is way back as far as that goes here in Central CT!!     

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well all you hear is about March of 1993-the super storm.    It wasn't very impressive in my area of CT.    Gave me about 14 inches...then pounding sleet!!  It wasn't the storm of the century here by a long shot!! 96, 2003, 2006, 2011(twice in January), 2011 in October, 2013  in feb, even Jan 2015 was better here than 93.    But that's referred to as an all timer;  but in my opinion it was very forgettable here in Central CT!!  So the all timer thing is very subjective.  

Now I realize that they rate these on how many people they affect, but if you're talking snow...93 is way back as far as that goes here in Central CT!!     

the impressive thing about 93 ( I had 16 inches in Bristol) was that it was all man snow and sugar like sleet/snow

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2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

0z EPS definite tick west vs. 12z

tracks more or less over BM but then has a more NNE trajectory vs. NE at 12z

looks like most members to the left and has a few over land now

It's all about the trajectory up here.  Good news to read as one wakes up.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I approve of your 'swath of heaviest snow', Ray.  Fingers are crossed.

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You really have to start actually calling for 24-36" tomorrow morning if it keeps this look

You really don't, but we can dream that things point that way on Monday (and verification time of course!).

 

Boy, the EC winds that Ginx posted really make me want to go to Maine for this.  I don't think that's in the cards and I'm going to be mass-bound.

 

3.6/-10

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6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I approve of your 'swath of heaviest snow', Ray.  Fingers are crossed.

You really don't, but we can dream that things point that way on Monday (and verification time of course!).

 

Boy, the EC winds that Ginx posted really make me want to go to Maine for this.  I don't think that's in the cards and I'm going to be mass-bound.

 

3.6/-10

It would irresponsible not to tomorrow if things continue to hold

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Methinks GYX will adjust this in future AFD.

 

A developing
coastal low off the southeast CONUS tracks northward and parallels
the coast Tuesday. This coastal storm then slow downs over New
England Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday in response to the
evolving upper low. Models continue to differ significantly on
the surface low track. While we`ll be cold enough for snow
initially...the coastal front could spoil things near the coast
where we may change to rain for a time limiting snow totals.

 

Off to Pit2 now.  Should be there for the GFS.

2.5/-11

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I get what the weenie vet is saying, but that is mostly due to ema pinning up 30" past decade everytime they take a dump. For many folks esp west of 90, that is not the case. An 18-24" type deal  with some 30" lollies is a big effin deal and to me, that is a classic. Im sure that is the case for many of us out here. 

I do have some concerns after crunching data on my day off yesterday, i know....great use of my free time. But, we have a crapload of hours to go still. Right now, this is fun no matter what. Lets go from there. 

 

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get what the weenie vet is saying, but that is mostly due to ema pinning up 30" past decade everytime they take a dump. For many folks esp west of 90, that is not the case. An 18-24" type deal  with some 30" lollies is a big effin deal and to me, that is a classic. Im sure that is the case for many of us out here. 

I do have some concerns after crunching data on my day off yesterday, i know....great use of my free time. But, we have a crapload of hours to go still. Right now, this is fun no matter what. Lets go from there. 

 

Well not sure 30"  is happening. I also prefaced it by saying depends on where you are and if you rate it by month. But even in western areas, top 5 ever? Still don't see it. If it slows though, all bets are off. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well not sure 30"  is happening. I also prefaced it by saying depends on where you are and if you rate it by month. But even in western areas, top 5 ever? Still don't see it. If it slows though, all bets are off. 

If it slows down, bets will be on how many shots of tequilla you pound Tuesday night as you're crying in some bar in Dallas 

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